By Declan Meagher
There is an excellent card awaiting us at Leopardstown this Saturday, with four Grade One races - the highlight being the Irish Gold Cup.
Read previews on some of the televised races below with some value selections included.
15:40 Irish Gold Cup
With Irish-trained horses currently occupying the first four positions at the head of the Cheltenham Gold Cup market, it’s slightly disappointing that none of that quartet turn up here, but it still looks a decent race.
Market leader Road to Riches progressed hugely over fences in the past year and a half, winning the Galway Plate off a mark of 149 back in July 2014, before winning two grade ones last winter.
He proved he stayed three miles well when battling back to win the Lexus in December 2014 and in a stamina sapping Gold Cup at Cheltenham, run at a really strong pace, he kept going well enough for a three-and-a-half-length third place finish to Coneygree.
While last season’s Gold Cup was a tremendous race to watch, with Coneygree putting them to the sword a long way out, I don’t think it was that high on quality.
In a well-run race, Holywell was only six lengths back in fourth and he’s definitely no star.
Smad Place finished eighth and has done very well since then, but it’s almost certain he was nowhere near that form back in March.
Road to Riches was then beaten by 13 lengths at Punchestown before making a winning reappearance at Clonmel this season.
While he sets the standard in this race, his progression seems to have stalled and while he’s still the most likely winner on Saturday, I would be surprised if he was good enough to win at Cheltenham in March.
His trainer reports him in good form for this, but it should be noted he hasn’t run since that Clonmel win back in the middle of November.
Foxrock was second in this race last year and you could excuse him his next three starts as one was over hurdles and the other two were over an unsuitably short trip. He bounced back to form when a close third in the Lexus last time.
While a leading Gold Cup contender in Don Poli won the race, First Lieutenant and On His Own were second and fourth respectively and it would take a very positive interpretation to rate that form highly. He’s likely to run his race, but if Road to Riches is at his best he’d be fighting for the places.
First Lieutenant was top class back in 2012/13 when he was second in the Lexus at Leopardstown, the Ryanair at Cheltenham and won a grade one at Aintree.
He always used to struggle in the closing stages over three miles on soft ground, but appears to have more stamina these days and has bounced back to form recently with a third in the Hennessy at Newbury before that close second at Leopardstown.
That appeared a big step up on anything he’s shown in the past 18 months and with On His Own also apparently improving on his recent form, I’d be far more inclined to believe it’s quite weak form for the grade.
Gilgamboa is interesting, he won a Grade One at Fairyhouse over two and a half miles as a novice last season and made a promising return when third to Djakadam at Punchestown in December, again over two and a half miles.
The winner got away with setting a slow pace that day and while he quickly put the race to bed when he quickened up before the turn in, Gilgamboa was initially outpaced.
But having dropped about eight lengths behind Valseur Lido by the second last, he was closing that one down rapidly at the line, leaving the impression the slow pace was totally against him and that a step up in trip would suit.
He got that last time in the Paddy Power over Christmas, but after travelling through the race extremely well and hitting the front on the last bend, looking sure to win, he faded after jumping the last upsides to eventually finish fourth.
Given he took it up hard on the bridle after jumping the second last, based solely on this run, it’s hard to draw any other conclusion other than he didn’t stay.
In his previous two starts he shaped like he definitely needed further than two and a half miles and maybe he was just in front too soon at Leopardstown.
With a slightly more patient ride, I’d be willing to give him another chance at the trip. He has a bit to find with Road to Riches but, unlike most of the others in this, he still has the potential to find it.
Valseur Lido won two Grade Ones as a novice last season and after coming second to Djakadam at Punchestown in December leaving the impression the run might have been needed, he then fell at the last in the King George at Kempton.
He was around 15-20 lengths behind at the time, but it was a strongly run race and it was a very good King George too.
Valseur Lido was also given minimal assistance from the saddle last time. The horse was allowed to drop off the back of the main pack without being pushed along, but he was only about three lengths behind Smad Place when he fell and that one has franked the form since.
Carlingford Lough won this race last season, but that was a weak renewal and he hasn’t been in much form since.
Sir Des Champs would take all the beating at his best.
He won it back in 2012, but he was off for nearly two years with injuries and while he won on his comeback at Thurles, that was a weak race. He was well beaten last time in the Lexus.
Wounded Warrior is exposed as below the best but he has some form that would give him a decent place chance, while On His Own also has some decent runs to his name, but as mentioned already, I really don’t think his last time out third signalled a return to his very best.
