Ireland are already in the quarter-finals but this weekend’s matches will play a huge role in determining their chance of lifting the Rugby World Cup.
As most people know, Ireland’s match against France will dictate whether they face New Zealand or Argentina in the next round of the tournament.
But events in other pools mean that Ireland’s potential path to the finals are also much clearer.
Seven of the quarter-finalists are already known and in the case of South Africa it is also certain that they will qualify in top spot in Pool B. New Zealand are also virtually certain to qualify at the top of Pool C with Argentina set to finish second.
Like Ireland and France, Wales and Australia will play for the right to finish top of Pool A this weekend.
One thing we know for certain is that if Ireland lose to France, they will play New Zealand in Cardiff at 8pm on Saturday 17 October while, if they win, their opponent will be Argentina, again in Cardiff, at 1pm on Sunday 18 October.
Looking a stage further ahead, Ireland’s likely semi-final opponents depend on results in the final group games this weekend.
At that stage, all the action moves to Twickenham, with both semi-finals (24/25 October) and the final (31 October) set to take place English rugby's HQ. The 3rd/4th place play-off is fixed for the Olympic Stadium on 30 October.
We do know that whatever happens this weekend there are essentially four teams Ireland can meet in the semi-final: Australia, South Africa, Wales and Scotland.
If Ireland lose to France but then manage to beat New Zealand, their most likely semi-final opponent is South Africa. The Springboks play the loser of this weekend’s meeting between Wales and Australia in their last eight tie.
If Ireland head down the easier path, beating France and then Argentina, that would set up a possible meeting with Australia, Wales or Scotland.
That could be followed by a meeting New Zealand in the final though, as the All Blacks have found in the past, upsets are a distinct possibility in the knockout stages.
But the value of beating France this weekend is that Ireland would probably have to beat New Zealand, South Africa and Australia in successive matches to win the competition if they fail to do so.
The dream scenario set up by a win over France on Sunday is a path to the final featuring Argentina in the quarter-final and Wales or Scotland in the semis, though that would mean Wales beating Australia on Saturday.
