Both before and after Ireland's Round 3 visit to France last month, Ireland head coach Scott Bemand stressed that the result in Clermont-Ferrand wouldn't "make or break" their Guinness Women’s Six Nations campaign.
With two home wins and two away defeats, today’s visit of Scotland to Aviva Stadium will be the real game on which the Ireland’s championship is decided.
The Ireland coach declined to give his team’s form so far a score out of 10 when asked on Friday, but he did say his side were "sitting in as expected" through their opening four games.
If that is the case, then this afternoon will tip the scales one way or the other.
It was the same when these sides met in the final round last year, as Ireland brought their 50% record to the Hive in Edinburgh looking to finish the championship with some profit, only to suffer a 26-19 defeat. A third-place finish, even if it didn’t feel like it.
"The last couple of years, I think we've only won two games in the Six Nations and it didn't feel right even speaking about that [finishing third]," scrum coach Denis Fogarty said before this championship started, as the Irish players and coaches made it clear that three home wins would be the minimum expected this year.
Breaking up the Anglo-French dominance will have to wait for another year, but a win against Scotland this afternoon would at least cement their position as best of the rest.
Given the publicity drive that has gone into the first ever standalone Ireland women’s game at the Aviva, it’s appropriate that Bemand’s side come into this weekend looking to finish on a real high, rather than trying to patch up a stuttering campaign.
At the time of writing, ticket sales have cleared 30,000 for Lansdowne Road this afternoon, more than three times the current record attendance for a home Ireland game, set at Dexcom Stadium earlier in this championship.
It’s expected they will return to the Aviva again next year, with England an obvious candidate to bring to Dublin 4. Given the size of the Red Roses fanbase, and the trajectory Ireland will hope to continue on, this afternoon’s record attendance may only last a year.
As part of this occasion, the history of Irish women’s rugby will also be marked. Ireland’s first ever women’s side, who played Scotland in 1993, presented the current team with their match jerseys last night, while an event after this today’s game will see every Irish international from both the XVs and Sevens game presented with their 'Legacy Caps'.
There will even be silverware up for grabs between the sides for the first time, with the Siobhan Cattigan Trophy to become the annual prize when these two teams meet, in memory of the late Scotland international, who died in 2021 at the age of just 26.
As big as the occasion is, it would feel like a major anticlimax without a win at the end, and this fixture has a habit of throwing up drama.
Of their last 10 meetings, Ireland have won six and Scotland four, while nine of those games have been decided by a try or less. Only Scotland’s 36-10 win in 2023, which consigned Ireland to the wooden spoon, has had more than a score in it.
Five years go, Chloe Rollie’s late try saw the Scots break Irish hearts in their World Cup qualifier in Parma, before Enya Breen’s final-minute try in Belfast a few months later saw Ireland gain a bit of revenge.
There was the tense and nervy final round in 2024, which Ireland narrowly won to secure their 2025 World Cup spot, and their place in WXV1 later in the year, where they would go on to beat the Black Ferns.
Last year in Edinburgh, Francesca McGhie’s try – again with the last play of the game – gave Scotland a 26-19 victory, on a day when Ireland struggled to deal with Dorothy Wall’s first half Achilles injury.
At the time, it looked like the Scottish women’s team were on the up, and their World Cup showing seemed to confirm that, but the side have struggled so far in 2026 under their new head coach Sione Fukofuka.
The former USA boss can point to a heaving injury list as an excuse for how this campaign has gone, with Rachel McLachlan, Rachel Malcolm, Emma Orr, Francesca McGhie, Lana Skeldon, Evie Wills and Hannah Walker all ruled out, while the game has come just too soon for veteran centre Lisa Thomson, after a long-term achilles injury.
"It's kind of like a full circle moment"
— RTÉ Sport (@RTEsport) May 14, 2026
Ireland's Aoife Wafer is relishing the opportunity to line out at Aviva Stadium on Sunday in their final fixture of the Women's Six Nations campaign pic.twitter.com/0v5RgaZa6H
Since clinging on for a win away to Wales in the opening round, Scotland have shipped three heavy defeats, and with one game still to play they have conceded a whopping 214 points, their highest since 2015.
By contrast, Bemand has had no such injury worries to contend with, which has seen him tinker less with his squad than in previous campaigns.
Twelve of this week’s starting XV have started every game in this championship, with the same front row, back row and half-back partnerships across the campaign.
One area Bemand has continued to tweak is the second row, with Fiona Tuite the only lock who has had permanent residency in the team. Dorothy Wall and Ruth Campbell have come in and out of the starting side, while Sam Monaghan gets the opportunity from the first whistle this week, in the only change from last week against Wales.
The back row is the unit that sets this team apart though, with the dominant carrying of Aoife Wafer and Brittany Hogan, the breakdown threat of Erin King and Wafer, and the defensive energy of all three.
If that back row takes control of the contest, particularly with Scotland missing McLachlan and Malcolm in their own back row, it should put Bemand’s side on track to cap off their day of history in style.
Given where Irish women’s rugby was this time three years ago, this afternoon’s fixture feels like the end of one long journey.
Another journey starts tomorrow.
Verdict: Ireland bonus-point win
Ireland: Stacey Flood; Béibhinn Parsons, Aoife Dalton, Eve Higgins, Robyn O'Connor; Dannah O'Brien, Emily Lane; Ellena Perry, Clíodhna Moloney-MacDonald, Linda Djougang; Sam Monaghan, Fiona Tuite; Brittany Hogan, Erin King (capt), Aoife Wafer.
Replacements: Neve Jones, Sadhbh McGrath, Eilís Cahill, Dorothy Wall, Ruth Campbell, Katie Whelan, Vicky Elmes Kinlan, Niamh Gallagher.
Scotland: Chloe Rollie; Rhona Lloyd, Rachel Philipps, Meryl Smith, Shona Campbell; Helen Nelson (capt), Leia Brebner-Holden; Leah Bartlett, Elis Martin, Elliann Clarke; Emma Wassell, Louise McMillan; Becky Boyd, Eva Donaldson, Emily Coubrough.
Replacements: Aicha Sutcliffe, Demi Swann, Molly Poolman, Hollie Cunningham, Holland Bogan, Rhea Clarke, Lucia Scott, Coreen Grant.
Referee: Aurélie Groizeleau (FFR)
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Follow our live blog on Ireland v Scotland in the Guinness Women's Six Nations on Sunday from 2.30pm and listen to Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1. Watch Wales v Italy (12.15pm) and France v England (4.45pm) on RTÉ Player
