Much has been written about the last time these two sides met. A whirlwind first half in the Aviva Stadium – referee Nigel Owens said it was the most atmospheric half-time he had ever witnessed – saw Ireland lead 22-7 at the break.
Minds drifted towards the lowering of New Zealand colours; prematurely as it turned out.
The hosts failed to score in the second half – Johnny Sexton’s late miss to push the advantage to eight points was a “game changer” according to Kieran Reid – and Steven Hansen’s side did what they do best. They dug deep and backed themselves to score.
Substitute Ryan Crotty crossed with the clock in the red, Aaron Cruden knocked over the difficult conversion at the second time of asking, and their unbeaten 2013 was complete. Ireland’s wait would continue. At least 1,077 days as it turns out.
Crotty score in injury-time against Ireland in 2013
Perhaps Ireland can take some consolation in helping to shape, in some part, the all-conquering side they face in Chicago later today (KO 8.0pm) at Soldier Field.
Since that fateful day in November, the All Blacks have played 35 games, losing just twice.
A last-minute penalty from Pat Lambie in Johannesburg (2014) was the visitors’ first defeat in almost two years, while last year Australia got the better of their Bledisloe rivals in Sydney. Their only win in their last 16 games against their neighbours.
Two small blots in an otherwise immaculate copybook. The reigning world champions have swept all before them in the Rugby Championship and at times in June made Wales look like a decidedly average side.
That narrow escape in Dublin, coupled with the fear of becoming the first All Blacks side to lose to Ireland, has sharpened the focus.
Julian Savea, who will win his 50th cap on Saturday, Joe Moody, Beauden Barrett and Ben Smith have all spoke of the physicality they expect from Joe Schmidt’s side and it starts with the tight exchanges at the breakdown.
Julian Savea charges past Rob Kearney in 2012
“They are always physical, it’s always a Test match to remember,” Savea said, who scored in the second-half comeback in Dublin.
“The last time we played them in 2013, it was a close encounter. I know they want to redeem themselves and show why they are one of the top teams.
Smith, facing Ireland for the fifth time, referenced the impact the narrow victory has had on the side.
“The tactics they brought that day were really useful,” he said.
"The way that they [Ireland] use their kicking game is really smart"
“We learned a lot from that game and how to deal with that pressure they put on us that day. We have a few days of dealing with that.”
So what exactly did they learn, and where do they expect Ireland to be strong?
Prop forward Moody has pinpointed a tactical kicking strategy and Smith expects to Jonathan Sexton to play a key role in marching his green troops around the park.
“The way that they use their kicking game is really smart. We needed to adjust and we were probably a little slow to do that,” Smith conceded when reflecting on 2013.
“When they do employ a good kicking game, you have got to find ways around it, manipulate it in your favour.
“We’ve talked about all those things and how we will counter-act them this weekend.”
Sexton will be central to Ireland's attacking strategy
Can Ireland realistically expect to end their All Blacks hoodoo this weekend?
A first win on South African soil fresh in the memory will lift hopes within camp, but they will need all the chips falling their way.
The assertion from camp New Zealand that Ireland will be a tough nut to crack may be more than just a public relations exercise.
Any backline with Rob Kearney, Andrew Trimble and Robbie Henshaw is unlikely to be found wanting in the physical exchanges and Brian O’Driscoll has spoken effusively about Jared Payne’s importance as the defensive lynchpin in midfield.
Payne’s displays in South Africa did little to those who championed his inclusion at full-back rather than centre, but Schmidt’s reluctance to throw Garry Ringrose into the bear’s pit is understandable.
Kearney returns for his first Irish start in nine months, with the tactical kicking highlighted by the Kiwis likely to come from his booming touch finders.
Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett are undoubtedly the best half-back pairing in the business, but their opponents Stateside are among their nearest challengers.
Sexton will be looking to exercise the ghosts of his missed penalty three years ago and any attacking opportunities will have to be maximised.
Conor Murray too will relish the chance to pit his wits against the returning Aaron Smith, who will be itching to get back to matters on the pitch after his controversial absence.
Up front however is perhaps where the real intrigue, and indeed opportunity for Ireland, lies.
Realistically, even parity in the front row would be gladly accepted.
Tadhg Furlong’s only previous start was in the second Test in South Africa against the ‘Beast’ Tendai Mtawarira where he showed his power in the set-piece and Joe Moody will be a different, if not more challenging prospect.
Furlong made a big impression on the South African tour
Rory Best and Jack McGrath will be put to the pin of their collar against Dane Coles and Owen Franks respectively, but behind them, the All Blacks are stretching their resources.
The loss of Brodie Retallick, IRB Player of the Year in 2014, has been compounded by the unavailability of Sam Whitelock and Luke Romano, two players who made their Test debuts against Ireland.
The versatile Jerome Kaino will deputise in the second row, joined by Patrick Tuipulotu for his 11th cap.
Devin Toner and Donnacha Ryan will look to exploit the high-profile absentees, with the All Blacks expecting the lineout to be key to Ireland’s attacking play.
CJ Stander has moved seamlessly into the Test arena and with seven caps, boasts more international pedigree than his direct opponent Liam Squire.
The Highlanders flanker is a noted ball carrier of his own, but the Munster captain will look to stamp his authority on proceedings and will be not short of motivation after his red card in Cape Town.
Jordi Murphy’s inclusion ahead of Josh van der Flier suggests a certain gameplan at openside, while Jamie Heaslip’s battle with Kieran Read, perhaps the most complete rugby player at the present time, will go a long way towards deciding the outcome.
Conor Murray and Jamie Heaslip stop Dane Coles in his tracks
Schmidt’s options from the bench offers hope for the future and an injection of pace in the final quarter, but Hansen’s options are envious.
TJ Perenara, an able deputy for Smith in the last two rounds of the Rugby Championship, Aaron Cruden and Malakai Fekitoa will be chomping at the bit to stake their claims for a starting berth, while Scott Barrett and Ardie Savea will hope to join their respective brothers on the pitch.
And speaking of the pitch, that too could have an impact on the All Blacks’ expansive game, with the width of Soldier Field more restricted than they would like.
Buenos Aires in September was a similar proposition and Smith revealed that it is a factor in their build-up.
“You want to make sure with a smaller ground that you are using it to your advantage.
“I think with the way we want to use the back three, we’ve got to work really hard and we’ve got a few ways of embracing the field,” he said.
No doubt a detailed-oriented coach like Schmidt has ideas of his own up his sleeve, while the thousands of Irish fans expected to flock to Soldier Field should have the effect of making it a “home from home” feel for Ireland.
“Maybe they hate the colour black,” was Savea’s light-hearted response when asked why Ireland have never come out the right side of the fixture, though it is ability, rather than fear, which has done for Ireland in the past.
Realistically, only an off-colour performance from the Kiwis will offer any hope of ripping up the history books.
Logic, form and ability points to a New Zealand win, but stranger things have happened.
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