Joe Brolly thinks Mayo will struggle to qualify for the All-Ireland semi-finals after their comprehensive Super 8s defeat to Kerry on Sunday.
The Connacht men have contested four finals this decade but are playing in the round robin stage for the first time after being knocked out in the qualifiers last summer.
James Horan is back in charge and expectations were high after their Allianz Football League triumph in the spring but a 10-point defeat in the opening group game in Killarney leaves them with a mountain to climb.
Based on their performances to date, Brolly believes it is one that is far too steep.
"Ah they're gone. They're definitely gone," the Derry All-Ireland winner said on The Sunday Game.
"Mayo are far too ad hoc. I was in Newry for the Down game and they flirted with disaster that night. Down missed three open goals in the second half that would have won the game for them.
"Armagh ought to have beaten them. Young (Rory) Grugan went around the keeper and the whole of MacHale Park, they all put their heads in their hands."
Tomas Ó Sé thinks the Green and Red are still in with a shot if they can get back on track against Meath at Croke Park, which would keep their fate in their own hands for a third-round showdown with Donegal.
"I wouldn't say they are gone," said the Kerryman.
"If they beat Meath then it goes to Donegal coming to Castlebar.
"The game next week against Meath is huge."