Over the last five seasons, six counties have made it to at least two All-Ireland football semi-finals. Only one of those have failed to make it to the biggest day of the year - Derry.
Kerry and Galway (both twice), Dublin, Donegal and Tyrone have all found a way into the Sam Maguire showpiece, but Derry tried and narrowly failed in back-to-back semi-finals in 2022 and '23.
Ahead of the start of another All-Ireland campaign, this time under Ciarán Meenagh – the interim boss for the latter of those two semi-finals - the mood music in Derry, outside the camp at least, is not exactly brimming with positivity.
In some ways, Derry are the forgotten men of this year's All-Ireland series. But distant voices can still make noise.
Armagh are up first, away from home, an initial draw to make Derry suck in air through their teeth but, as the game nears, chinks of optimism are emerging.
Provincial champions have struggled in this round, as Kerry and Roscommon know all too well, and Armagh didn’t exactly blow Monaghan away in the Ulster decider.
Derry, famously, were the victim of a typical Oriel County semi-final comeback, but for so long in that contest, Meenagh’s side were operating on a completely different level to their opponents.
However, Armagh also provide a paragon of what Derry supporters feel is the vital component their team is missing in clutch moments – squad depth.
The Orchard County’s 2024 All-Ireland triumph was put down to the expanse of options off the bench.
In the decider against Galway, Kieran McGeeney introduced Stefan Campbell, who set up Aaron McKay for the match-winning goal, Oisín O’Neill, Ross McQuillan, Jarly Óg Burns and Jason Duffy.
With Campbell, Rian O’Neill, Connaire Mackin and Niall Grimley no longer involved, Ben Crealey out for the season and Aidan Forker, Barry McCambridge and Rory Grugan to, this point, limited to small cameos due to injury, such luxuries were expected to dry up.
However, McGeeney has managed to regenerate with fresh, young talent.
From their first 15 in the 2024 final, only eight started in their Ulster final against Monaghan two weeks ago. For the team named for this evening’s game, the number falls to seven.
Massive turnover in just under two years and in stark contrast to Meenagh’s playing pool.
Some 1021 days have passed between that 2023 semi-final, where they led Kerry by two points with five minutes to go, and this year’s Ulster semi-final loss to Monaghan, but 11 starters remained the same.
Goalkeeper Odhrán Lynch may have made it 12 only for injury [he returned to club action with Magherafelt a fortnight ago] while Chrissy McKaigue has moved from player to selector. Niall Toner came off the bench against Monaghan, with Ciaran McFaul no longer involved.
The feeling in Derry is not that they have missed the boat, more that they needed more sailors to man it, especially in those oft-choppy final 15 minutes of cutthroat championship football.
The fact that Niall Loughlin and Conor Doherty both came off and then went back on in the extra-time loss to Monaghan hasn’t helped such a perception. It needs to be noted that Cian McConville and Darragh McMullen both came on and off for Armagh in the final too but winning and losing, even if both after extra-time, carry different narratives.
Back in 2020, Derry GAA set up a games development committee to see why they were lagging. That was just after they had escaped Division 4.
They relied heavily on conversations with the game’s most successful counties, Dublin’s Ger O’Connor, now the county’s director of coaching and games development, and Kerry GAA’s then coaching officer Terence Houlihan proving particularly sturdy leaning posts.
One of the core ambitions of Derry’s eventual development plan was "an increased pool of players who can play at elite level for our county teams" via avenues such as district teams in the county’s senior championship and games promotion officers for clubs.
In short, they wanted more depth for the senior inter-county football team.
Earlier that year, in their 2020 Ulster loss to Armagh, 12 of the 26 players on the matchday panel were from Glen or Sleacht Néill. Throw in a couple of players from Swatragh, and it meant 13 of the 19 used on the day were from the town of Maghera or a mile or two outside it.
Meenagh’s 30-man squad for the trip to Armagh tonight does lean heavily on two clubs – Magherafelt with six players and Lavey with five – but only three of those are listed to start and with 13 clubs represented in all; it does feel like a more wide-ranging collective.
Their 30 players, including standby players, for this evening's game are made up of some of the most promising young talents to emerge from Ulster in recent years, such as James Sargent, Conall Higgins and dual star Ruairí Ó Mianáin - with the county lifting the Tom Markham Cup three times since 2020.
And yet, the evolution from three years ago still feels minimal, perhaps inevitable in a county that has had seven managers in the same span as McGeeney’s Armagh reign. In short-term stints, managers tend to opt for the tried and tested.
The upside of that is Derry will field a starting team that on paper looks a solid match-up to any side in the All-Ireland. A side that will have five All-Star players to Armagh’s two. A side that has made two All-Ireland semi-finals to Armagh’s one in recent times.
Whispers in Derry of key players looking enervated this campaign should be offset by the extended break that benefited Donegal and Tyrone so evidently last weekend.
This is a chance to not only claim a big scalp, but remind the country that they're still here just a few short years after mixing it with the best.
In 2022, Galway, in a semi-final dominated by Hawkeye malfunctions, showed Derry where they needed to go. A year later, the Oakleafers looked on course for a famous win over Kerry at the same juncture only for a late Kingdom surge.
When they lifted the Division 1 title a few months later, it seemed they were only on an upward trajectory.
Since then, Donegal's four goals at Celtic Park seemed to change everything, it’s been more questions than answers.
This is an excellent opportunity to provide a scathing riposte. Last year, when Derry really were in crisis mode, they trailed Armagh by 13 points in their All-Ireland group game at the same venue but brought the gap back to four by the end, and it would have been even closer only for a three fine Ethan Rafferty saves in the second half.
They have undoubtedly steadied under Meenagh, ending a 13-game winless run against Tyrone in January and winning five from seven since, and wondering how they let a sixth - that defeat to Monaghan - slip.
The forgotten contenders of the 2020s have a chance to reignite their credentials after a couple of fallow years. Be warned, Armagh.
Watch Mayo v Monaghan in the All-Ireland Football Championship first round on Sunday from 3.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow our live blog on RTÉ.ie/sport and RTÉ News app and listen to Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
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