It's crunch time for Ireland this weekend as they face the back-to-back world champions in an attempt to achieve something they have never done before – qualify for a World Cup semi-final.
Joe Schmidt’s men go into this weekend’s quarter-final against New Zealand with a 67% success rate against them in the period between this World Cup and the last.
Some of the younger players in the team are more familiar with beating the All Blacks than they are losing to them.
This can only drive the Irish confidence in what should be one of the most intense preparation weeks of their careers.
On the other side of it there are still a number of experienced players that have been on the other end of New Zealand in their prime but which mentality will win out in the build-up to Saturday’s mammoth Test?
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Will there be a fragile undercurrent in an otherwise optimistic camp?
It will all depend on the kind of start to the game that Ireland get.
They will need to look at the template of the first 20 minutes in the South Africa vs New Zealand game in round 1 of the tournament.
South Africa transferred the pressure on to New Zealand and played the game away from their own half, following that up with a ferocious intensity in defence that had the All Blacks scrambling and playing on the back foot.
Uncharacteristically, Pollard missed a kick at goal and you just got the sense that it was the sniff that New Zealand needed to turn things around.
They were incredibly efficient when it came to attacking opportunities and took scores from most of their chances.
Andy Farrell’s defence is going to have to have its best performance of this World Cup cycle if Ireland are to have any chance of winning this game.
Schmidt showed a new way of beating New Zealand last year when Ireland chose not to kick out of their own territory.
Instead, they held on to possession and starved their visitors of the ball for long periods of the match. Will they go with the same approach?
Has their ball-retention been as accurate this time round? I don’t think it has, especially when they have had to shift the point of contact beyond two phases.
New Zealand may look to use a template that England succeeded with in the 2019 Six Nations.
They kicked balls into the corners, which took some line speed away from the dominant Irish defence.
If nothing else, it made Ireland turn quite often and sowed a bit of doubt in the intense front line of defence that is synonymous with the game at present.
With two out-halves in their back line, Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett, New Zealand could look to do the same and force Ireland to play out from deep in their own territory.
You’d wonder whether the extended preparation as a result of storm Hagibis will actually suit the Kiwis?
If nothing else they would have wanted some more game time for the likes of Brodie Retallick but on the other hand they will have had plenty of time to focus on Ireland in the last week or ten days.
While Ireland would have had to spend some of their time reviewing the Samoan game, New Zealand probably already had their previews of Ireland done and could spend the rest of the week focusing on themselves and the combinations they will use going into the quarter-final.
An extra game probably suited Ireland’s confidence, outside of losing Bundee Aki to a three-game ban, because the 47-5 win with 14 men against a physical Samoan side is just another step on the current path to rebuilding their confidence.
The difference in preparation time will surely be a talking point right up to the final whistle but the players won’t feel any different about it. None of the two camps will feel like they had a poor preparation so the excuses on that end won’t hold up.
Whether or not Nigel Owens will have a meaningful effect on the game is something that we will find out on Saturday afternoon.
He generally allows a free-flowing game, which might suit New Zealand more than Ireland, especially because of where the game is being played.
If this was away from the humidity or potential heat of Japan I would back Ireland’s conditioning all day but I wouldn’t be as confident after seeing a lot of guys suffering from the humidity in the Japanese game.
Maybe the humidity is lower now but there’s no doubt that playing in Japan would suit New Zealand, if it is to be an advantage for any of the two teams.
The Kiwis will prefer an open, free-flowing game more than Ireland who I would suspect will be trying to dictate the pace of the game with a solid set piece and a lot of controlled possession.
However, Ireland did take the game to them in Chicago so we will have to wait to see what tricks Joe has up his sleeve this time.
Just how strong will the Irish focus and confidence be this week?
Are they going to break down more barriers after already beating New Zealand in this World Cup cycle for the first time, as well as starting the tournament as the number one ranking?
Do they have another monumental victory in their locker or will we see the 'curse’ of the quarter-final breaking into their psyche.
I don’t think we can call this a quarter-final curse if Ireland are to bow out against the reigning champions because of the magnitude of the task that lies ahead.
Even AIL rugby has been pushed back to 4pm on Saturday afternoon to allow people to watch the Ireland game.
The Irish public will be glued to this one whether they are shouting for Ireland or this recent trend of other Irish sports going against the game of rugby.
Either way it bears a lot of significance for Irish rugby this weekend and all eyes will be on Tokyo at 11.15am.
Follow Ireland v New Zealand on Saturday 19 October (kick-off 11.15am) via the live blog on RTÉ.ie/Sport and the News Now App, watch live on RTÉ2 or listen to live match commentary on RTÉ Radio 1.
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Follow all four Rugby World Cup quarter-finals this weekend via our live blogs on RTE.ie/Sport and the News Now app, or watch live on RTÉ2.
