Declan Meagher is a professional gambler and author of www.learnbetwin.com. On Wednesday he successfully tipped Our Kylie (14/1) and Galway Plate winner Lord Scoundrel (25/1).
2.25 Guinness Harp Novice Chase
Tiger Roll was a decent hurdler and won his first two chase starts but could only come fourth at Killarney last time. I don’t think it was the longer trip that beat him, but that was a good race for the time of year, and this race looks easier.
Xsquared is probably the main danger having won his last four races, two over fences and two on the flat. He will need to improve again to beat a peak-form Tiger Roll though, and I think Tiger Roll is worth a small bet at the current 3-1.
3.00 Hop House 13 Handicap
Poor draw aside, one really sticks out to me in this mile-and-half-a-furlong race.
Boherbuoy easily won his maiden over this trip at Galway last year and given his middle-distance pedigree it was understandable that connections stepped him up to 11 furlongs for his handicap debut next time. However, he was a bit free and after travelling into it going well, he didn’t get home.
Next time he was a good second in a rated stakes over ten furlongs at the Curragh, but again he came there looking the winner two down, and while you couldn’t stay he didn’t stay as such, he certainly shaped like a slight drop in trip might suit.
Looking back when he won his maiden here he put the race to bed on the bend before being closed down close home, so he certainly has the speed for it. His head carriage is a little high, but he seems genuine.
The fact he hasn’t run since October is no real worry, and Wayne Lordan, who won on his stable companion Hidden Oasis last time, takes the ride on Boherbuoy instead of that one.
The current 12-1 looks much too big to me and is worth a decent bet.
3.30 Arthur Guinness EBF Corrib Fillies Stakes
This looks a pretty poor Listed race.
I tipped up Gussy Goose in the big handicap on Tuesday evening and while she only finished 14th, she travelled through the race very well but was eased after getting no run on the rail in the straight. She would have a good chance here, but the rain since is a definite worry as her best form is on better ground.
Despite the trip being on the short side, the one I like is the Mick Halford-trained Rayisa. She has been running consistently well and can jump out and make all from her draw in stall one.
I don’t think it’s huge value, but the current 7-2 looks a bit big and is worth a small wager.
4.05 Guinness Novice Hurdle
This looks a decent novice hurdle.
Delegate and Black Warrior have won their last two, Bel Sas and Exactoris are open to plenty of improvement after easy victories last time, while Thinkitplantitdoit should be suited by the step up in trip after a staying on third at Limerick. However, Carrig Cathal appeals the most.
He won his maiden in Ballinrobe before following up at Downpatrick when he found the trip on the short side but was strong at the finish, suggesting the extra two furlongs and uphill finish is in his favour for this. The horse he beat last time was just touched off in a good novice here on Tuesday and the form is strong.
Carrig Cathal looks a decent bet at the current 4-1.
4.45 Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap
Bamako Moriviere has improved for making the running the last twice and is lightly enough raced to improve again, but he will need to as he’s gone up 15 lbs for those wins. Dominating this field will be much harder.
Quick Jack won last year’s Galway Hurdle off a 12lbs lower mark. He was still travelling well when joined by Thomas Edison at the last. That one fell, leaving the way clear for Quick Jack to win comfortably.
I’d be 55-45 on who would have won, in favour of Quick Jack, as he went away for just hands and heels on the run-in. He hasn’t run over hurdles since then, but is in just as good a form on the Flat as last season. He does need to do better to defy his new mark though and he did get a perfect trip through the race last year, too.
Superb Story has improved massively since moving from the Charlie Mann yard to Dan Skelton. He easily won at Wetherby before a very good second in the Greatwood at Cheltenham in November. He was then kept for the County Hurdle in March and he rewarded that patience with a two-and-a-half length victory.
The County would be a better race than a Galway Hurdle and while Irish handicap ratings tend to be a couple of pounds lower for horses in his range, a 7lbs higher mark here still looks lenient. He’s clearly been targeted at this race, the break since March is no worry, and if there is a concern it’s the amount of rain around as soft ground is now likely, and his best from is on good to soft or good ground.
Ted Veale was third in the two-mile handicap on the Monday night at Galway last year. He followed that run by coming third in the Galway Hurdle three days later, so after coming second in the two mile handicap on Monday this year, off a mark 4lbs higher than last year, his chance in the Hurdle off just 1lb higher than last year is there for all to see. His best form in recent years has been on decent ground, although that might be just circumstance, more than preference, as he went on soft no problem a few years ago.
Clondaw Warrior has improved hugely since moving to the Willie Mullins yard, but after winning at Fairyhouse he had no excuses when beaten in a handicap at Ayr, and while that’s very decent form, and gives him a good chance of a place at least, he would need to find more to win.
Bentelimar ran really well to be fourth in a red-hot Punchestown Handicap last time out. His performance was better than the bare result too, as he made his ground out extremely wide. That was over two-and-a-half miles, but he had plenty of good form over two miles last season, so the trip off a likely fast pace should be perfect. He can be ridden up there if they don’t go quick and he goes really well on soft ground.
Modem was third to Clondaw Warrior at Fairyhouse, and while the winner came from behind him in a race where the pace was on the steady side for a big field handicap, Modem was staying on strongly at the line, suggesting a faster pace would have suited him. He then ran quite well at Punchestown, and in four flat runs since he has improved his flat mark by 10lbs. Off just 2lbs higher than for that Fairyhouse third, he wouldn’t have to carry much of that flat improvement back to hurdles to give him every chance.
Pyromaniac has won over two miles on the flat, so it was surprising he seemed to fail to stay the two mile five furlong trip over hurdles at Galway last year. He was a staying on third on his only hurdle start since at Killarney. That was after a break and he is likely capable of better having attracted the attention of the stewards with a run on the Flat recently.
Rock The World has been doing well over fences, but is reasonably handicapped on his old hurdles form, while Ancient Sands has been running consistently well, but has also gone up a good bit in the weights, and would need to find another jump in form to win this.
Moon Over Germany looks to have got a fair mark for his handicap debut, while Tigris River is still relatively unexposed and ran well after a break at Bellewstown last time.
Silver Concorde looks well in on his best hurdles form, which was a fourth in a Grade One at Leopardstown. He could also do better again based on his smart bumper and Flat form, but he got beaten in his maiden hurdle on Wednesday, and it looks like he needs better ground over hurdles. That said, a hold-up ride in a big field would suit him much better, and I wouldn’t totally rule him out if he turns up again tomorrow.
Time For Mabel has won on soft ground, but he’s taken a big step forward in form terms on his last two outings, both of which were on fast ground, so you would have to be concerned about all the rain for him.
On his best form, a mark of 133 looks fair enough for Rashaan, and he probably needed his recent run at Tipperary, when the weights wouldn’t have suited him either.
If Desoto County gets in - he’s currently second reserve - he would have a good chance on his handicap hurdle form over the winter. I thought he shaped like he wanted further than two miles when running over it, and while his run at Punchestown over two-and-a-half wasn’t as good as his earlier form, I don’t think it was the trip that beat him, he just ran a little flat. If he got a really strong pace, he’d have a chance.
I think it’s worth backing three here - Modem at 22-1, Bentelimar at 25-1 and Ted Veale also at 25-1.
Back them each-way, and it’s worth noting that the first two are available at those prices with firms offering five places, so make sure you avail of that.
