By Declan Meagher
Declan Meagher is the author of the website learnbetwin.com
Three.ie Handicap Chase, 4.15pm
This race was won last season by Jacksonslady, and she looks to have been laid out for a repeat bid. She is now 11 years old, but off a mark just five pound higher she must have a good chance.
Rock The World would take a bit of beating if repeating the form he showed when third in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham, but he has since run poorly at Aintree, and the one I like is the Henry De Bromhead-trained Sizing Codelco.
He was fifth in a big field handicap hurdle at last year's Punchestown Festival off a mark of 135, and gave Shaneshill a good race at Naas over fences in December.
Last time, he unseated at the first in the Grand Annual, something he had done earlier in the season at Sandown as well, but it does mean he comes here a fresh horse, and a mark of 140 looks very fair on what he’s done. He looks worth a win bet at the current 7/1.
La Touche Cup, 4.50pm
The La Touche Cup is a great spectacle, but not a race I’d tend to have any more than an interest bet in.
Josies Orders was badly hampered when unseating at the second last in last year’s race, before coming out to win the banks race on the Saturday of the Festival.
He has since won twice over the banks course in Cheltenham, before coming second there last time. He will take plenty of beating, but I’ve no interest in backing him at current quotes of just 8/11.
Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade One), 5.30pm
The Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle is the big race of the day, and while the winner of the World Hurdle, and this year’s top stayer, Thistlecrack, was ruled out of this due to lameness, we do have the horse who chased him home at Cheltenham - Alpha Des Obeaux -and the race has a good bit of depth to it.
Alpha Des Obeaux was beaten seven lengths at Cheltenham, and the winner was value for extra, although he did at least get him off the bridle, which was more than anything else has managed all season.
It was another 22 lengths back to third, and all told it was a career best for Alpha Des Obeaux, with the better ground a possible reason, as his best form the previous year was probably on decent ground at Punchestown.
He does act on heavy though and, whatever the ground on Thursday, if there are plenty of showers around, he is the horse to beat.
Shaneshill was second in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham festival, before going back over hurdles to take on Thistlecrack at Aintree, and while he was a respectable second there as well, the winner won hard held by seven lengths, and beat Shaneshill an awful lot easier than he had beaten Alpha Des Obeaux on his previous starts.
Diamond King (below) has improved quite a bit since moving from the Donald McCain yard to Gordon Elliot, last time winning the Coral Cup at Cheltenham off a mark of 149.
That two mile and five furlongs trip is the furthest he has tried in nine hurdle starts so far, and he enters unknown territory stamina wise here.
He is progressive, and wouldn’t need to improve much more to be competitive in this race, but after travelling extremely well he didn’t go away as much as he looked likely to on the run in at Cheltenham.
While he may have been idling, it could also be that it was as far as he wants to go.
One Track Mind was second in a Grade 2 at Haydock last time, but he was getting eight pounds from the winner Reve De Sivola and would need to better that form to win this.
He has had just seven hurdle starts, so improvement is possible. His best form is on very soft ground though, so rain would be welcome for him.
If In Doubt appreciated going back over hurdles, and won with more in hand than the bare margin at Wincanton off a mark of 140, making him look well-handicapped at Cheltenham in the Pertemps, off just six pound higher.
He was the unluckiest loser of the festival though as, after being wide the whole way, he still travelled best on the run to the last, before being repeatedly hampered and almost brought down. Yet he would still nearly have won if he hadn’t been carried left on the run in.
Last time, off four pound higher at Aintree, he got caught out when a slow early pace was picked up, before staying on very strongly from two out.
He needs to find a bit more to win this, but definitely shaped like he has a bigger effort in him the last twice.
Dedigout is also interesting. His best form would be on a par with Alpha Des Obeaux, and while he is now ten, with both his recent runs being below his best form, he needed his comeback run. Last time he shaped like the trip of two and a half miles is now too short for him, staying on strongly late having been outpaced when they quickened.
He seems best with a bit of cut, so will need a few showers to hit the track, but that’s pretty likely, and if he comes back to near his best from he’d have every chance.
Alpha Des Obeaux is without doubt the one to beat, but I don’t think he offers any value at 11/8.
I think Shaneshill is too short at 4/1, and might even place lay him on the exchanges.
If In Doubt needs to improve, and is coming here after running at both the big festivals, but he was better than the result in both races, and 16/1 looks too big on him.
Dedigout is 28/1 and that seems to assume he’s past his best, but he shaped last time that he just needed this extra distance, and that price looks much too big. I think it’s worth backing both If In Doubt and Dedigout each way.
Murray Spelman Handicap Hurdle, 6.05pm
The Murray Spelman Handicap Hurdle has a huge field of 28 runners, and there’s two I like at the prices, Jury Duty and Go Darsi Go.
Jury Duty beat Go Darsi Go into second when winning at Navan in February, and that form was franked when Go Darsi Go was beaten just a head in a 25-runner field on Wednesday, looking like the step up in trip to three miles might suit.
Jury Duty went on to come third to Coney Island at Fairyhouse when the hold-up tactics employed didn’t seem to suit as well as the more prominent ride he got when winning.
That form is very strong: the second is unexposed, while the winner ran very well in a Grade One on Wednesday.
Jury Girl is currently 10/1, while Go Darsi Go is 16/1, and both look very good each way bets at that. Try to back them with one of the bookmakers offering five places.
Ryanair Novice Chase (Grade One), 6.40pm
The Ryanair Novice Chase provides us with another opportunity to see the mighty Douvan and, bar a fall, he will surely add this to his wins at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals.
He really does look a superstar, and having already hammered all his main rivals in this, another easy victory looks in store.
His last-time-out win at Aintree, when he beat The Game Changer by 14 lengths, had to be seen to be believed, such was the ease of his victory, and while it takes a fair horse to win at all three festivals, he is that and more.
His price is prohibitive so this is more a race to just watch and enjoy.
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