Four play-off spots remain, and five teams fighting for them. The final round of the BKT United Rugby Championship regular season could hardly be teed up any better.
With Glasgow Warriors, the Stormers and Leinster having home quarter-finals secured, and the Bulls' play-off spot (either home or away) locked in, it leaves the Lions, Munster, Cardiff, Ulster and Connacht battling it out for the four remaining places.
Next week's Challenge Cup final between Ulster and Montpellier adds another layer of intrigue to the weekend; with Champions Cup qualification the prize for the Challenge Cup winners, Richie Murphy’s side could miss out on the play-offs and still have a second go at securing their place in the top-tier competition.
For this weekend, that means teams will want to break into the top eight, and ideally have Ulster in there with them, in order to avoid an agonising wait for next week’s final in Bilbao.
Connacht, Ulster and Cardiff are all in action on Friday. Ninth-place Connacht travel to already-eliminated Edinburgh, while Ulster and Cardiff host the top two, Glasgow and Stormers, respectively.
On Saturday, Munster welcome the Lions to Thomond Park.
Before we get into the permutations, it’s worth noting the various sets of tiebreakers for teams who have the same number of points. Crucially, the first tiebreaker is the number of games won, before we go down to points difference, tries scored and then points scored.
As an example, that explains why Ulster are currently behind Cardiff, despite having a better points difference.
URC TABLE, FIXTURES AND RESULTS IN FULL
Connacht
Currently: Ninth (49 points)
Opposition: Away to Edinburgh (Friday, 7.45pm)
Let’s start with the most straightforward permutation: If Connacht lose to Edinburgh without a bonus-point, their season is over and they will be playing Challenge Cup rugby next season. All the teams above will be safely in play-off rugby, and have their own Champions Cup spots locked in.
Given their points difference is 52 worse than Ulster, if Connacht lose and pick up one bonus-point, they would need Ulster to suffer a huge defeat against Glasgow, while Richie Murphy’s side would also need to score three tries or less. In reality, that's probably not happening.
A defeat with two bonus-points, or a draw, at the Hive, would see them needing one of Ulster or Cardiff to lose without picking up any bonus-points of their own.
If Stuart Lancaster’s side win without a four-try bonus, then they would move to 53 points, still needing one of Ulster, Cardiff or Munster to slip up over the course of the weekend.
Naturally, a bonus-point win puts them in the best possible position to qualify; If they get the four-try win and one of Ulster or Cardiff slip up on Friday night, Connacht would be safe.
Even if Ulster and Cardiff both also win, Connacht’s fate would come down to Munster v Lions, where the western province would be either hoping that the Lions win, or that Munster win and deny the Lions any bonus-points.
Ulster
Currently: Eighth (50 points)
Opposition: Home to Glasgow Warriors (Friday, 7.45pm)
It’s worth repeating, even if Ulster drop out of the top eight this weekend, Richie Murphy’s side can still secure qualification for next season’s Champions Cup if they win the Challenge Cup final against Montpellier next week.
If they beat Glasgow Warriors this Friday with a bonus-point, then their play-off spot and Champions Cup qualification will be guaranteed, although their highest possible finish in the table is fifth.
Even a win without a bonus-point should be enough, given their vastly superior points difference over Connacht.
A draw would leave them sweating. If they draw with Glasgow, while scoring at least four tries, they would hope Connacht either lose, draw, or win without scoring four tries.
A regular draw or a defeat for Ulster would realistically mean Connacht could overtake them with a win of any kind.
Munster
Currently: Fifth (51 points)
Opposition: Home to the Lions (Saturday, 7.45pm)
For the third time in four seasons, Munster’s place in the top half of the table will come right down to the final round of the regular season.
With Munster playing on Saturday night, and Connacht, Ulster and Cardiff all in action on Friday, their qualification could actually be sorted before a ball is even kicked at Thomond Park. Equally, they could be going into Saturday night needing to win.
While they could technically finish fourth in the table and get a home quarter-final, the reality of that happening looks very slim, with the Bulls at home to Benetton, who have nothing to play for.
A win of any kind will ensure they finish no lower than fifth, leapfrogging this weekend’s opponents, and facing an away quarter-final against either the Bulls or Leinster.
In the event of a draw or a defeat, they would need one of Connacht, Ulster or Cardiff to either draw or lose, which would guarantee eighth place.
In more simple terms, if Connacht, Ulster and Cardiff all win on Friday night, then only a win on Saturday will be enough for Munster.
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