The significance of Kerry’s win last year is huge. If you look back to 2009, it was the 'startled earwigs’ game where Kerry hammered Dublin and from then Dublin had all the significant wins: 2011, 2015 and ’19 finals.
But for them to come through that semi-final last year, and in the manner that they did, with a huge free-kick from Seán O’Shea, you could see the elation and that it was a big milestone for them.
We were the same when we beat Tyrone in 2010 and ’11. When you overcome the benchmark team it gives you great confidence.
But it comes with a caveat. There’s a bit of an asterisk beside it because it was a watered-down version of Dublin. This weekend, we’re going to see the real Dublin team, with Stephen Cluxton, Jack McCaffrey and Paul Mannion back. So Kerry will know they’re going to be facing a different animal this season.
James McCarthy, Cluxton and Mick Fitzsimons are all going for nine All-Ireland medals. No other footballer has been able to achieve that, so it's quite significant. If they were to walk up the steps on Sunday, there would be a certain level of emotion I would feel, playing right through with them from the start of my career.
The intensity, the commitment, both on and off the pitch, to keep your body in the physical shape to be able to perform, and not just perform but perform to the highest standards. These guys have been doing so well this year and I think it's just incredible to see.
That adds a bit of excitement to the game because we know that in Kerry they enjoy celebrating their own legacy as a proud county. For Dublin to have the only players to have nine All-Irelands would be significant.
But I don’t think it will play on the players’ minds going into the game. Maybe when they get a bit of perspective, like I have now being away from the game, they might enjoy that a bit more.
These games take on a life of their own. When you have two teams that are so evenly matched, it’s a case of big plays, big moments, big players stepping up.
You can look at kickouts, attacking patterns, who’s going to get the sweeper in defence but both teams will broadly mirror one another. They’ll have similar tactics that they’re going to employ, it’s about who can employ them better on the day.
But when you’re down the stretch, the last five or ten minutes, who’s going to step up and go and win the game? That’s going to be the question and I think that’s where Dublin’s bench is that bit stronger.
It will be interesting to see how they line out from the start. We see Stephen O’Brien starting for Kerry. That shows a certain intent that they’re going to go for it from the start, he’s a very direct player.
The question now is will Dublin start Ciaran Kilkenny? He has been making a serious impact off the bench [and was again named as a sub today] but he won’t want to play there. I think Kerry would prefer if he’s on the bench. But with the impact he has been having, it’s going to be a big call for Dessie Farrell.
David Clifford is an unbelievable player. I don’t think you can say enough about him, he’s that good. But I think Dublin have to focus on Dublin, they can’t get too consumed by one player because it can derail you and mess up your whole tactics. They have to have confidence in the defenders that are there and the team defence, that they can create a sweeper and try to nullify his impact.
There is a certain element of damage limitation. He’s going to kick points, it’s just a matter of how many and are they going to be the big points to win the game or not?
The midfield battle is big for me. When you look at Kerry, 43% of all their scores have come from kickouts but they have been going long as well, not just short kickouts and working the ball up. And Dublin have been so aggressive on the opposition kickout.
So that’s going to be a key battle. Dublin have a phenomenal midfield area, stronger in my opinion, and if Kerry go for that risky longer kickout and Dublin get on top there, they could get punished. You can’t get your defensive structure set up when you lose the kickout, that’s the risk you take when you go long. But in All-Ireland finals you have to take risks, you can’t just be safe because you’ll be picked off. So I think they’ll stick with that game plan.
Verdict: I think Dublin are going to win by a single score
Paul Flynn was speaking on RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland
Watch the All-Ireland Football Championship final, Dublin v Kerry, this Sunday from 2.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player, follow a live blog on RTÉ.ie/Sport and the RTÉ News app or listen to live commentary on Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio
Watch highlights on The Sunday Game, 9.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player
