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Schmidt must abandon Six Nations and focus on 'Johnny-come-lately' World Cup

France away in early February is next up for Ireland
France away in early February is next up for Ireland

"I don’t want hope. Hope is killing me. My dream is to become hopeless. When you’re hopeless you don’t care. And when you don’t care, that indifference makes you attractive."

Hope abounds in Irish rugby after a November clean sweep, but two years out from the World Cup, it seems like a phoney war has been won.

Right now Australia, South Africa and Argentina look pretty indifferent. Does anyone doubt that by the time we pitch up in Japan in less than two years they will start looking attractive?

There may not be much reason to the global rugby calendar, but there is a rhythm. Every November the southern hemisphere sides take a lucrative jaunt to Europe before hitting the beach.

That is not to suggest they lack motivation, but these battle-hardened teams can be depleted or fatigued after a long season and, if Europe's finest are ever going to take Rugby Championship scalps, it will be on home turf in November.

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"The area that interest me the most is how much room for improvement have we between now and the World Cup," asked Ronan O’Gara on RTÉ Rugby’s Facebook Live. 

"South Africa have a huge amount of improvement in them, so do Australia, so do Argentina. Scotland are going really well," he added.

"We haven't cracked the World Cup or been anywhere near cracking it, so that must be a worry. We are competing at such a high level, year in year out, month in month out. Are they chilling with a capacity to really go for a World Cup, or how are they approaching this?

Ireland's own November record under Joe Schmidt is 10 wins from 13 Tests, including six wins from nine outings against Argentina, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

It is a record that contrasts very favourably with Ireland's World Cup history. Pool wins over Argentina and Australia in 2003 and 2011 respectively over-shadowed by multiple knockout defeats to both.

There is no guarantee that a tunnel-visioned focus on Japan 2019 would yield that long-awaited semi-final berth, but it could not do any harm.

The Ireland head coach, however, has dismissed the notion of prioritising the World Cup over the Six Nations.

"I would pay the utmost respect to the Six Nations. That’s our tournament. That’s what we play," he told RTÉ Sport following Saturday's win over Argentina.

"It’s got a lot longer history than the World Cup, which is really Johnny-come-lately.

"And while it takes the overall precedence, the Six Nations is such a phenomenal title to get and it’s so tough."

Perhaps compared to the long, venerable, 134-year history of the Six Nations, the World Cup is a Johnny-come-lately, but it is high time Ireland devoted it their undivided attention.

My colleague Conor Neville argued coherently in favour of the international soccer team abandoning Euro 2020 qualifying to build a coherent style of play.

Schmidt has developed Ireland's style of play over the past four years, now he should use the 2018 and 2019 Six Nations to identify and blood the players needed to implement that gameplan.

This time four years ago. With the 2015 World Cup still two years away, Schmidt beat Samoa in his first match in charge of Ireland before succumbing to the Wallabies. However November ended on something of a high as Ireland came within seconds of beating the All Blacks and spoiling their perfect season.

That 24-22 defeat, like this year's wins, convinced Irish rugby folk that Schmidt's team could mix it with the best of the southern hemisphere. Two years later Ireland made their customary quarter-final exit at the hands of an Argentina side they beat twice on home soil just over a year earlier.

Injuries suffered in the historic pool win over France were a mitigating factor, but modern rugby is a brutally attritional game and failing to install strength and depth is a failing, not an excuse.

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Ian Madigan played the final five minutes of that two-point loss to the All Blacks. When Schmidt selected him to start the 2015 World Cup quarter-final in place of the injured Sexton, he had started three Tests since the All Blacks game - against Georgia, Scotland and Romania. Understandably he failed to influence the game like a fit and firing Sexton.

There is much talk now about the potential of Joey Carbery but it risks being unfulfilled if he cannot gain more experience as a Test fly-half before he flies to Japan, presumably as cover for a 34-year-old Sexton. Paddy Jackson will similarly require more game time at the highest level if he travels to Japan.

There are similar individuals all over the field - from Rob Herring at hooker to James Ryan in the second row, Kieran Marmion at scrum-half and Andrew Conway at full-back.

Rory Best, Iain Henderson, Conor Murray and Rob Kearney are vital to the Irish cause, but as the various fates of Simon Zebo, Donnacha Ryan, Jared Payne and Sean Cronin have displayed - Schmidt cannot rely upon the eligibility, health and form of his starting XV for 22 months.

The November clean sweep cannot be interpreted as anything but good news, however there is always the sneaking fear that Ireland’s perennial consistency under Schmidt may not be in our long-term World Cup benefits.

"There are not big drops in our performance," said Shane Horgan on RTÉ Rugby’s Facebook Live after the Argentina victory. 
 
"We are consistently pretty excellent. It is now how do we get up to that final icing on the cake, that extra 10 percent. How do we be absolutely ruthless and absolutely excellent."

Sometimes being ruthless will come at a cost. Ireland won two Six Nations on the spin between the All Blacks loss and that defeat to Argentina in Cardiff.

The last result stands out as the most memorable in Ireland’s recent rugby past. 

George Constanza would say it was the hope that killed us. Perhaps a little indifference to the Six Nations is the way to go. 

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