The 'Race to the Eight' in the BKT United Rugby Championship goes down to the final round of the regular season, with five teams battling for the remaining four play-off spots.
Leinster and Bulls secured their places with home bonus-point victories last weekend but Lions, Munster, Cardiff, Ulster and Connacht are fighting it out for the final positions, with just four points separating the five teams.
Here's are all the permutations.
UPDATE: After Friday night's games, things have changed.
Connacht's win over Edinburgh means they cannot finish lower than eighth and make the play-offs.
Ulster's defeat at home to Glasgow leaves them in eighth place before Saturday's games. Their only hope of staying there is if Munster, currently in ninth, fail to take any match points away from their home game against Lions, the last match of the round, kicking off at 7.45pm.
Leinster just need to win against Ospreys to take second place but cannot reach Warriors, who finish in top spot.
ONLINE
We'll have live blogs, reports and reaction on RTÉ.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app
TV
Edinburgh v Connacht (Friday 7.45pm) and Leinster v Ospreys (Saturday 5.15pm) are live on TG4 and Premier Sports.
Ulster v Glasgow (Friday 7.45pm) and Munster v Lions (Saturday 7.45pm) are live on Premier Sports.
All games are available on URC.tv
WEATHER
Belfast is set for perfect conditions for Friday night's game. Clear skies in about 11C. It will be a bit chillier in Edinburgh (6C), while light clouds may clear somewhat during the game.
Dublin will see light rain showers on Saturday afternoon in about 12C for Leinster, while it will be partly cloudy in Limerick and 11C for Munster's game.
If Ulster win tonight with a bonus-point, then their play-off spot and Champions Cup qualification will be guaranteed, although their highest possible finish in the table is fifth.
Richie Murphy's men could also secure Champions Cup rugby if they finish outside the top eight by winning next weekend's Challenge Cup final against Montpellier.
They are without a win in their last three URC games, their longest winless run in the Championship this season.
Murphy has made 10 changes for this game from the side that drew with Stormers last weekend.
Stuart McCloskey, Jacob Stockdale and David McCann are ruled out through injury, while captain Iain Henderson is suspended.
The visitors' only win in their last seven trips to Ireland was 17-10 over Munster in the 2024 semi-final at Thomond Park.
Glasgow's only victory on Ulster soil since December 2009 was by a single point, 13-12, in September 2013.
Ulster: Mike Lowry; Werner Kok, James Hume, Wilhelm de Klerk, Zac Ward; Jake Flannery, Conor McKee; Sam Crean, Rob Herring, Tom O'Toole; Harry Sheridan, Charlie Irvine; Joe Hopes, Nick Timoney (capt), Bryn Ward.
Replacements: Tom Stewart, Angus Bell, Scott Wilson, Cormac Izuchukwu, Lorcan McLoughlin, Nathan Doak, Jack Murphy, Ethan McIlroy.
Glasgow: Josh McKay; Kyle Steyn (capt), Stafford McDowall, Sione Tuipulotu, Kyle Rowe; Dan Lancaster, George Horne; Nathan McBeth, Johnny Matthews, Zander Fagerson; Gregor Brown, Alex Samuel; Ally Miller, Matt Fagerson, Macenzzie Duncan.
Replacements: Gregor Hiddleston, Rory Sutherland, Sam Talakai, Jare Oguntibeju, Euan Ferrie, Sione Vailanu, Ben Afshar, Ollie Smith.
Referee: Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR).
If Connacht lose to Edinburgh without a bonus-point, their season is over and they will be playing Challenge Cup rugby next season.
After that, there's a series of possibilities depending on how many match points are gained in victory, defeat or a draw. Neil Treacy has gone through all the permutations here.
Stuart Lancaster has been forced into a couple of changes from last week's 26-7 win against Munster, with hooker Dylan Tierney-Martin and second row Darragh Murray ruled out due to injury.
Ireland international prop Finlay Bealham is back in the team.
Connacht's only loss in their last eight URC matches was 33-21 at the Lions in Round 16 but they have won just one of their last nine trips to Scotland: 37-26 against Friday’s opponents in October 2020.
Edinburgh, out of play-off contention, have won their last three URC matches and have not won four in a row in the competition since January 2022.
They have lost just twice at Hive Stadium this season, both in the URC, to the Bulls in January and to Ulster in March.
Edinburgh: Harry Paterson; Darcy Graham, Piers O'Conor, Findlay Thomson, Duhan van der Merwe; Ross Thompson, Hector Patterson; Pierre Schoeman, Ewan Ashman, Ollie Blyth-Lafferty; Marshall Sykes, Glen Young; Tom Dodd, Freddy Douglas, Magnus Bradbury (capt).
