By Declan Meagher
Declan Meagher is the author of the website learnbetwin. For more visit learnbetwin.com.
Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle, 4.20pm
This race is run over two miles and four furlongs, and it looks a good opportunity for Supasundae.
It was a credible seventh place finish in the Supreme at Cheltenham, despite not jumping great, including when a bad jump at the last cost him the place chance he had at the time.
This longer trip should be fine for him, he’s easily the most likely winner,and I wouldn’t put anyone off him at 2/1, but one I really like, at a much bigger price, is the Nicky Henderson-trained Baden.
He’s had just two hurdle starts so far, a good second to North Hill Harvey on his debut, before coming fifth to Yanworth at Cheltenham in January.
He ended up being well beaten but shaped much better than that, and looked set to place jumping two out, maybe finding it a bit much of a stamina test on heavy ground.
He has plenty of scope to improve, comes here a fresh horse, and the current 16/1 looks far too big. He's worth an each way bet at that.
Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle, 4.55pm
Bellshill is favourite for this Grade 1 race run over three miles after coming second in a similar grade at Aintree last time.
That was a big step up on his form over shorter runs, and it would have been even better again if he hadn’t made a bad mistake at the second last when still travelling strongly.
He did well to get to the front jumping the last, but he drifted to his right on the run in allowing Ballyoptic to battle back and beat him by a neck.
That’s still the best form on offer here, and with a cleaner round of jumping he can do better.
Acapella Bourgeois battled well to win a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse last time.
That was over two and a half miles, and while he was quite headstrong earlier in the season, he is settling better now, which gives him every chance of staying this extra distance.
I do think he will need to improve for it if he’s to win though.
Emerging Force is progressing fast, and after staying on well to win a handicap at Doncaster off a mark of 128, he was set to improve a good bit on that last time, when he was three lengths clear at the last, but he stepped at the flight and unseated his jockey.
He would have won well that day, despite the fact he was off the bridle before plenty of others.
The extra furlong here is a plus as he’s a really strong stayer.
He could do with a good gallop, but that’s entirely possible, and the level he looked set to run to last time wouldn’t give him much to find here.
Of the others Coney Island would have the most chance, indeed I’d probably give him more chance than the shorter priced Acapella Bourgeois.
He improved for the step up to this trip with an easy win off a mark of 130 at Fairyhouse at last time, and while he needs to come on again, that’s entirely possible.
Bellshill is the one to beat, but at the prices I like Emerging Market. He is lightly raced and improving fast, and his handicap form doesn’t give him that much to find to go close in this.
He looks a good win bet at the current 13/2.
Punchestown Gold Cup, 5.30pm
The Punchestown Gold Cup is one of the big races of the week, and while Don Cossack’s injury robs us of another fascinating clash between him and Cue Card, we still have the Cheltenham Gold Cup second and third, as well as the aforementioned Cue Card, who fell when in contention at Cheltenham.
Cue Card, in the form of his life this season, made up for that fall with a very easy success over Don Poli and a below par Djakadam at Aintree, and this trip of three miles and a furlong, on likely decent ground, is perfect for him.
Cue Card had in the past looked a dubious stayer at three miles, but he settles much better these days, and it allows him to finish off his races. If he is in the same form as he was at Aintree then he will be very hard to beat.
Djakadam stays the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip strongly, and while I think on the balance of probabilities he’d have beaten Cue Card that day, the slightly shorter trip and flatter track at Aintree suited Cue Card much better.
While Cue Card was able to run right up to his best, Djakadam, who had a hard race at Cheltenham, ran very flat.
It’s a big ask to get him back in top form for this, but Ruby Walsh was very easy on Djakadam once beaten at Aintree so he was spared a hard race, and the fact he runs in this suggests his trainer has been happy with him since.
Don Poli caused huge debate all winter, with one camp claiming he was slow, while others claimed he was just lazy, and only did enough.
I think after his runs at Cheltenham and Aintree even his most ardent supporters would have to agree that he’s a bit slow, and his only real chance of beating the top horses at this trip would be a really good gallop on soft ground, to bring his stamina into play.
There’s some showers about, but it’s unlikely to be enough to make it soft here, and if Cue Card runs to his best, he’ll be playing for place money again.
Road to Riches and Carlingford Lough are similar to Don Poli, in that if the favourite or even Djakadam run to their best, then the best they can hope for is some place money.
Carlingford Lough won the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown, but only because Valseur Lido unseated at the last, and the others, including Road to Riches, went too fast.
Road to Riches progressed throughout last season, but he’s regressed a bit this season, and even his best is nowhere near Cue Cards level.
Cue Card is going to take plenty of beating. While Don Poli ran him much closer at Aintree than Djakadam did, that’s as good as Don Poli is on decent ground, while Djakadam has already run to a much higher level.
The question is can his top trainer get him back to his best for this.
Djakadam was a 5/2 shot against Cue Card and Don Poli last time, and the 8/1 he is for this looks an overreaction to that poor run, and he is worth a win bet at that.
Champion Bumper, 6.05pm
The Champion Bumper looks a very good renewal, with the second, third and fourth from this year’s Cheltenham equivalent being joined by the 2015 Cheltenham Bumper winner Moon Racer, who hasn’t raced since.
He is unbeaten in three starts and his trainer just ran out of time to get him back to Cheltenham this season over hurdles, hence him running in this.
I think he has the best from, but it is a big ask to reproduce it after a year’s lay-off.
Battleford was second at Cheltenham before filling the same spot in the big Aintree bumper, beaten by his stable companion Bacardys who had finished one place behind him at Cheltenham.
Both clearly have a chance, as does Aspen Colorado who didn’t go to Cheltenham having won both his starts so far at Leopardstown, the latest a comfortable enough win over Brelade, who went on to run well in the Goffs Land Rover Bumper on Tuesday.
The one I like at the prices though is Castello Sforza, who, after winning on his debut at Fairyhouse, was a close fourth in the bumper at Cheltenham.
He was three lengths behind Battleford that day, but he ran around a bit off the bridle and left the impression he would come on a good bit for the experience. He also comes here a fresher horse than him, having given Aintree a skip, and looks worth a bet at the current 9/1.
Guinness Handicap Chase, 6.40pm
The Guinness Handicap Chase has plenty of improving types, with Colms Dream, Pairofbrowneyes and Rouge Trader all looking capable of progressing past their current marks.
Rouge Trader looks leniently treated on a mark just six pound higher than his win at Naas last time when he didn’t seem to be doing much in front, but I would worry about his jumping in this bigger field.
Pairofbrowneyes comes here a fresh horse having been kept for Cheltenham after beating Killer Crow at Limerick over Christmas.
It turned out he missed the cut for that race, but although he’s nine pound higher today, that Limerick form is very strong.
Killer Crow franked it by coming second to a subsequent Cheltenham winner next time, while the fourth Leap Dearg ran Rouge Trader close at Naas.
I think it’s worth backing both Pairofbrowneyes at 7/1 and also Killer Crow at 14/1, as he has since run well when failing to stay in the Irish National, before having his chance ended when badly hampered by a faller last time.
Back both each way.
