Declan Meagher is a professional gambler and author of www.learnbetwin.com.
5:15 – Colm Quinn BMW Novice Hurdle
This looks a decent novice hurdle, with Three Wise Men setting the standard with a third of eight at the Punchestown Festival.
That was only his second hurdling start. I think that form is already easily the best on offer here, and while he is without doubt the most likely winner of this, his current price of 2/1 looks about right, and it doesn’t represent much value.
At the current prices I’d rather back Gunner McGregor at 11/1, although if Three Wise Men was to drift to 11/4 or so I’d back him too.
Gunner McGregor has won both his hurdling starts so far since switching to the Sheehy yard, and was value for extra at Limerick last time, making very smooth progress out wide around the last bend, before quickly putting the race to bed when asked.
This is a better race for sure, but he still has plenty of potential to do better and at the prices he looks the best bet.
5:45 – Latin Quarter Beginners Chase
Briar Hill is the class act in this, but since lining up as favourite for the Albert Bartlett in Cheltenham in March 2014 things have gone a bit wrong for him. He fell that day, something he did again in February last season, and he has had just the one start since then.
He is easily the best horse in this on his old form, but considering he fell twice over hurdles, his jumping would be a concern on this his first chase start. The trip is also on the short side for him, and all told I couldn’t back him at the current 11/8.
I wouldn’t be strong on anything in this, but having jumped well on his chase debut last time, Draco looks the solid one at the current 9/2.
His hurdles form wouldn’t be as good as Briar Hill's but the trip is right for him, and he is more likely to run his race. Each way is probably the way to go as the place part offers good value too.
6:15 Galway – Colm Quinn BMW EBF Fillies Maiden
Yet another DK Weld favourite and Eziyra is the one to beat after a very promising first start when second at Tipperary. She probably should have won that day, but the winner got first run on her, and she stayed on well under hands and heels.
She will likely improve, but her current price of 4/6 reflects that, and I would much rather back the Aidan O’Brien-trained Hydrangea at 4/1.
She was very green when tenth of twenty-one at the Curragh on her only start, but she stayed on really well once the penny dropped.
The trip that day of six furlongs was plenty short for her, giving her middle distance pedigree, and this step up to seven furlongs is sure to suit. The Weld runner is the most likely winner, but I’d have them much closer in the market, and at the prices Hydrangea is the bet.
6:50 – Caulfield Industrial EBF Maiden
This looks a match between the Weld-trained Sikandarabad and the Jim Bolger representative Saafarr.
Sikandarabad was a very promising second on his debut at Leopardstown in June 2015. That he hasn’t been seen since means he must have had some type of a problem, but while such an absence might normally be a huge concern it is lessened by the fact his top owner still owns him, and his trainer is sending him to Galway, a meeting his maidens do extremely well at.
The form of that Leopardstown run is very strong. The winner Painted Cliffs had the benefit of a previous run and won a group two next time out.
Saafarr was flattered when fifth in a Group Three race, and is starting to looked exposed now. The form of his second at the Curragh last time would see him win an average maiden, but if Sikandarabad turns up in the same form as he was in for his debut then I don’t think Saafarr will trouble him, and the current 11/10 on him looks too big to me.
7.20 – Colm Quinn BMW Mile
The big race on Tuesday evening is a handicap over almost nine furlongs. As will often be the case this week, a Weld runner heads the market.
This time he has the current joint favourites with Ashraf and Karalara, but they are just 7/2 coupled, and that seems too short to me.
Ashraf didn’t get a much of a run at Leopardstown last time, but that was mostly due to him not going well enough to take a gap early in the straight, while Karalara, who Pat Smullen probably couldn’t do the weight on, looks harshly enough handicapped on her maiden win, and will need to improve a good bit.
Sea Wolf is third favourite but he benefited from the leaders going too quick last time, and needs to prove himself over this trip.
Two I do think are good each way bets are Creggs Pipes at 14/1 and Gussy Goose at 16/1.
Creggs Pipes has improved hugely this season, winning handicaps at the Curragh off marks of 75 and 84, before winning a listed race at Killarney last time.
The way she kept going when challenged suggests the slightly longer trip will be no problem, she could still be progressing, and is well drawn for a front runner.
Gussy Goose won on her handicap debut off a mark of 86 in July last season, and has been competing in listed and group races since then.
Last time she was sixth to Creggs Pipes at Killarney, but would surely have been at least third if she hadn’t got baulked twice when making her run.
She is six pound better off with the winner tomorrow, and a mark of 92 looks like one she can be very competitive off. A good draw is an added bonus.
