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Scots confidence well placed for once in heated rivalry

EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - MARCH 07: Sione Tuipulotu of Scotland celebrates as he is awarded the The Auld Alliance Trophy following his teams victory over France following the Guinness Six Nations 2026 match between Scotland and France at Scottish Gas Murrayfi
Scotland arrive off the back of a famous victory over France

Scotland's ability to talk themselves up ahead of recent meetings with Ireland has only been matched by their incredible propensity to blow it when it really matters, so the story goes.

In that respect, Stuart Hogg's bravado in 2023 when predicting Scotland could do a job on Ireland, and Blair Kinghorn's positive reply to a question about the Scots ending their dire run prior to that year's World Cup tie do a lot of heavy lifting.

Needless to say, in the midst of an 11-game losing streak to Ireland, and to reach back for a late 80s' cliché (when Scotland hand the upper hand ), their egos couldn't quite cash the cheques their mouths were writing.

This week's verbal swing comes from winger Darcy Graham, who claimed Andy Farrell's men are "there for the taking".

On the one hand you might think they would have learned some lessons about keeping shtum. There's little to be gained by talking down the opposition.

In reality the above examples are spiced-up versions of "we're playing well, we're confident and we believe we can win", trotted out by every single player who gets a microphone shoved in front of him.

Graham's reasoning is sound.

If the Ireland team that played against France, Italy and Wales, for large spells, turns up, then they are quite obviously there for the taking.

But so used are we to hearing the most bland of cheat sheet cliches that an honest appraisal of where Farrell's side are at by an opposition player becomes a dig.

They stand out because you'd never hear an Irish player commenting out loud on opposition weaknesses; like an offload in the Joe Schmidt era, it's likely a droppable offence.

The Irish approach, even if less headline-worthy, of compliments and dead-batting, is a safer way of preparing for what looks like the tightest of Test matches.

There are three recent examples when a decent Scottish outfit looked to have Ireland's number only for erstwhile in-form players, such as Hogg and Kinghorn, to fail to deliver.

1 February 2020; Stuart Hogg of Scotland knocks-on as he touches down for a try, which was subsequently disallowed, during the Guinness Six Nations Rugby Championship match between Ireland and Scotland at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Photo by Brendan Moran/Sportsfile

Hogg dropping the ball over the tryline in 2020 (above), blowing an overlap in 2022, and the following year the team failing to capitalise when a visiting Ireland side ended up with a prop hooking and a flanker flinging the ball into the lineout, stand out as moments that could have brought their miserable run to an end.

Scotland appear to be unable to resist the urge to say out loud what they should probably keep to themselves.

Ever since the first Six Nations, there's been a spiky relationship between the teams as the tables turned in Ireland's favour.

Slowly, across the course of 33 Six Nations, Autumn Nations Cup, World Cup and World Cup warm-up games since 2000, the Celtic cousins have grown to dislike each other to a notable degree.

Ireland's usurpation - winning 10 of the first 12 games after 2000 - can't have been easy on Scotland.

That the Irish were able to, after a very slow start, adapt better to professionalism may also have given the Scots, who had long lorded it over Ireland, a sense of 'that should be us'.

In the midst of that international run of defeats, there was little or no joy on the club front either with Ulster, Munster and Leinster all conquering the European summit, while none of the Scottish regions could establish a base camp.

Sporadic URC wins by the Warriors over Munster - such as the 2015 final and the 2024 semi-final - kept belief alive that an international win was around the corner. Every time they turned down that road it was a cul-de-sac.

Their almost perennial run-of-the-mill wins over England and France clearly demonstrate a team capable of producing the goods but this crop has always fallen short in the battle for the Centenary Quaich.

during the RBS Six Nations Championship match between Scotland and Ireland at Murrayfield on March 10, 2007 in Edinburgh, Scotland.

A brief timeline of unsavoury incidents goes back to the 2007 meeting when allegations were made that Ronan O'Gara (above), who lost consciousness at the bottom of a ruck, had been deliberately choked.

In 2017, former head coach Joe Schmidt was less than pleased when the team bus was escorted the long away around to Murrayfield, disrupting the notoriously meticulous coach's preparation before a 22-17 defeat.

Around the same time, Ireland and Munster scrum-half Conor Murray accused Glasgow players of deliberately targeting his standing leg as he box-kicked to great effect. Scotland and Warriors forward Ryan Wilson in particular seemed to rile the Munster players more than most.

Peter O'Mahony, the former Munster skipper, was the vanguard of the anti-Scottish sentiment and Farrell was asked earlier this week if he had considered bringing in the 36-year-old to provide some words of 'wisdom'.

7 October 2023; Peter O'Mahony of Ireland and Duhan van der Merwe of Scotland during the 2023 Rugby World Cup Pool B match between Ireland and Scotland at the Stade de France in Paris, France. Photo by Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile
Peter O'Mahony of Ireland and Duhan van der Merwe square off at the 2023 World Cup

"Haha, he's been mentioned once or twice, Pete, he’s been around in the background during the games and probably loving life but he’ll certainly be up for this game but from afar I would have thought," he said of the back row who retired in 2024.

The absence of one of Scotland's chief tormentors might give them that bit more belief, however, it had little effect on their performance 12 months ago as their shortcomings were once again exposed in a 32-18 loss.

However, this meeting comes with a decent body of evidence to suggest that this is their time.

In a championship of 'bloody hell' moments - the Scots win over France last weekend the 'bloodiest hell' of the lot of them - this is set up for them to succeed at last.

Ireland's initial salvo in Paris - coming off the back of meek losses to South Africa and New Zealand - set the scene for a Six Nations of transition.

Injuries, suspensions, England away, all seemed to add up to a period of taking medicine and learning lessons.

As long as they kept it respectable, handed out a few debuts, reinvigorated a couple of players, perhaps settled on an out-half and finished in a respectable position then this was going to be an acceptable return 19 months out from a World Cup.

2026 Six Nations table after round 4

But Ireland - thanks largely to a stunning performance in Twickenham - have exceeded expectations and a fourth Triple Crown in five years and an outside shot at the title is their lot going into the final round.

Scotland find themselves in bonus territory as well, perhaps even more so after opening with a defeat to Italy that again led to calls for Gregor Townsend to go.

Yes, it's been a crazy championship so far, but the idea that France will slip up against England in the late kick-off seems a stretch. Fitting perhaps but still an almighty long shot.

Barring a dreaded draw, one team will be celebrating a Triple Crown - Scotland's first since 1990 or Ireland's ninth in the Six Nations era, before the waiting game begins.

It's a case of 'if not now then when?' for the Scots. They are brimful of confidence and Ireland are building towards the World Cup.

If they lose again, it's going to be a bitter pill to swallow but it might just force them to turn the volume down slightly for the next clash.

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