Replacements: Jerry Blyth-Lafferty, Boan Venter, Paul Hill, Callum Hunter-Hill, Euan McVie, Tom Currie, Charlie Shiel, Piers O’Conor.
Connacht: Sam Gilbert; Shane Jennings, Harry West, Bundee Aki, Shayne Bolton; Josh Ioane, Ben Murphy; Billy Bohan, Eoin de Buitléar, Finlay Bealham; Joe Joyce, Josh Murphy; Cian Prendergast (capt), Shamus Hurley-Langton, Sean Jansen.
Replacements: Mikey Yarr, Peter Dooley, Sam Illo, David O'Connor, Paul Boyle, Matthew Devine, Jack Carty, Seán Naughton.
Referee: Aimee Barrett-Theron (SARU)
Despite six losses in the URC season already, Leinster have basically secured a home quarter-final for the play-offs, while finishing top of the pile is still a possibility.
They sit in third but are just one behind Stormers and two behind Glasgow with both of those in action on Friday night, so Leo Cullen's side will know the lay of the land before kick-off.
However, should they lose without a bonus point, the Lions, who are at Munster on Saturday evening, could overtake them but would need to make up a 25-point differential.
Leinster have not been defeated at Aviva Stadium in the championship since Munster were the visitors in May 2023, while the Welshmen's only away victory in the URC since March 2025 was 26-19 at Scarlets in Round 8.
The hosts welcome back James Lowe, Jack Conan, Tadhg Furlong, Robbie Henshaw and Jordan Larmour to their squad.
Ospreys, with nothing to play for, have visited Aviva Stadium just once before in April 2006, losing 38-21 to Leinster.
Leinster: Jimmy O'Brien; Tommy O'Brien, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Jordan Larmour; Harry Byrne, Jamison Gibson-Park; Jerry Cahir, Gus McCarthy, Rabah Slimani; Joe McCarthy, Diarmuid Mangan; Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, James Culhane.
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Alex Usanov, Tadhg Furlong, Max Deegan, Caelan Doris, Fintan Gunne, Ciarán Frawley, James Lowe.
Ospreys: Jack Walsh; Keelan Giles, Evardi Boshoff, Owen Watkin, Iestyn Hopkins; Dan Edwards, Reuben Morgan-Williams; Garyn Phillips, Efan Daniel, Ben Warren; Rhys Davies, Huw Sutton; James Ratti, Jac Morgan (capt), Ross Moriarty.
Replacements: Lewis Lloyd, Cam Jones, Kian Hire, Ben Roberts, Harri Deaves, Kieran Hardy, Phil Cokanasiga, Luke Morgan.
Referee: Ru Campbell (SRU)
With Munster playing last, their qualification could actually be sorted before kick-off but equally, they could be going into Saturday night needing to win.
They could technically finish fourth but a win of any kind will ensure they finish no lower than fifth.
Clayton McMillan's side, well beaten by Connacht last weekend, welcome back Jack Crowley among five changes.
The hosts have lost just twice at Thomond Park in the URC this season, to Stormers in November and to Leinster in December and are without a win in their last five Championship clashes with South African sides.
The Lions are one of the teams that could fall out of contention and their six-game winning run in the URC ended with their 31-7 reversal at the hand of Leinster last weekend.
Their only victory in nine visits to Ireland was 38-14 over Connacht in March 2024.
The two sides have met on four previous occasions with the Lions only victory coming in the inaugural clash, 23-21, at Ellis Park in March 2022.
Munster: Mike Haley; Andrew Smith, Alex Nankivell, Dan Kelly, Seán O'Brien; Jack Crowley, Craig Casey (capt); Jeremy Loughman, Niall Scannell, Michael Ala’alatoa; Tom Ahern, Fineen Wycherley; Jack O’Donoghue, John Hodnett, Brian Gleeson.
Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Josh Wycherley, John Ryan, Evan O’Connell, Gavin Coombes, Ben O’Donovan, JJ Hanrahan, Alex Kendellen.
Lions: Quan Horn; Kelly Mpeku, Henco van Wyk, Richard Kriel, Angelo Davids; Chris Smith, Morne van den Berg; SJ Kotze, PJ Botha, Sebastian Lombard; Reinhard Nothnagel, Darrien Landsberg; Siba Mahashe, Batho Hlekani, Francke Horn (capt).
Replacements: Morne Brandon, Eddie Davids, RF Schoeman, Ruan Delport, Siba Qoma, JC Pretorius, Haashim Pead, Rhynhardt Jonker.
Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR)