Road to Riches is the most likely winner, but he doesn’t have that much in hand of Valseur Lido and Gilgamboa.
Both of those still have scope to improve and I’m surprised the bookies have put the likes of Foxrock and First Lieutenant in at similar prices to that pair.
Gilgamboa and Valseur Lido are currently 10/1, and while I don’t think either are huge value, I do think both are worth a small bet.
13:55 Deloitte Novice Hurdle
This looks a cracking race. Bellshill won the champion bumper at Punchestown last season and is three from three over hurdles this year, winning a Grade Two at Navan and a Grade One at Naas on his last two starts.
He was value for plenty more than the 12-length winning margin at Navan, but wasn’t as impressive last time when mistakes at the last two flights saw him chased home by a 66/1 shot.
This drop in trip is unlikely to suit and he won’t get away with errors in this much better company.
Tombstone won his maiden hurdle impressively at Fairyhouse before coming second in the two-mile grade one at Leopardstown over Christmas. It looked a decent race beforehand, but they finished in a heap and the proximity of the sixth and seventh horses home limit the form.
Normally a slow pace is to blame for bunched finishes like that, and such horses are flattered, but sectionals show the pace was fair and it was a true test at the trip.
The bare form would leave Tombstone with a bit to find to match Bellshill. He did pull quite hard though so can improve, although that would make you wonder if he wants the extra two furlongs of this race.
Petit Mouchoir was only three quarters of a length behind Tombstone in that Grade One and he got very little help from the saddle. His jockey is weak in a finish and also sat up on him on the run to the last. I think he would have nearly won with a stronger ride and on that basis the fact Paul Townend is booked to ride is a real plus.
Coney Island has improved with each start over hurdles so far, easily winning his maiden last time. That form would still leave him with plenty to find to win this however, as it wasn’t the strongest maiden hurdle run at Leopardstown over the Christmas period.
Willie Mullins' third contender for this is Bleu Et Rouge and he came fourth in the aforementioned Grade One in December, finishing three-and-a-half lengths behind Petit Mouchoir. He made good ground from the back on the home bend, but after a slight mistake at the last his run flattened out. He’s still unexposed though so can improve more and isn’t out of this.
Of the two at the head of the market I’d much prefer Bellshill and he’s the likely winner, but I do have doubts about the shorter trip for him. The form of the Grade One that Tombstone, Petit Mouchoir and Bleu Et Rouge contested last time may not be strong for the level, but it’s still decent form.
The prices they are for Saturday don’t tally with my reading of that race though, with Tombstone just 2/1, while Petit Mouchoir is currently 8/1, and Bleu Et Rouge is 16/1. Both of them look worth backing at the prices.
14:30 Flogas Novice Chase
Outlander heads the market in this novice chase. He was a decent novice hurdler last season, and has won both his chase starts so far this season, last time winning a grade two at Limerick with a little more in hand than the length-and-three-quarters margin would indicate. That form puts him right in the mix and he has the potential to do better.
Zabana was progressive over hurdles last year, ending the season with a third to Jezki in the stayer’s hurdle at Punchestown. He jumped very well on his chasing debut last time, before going clear on the run in for an impressive victory. The bare form wouldn’t be as good as what Outlander has achieved over fences, but he could do no more than win as he liked.
Pont Alexandre looked a potential star three seasons back, but he was off injured for a long time, before winning impressively on his comeback at Punchestown in early December. He was only second of three runners in a grade two last time however, which, while still very decent form, puts a bit of a cap on his potential.
The market doesn’t have much between the front three in this, but I’d have a strong preference for Zabana. He improved throughout last season over hurdles when his form wasn’t far off top class and based on the way he attacked his fences at Leopardstown, he already looks likely to be a better chaser. I think he’s a cracking bet at the current 7/2.
12:55 Spring Juvenile Hurdle
The other grade one on the card is at 12:55, and while it’s not live on RTE it’s well worth watching the replay, as it features the current Triumph Hurdle favourite Ivanovich Gorbatov.
He is a progressive horse on the flat and won a decent maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas.
This is a big step up in grade though, and his current price of 8/13 is based very much on potential, where as Jer’s Girl has already run very well at this level, when second over the course and distance over Christmas and looks a good each way bet at 11/1.
Selections:
12:55 - Jer’s Girl 11/1
13:55 - Petit Mouchoir 8/1, Bleu Et Rouge 16/1
14:30 - Zabana 7/2
15:40 - Gilgamboa 10/1, Valseur Lido 10/1
Declan Meagher is the author of the website Learn Bet Win. For more, follow Declan on Twitter here.
