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Ray Silke: Mayo big guns will fire them to safety

Aidan O'Shea (C) is accosted by Roscommon’s Conor Daly and Sean Purcell
Aidan O'Shea (C) is accosted by Roscommon’s Conor Daly and Sean Purcell

After six league games to date, all teams in Division 1 and Division 2 will know their league fate for 2017 after their seventh outing this weekend

For some in Division 1, such as Dublin, and almost certainly Kerry and Roscommon and Tyrone, and either Cavan or Galway in Division 2, this Sunday will mean another game or two to hone themselves for the upcoming championship action, which is a big plus for those sides involved in league semi-finals and finals.

At the other end of the spectrum, Down know already they that they were well out of their depth in the top tier this season and they make an immediate return to the second tier where they will be joined by either Monaghan, Cork, Donegal or Mayo.

Considering that Monaghan have to try and defeat Donegal and vice versa, whereas Mayo are at home to Down, the probability of staying up looks to be strongly in Stephen Rochford's sides favour.

ALLIANZ FOOTBALL LEAGUE DIVISION 1 - SUNDAY 3 APRIL

Mayo v Down, McHale Park, 1400

Mayo had a very good win over Roscommon last weekend and with Cillian O'Connor back in their forward division and the three O'Shea brothers moving well, it is impossible to predict anything except a home win and Division 1 safety for the red and green.

They start the defence of their Connacht championship with a handy trip to London before they take on Galway in McHale Park on 18 June.

Roscommon v Dublin, Dr Hyde Park, 1400

Roscommon have done very well in this division and their approach will be the template for either Galway or Cavan when one of those two join them in Division 1 next season. 

The Rossies trained really hard in pre-season in the latter end of 2015 and were first out of the blocks and got a few early victories to guarantee safety and a probable semi-final berth.

Kevin McStay and Fergal O'Donnell will have one eye on the U-21 Connacht final against Mayo on Saturday and they may struggle a bit against the Dublin forward unit. That said Dublin have nothing to play for so that gives Roscommon a sporting opportunity.

It would look well on their league CV if they could state that they beat both Kerry and Dublin in the same three-month period.

A win for Dublin would be their seventh on the trot and those that have them backed to be unbeaten all season would be on closer to that objective. 

However, with the absence of Rory O'Carroll and Jack McCaffrey for the impending championship, the odds on that have shortened considerably. Not even the mighty Dubs can be without two current All Stars and not feel some pain.

Kerry v Cork, Austin Stack Park, 1400

Kerry are establishing a familiar look to their team with 'Star', Cooper and Moran all coming back to form. It will be interesting to see how Paul Murphy does in a centre-forward role if he is maintained in that position for the league semi-finals and Munster championship.

After four solid wins over Down, Donegal, Mayo and Monaghan last weekend the Kingdom are on a nice run of form and after taking two big defeats in the 2014 and 2015 league to Cork they will want a return to what they consider the natural order of things: ie a Kerry victory.

Monaghan v Donegal, Castleblayney, 1400

The winner in this clash saves themselves a trapdoor face-off assuming Mayo beat Down.

Malachy O' Rourke's side must win here to avoid the drop - and that will be tough enough against a battle-hardened Donegal outfit who are after three defeats on the trot and an U-21 championship loss during the week to Tyrone which will have the county hurting.

Rory Gallagher's boys will well psyched up for a win considering that Monaghan have beaten them on the last two occasions they have met including last year's Ulster final.

It's an extremely hard game to call with the bookies having both sides priced at 11/10 and the draw that would keep Donegal in Division 1 is 6/1.

There is very little between the sides and a draw is not that improbable at all.

ALLIANZ FOOTBALL LEAGUE DIVISION 2 - SUNDAY 3 APRIL

With Tyrone in the league final, the biggest game in Division 2 on Sunday is between Cavan and Galway [Breffni Park, 1400] to see who will join the Red Hands in the league final on 24 April in Croke Park and in Division 1 in 2017.

Galway manager Kevin Walsh and his entire panel know that a lethargic and disjointed performance such as the one they produced in the second half last weekend against Fermanagh will be a long way from sufficient. 

Former Galway star and this year's UCD Sigerson-winning manager John Divilly told me earlier this week that he believes that Galway will have to produce their best display of the entire league to beat Terry Hyland's charges, who he rates quite highly.

He has been especially impressed with David Givney and Gearoid McKiernan and some of their younger players such their centre-back and full-back Conor Moynagh and Cillian Clarke who has been the Jordanstown Sigerson captain for the past two years.

Based on the fact that Cavan are on the back of four impressive wins on the trot whereas Galway have been extremely inconsistent themselves in their three recent draws with Meath, Armagh and Fermanagh you would have to say the probability of success rests with the home side especially if the mercurial Seanie Johnston is available for the Breffni men who had eleven different scores in last weeks victory over Laois.

At the other end of the table the losers of Laois and Meath [O'Moore Park, 1400] go down to Division 3 for next year. It is a hard game to call and Laois are at home, however, I suspect that Meath can just summon a big 70 minutes to avoid the drop.

Laois have lost four on the trot and conceded 5-10 against Derry recently which is a huge tally of goals for any serious side to let in. 

They have the worst defensive concession record [118 in six games] of any team in the four divisions which would not inspire much confidence. Meath should sneak through here.

Assuming that Tyrone, who are unbeaten in their previous six games, are too strong for Fermanagh [Brewster Park, 1400], and that Armagh can even get a point from their clash at home against a Derry side with nothing to play for [Athletic Grounds, 1400] it will be Fermanagh who join Laois in Division 3 in 2017.

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