Pro-EU Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski has scored a narrow win in the first round of Poland's presidential election and will face nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki in the June 1 runoff, official results showed.
An overall victory for Mr Trzaskowski would be a boost for the centrist government led by former European Union leader Donald Tusk, which has been at loggerheads with the current nationalist president.
A win for Mr Nawrocki would likely extend the political deadlock in the EU and NATO country and analysts predict that fresh parliamentary elections may have to be called.
With all ballots counted, the national election commission said Mr Trzaskowski won 31.36% against 29.54% for Mr Nawrocki in yesterday's first round.
The far-right showed strong gains, as its two candidates received a combined 21.15%.
That suggests the key to the runoff will be whether the far-right's supporters back Mr Nawrocki in the second round.
Turnout was over 67%, which is high for Poland, though lower than the record turnout of the 2023 general election that brought the centrists to power.
The two candidates have diverging views on abortion and LGBTQ rights. The election also comes at a fraught moment for Europe as Russia's invasion of Ukraine drags on and ties with the US are under strain.
An Ipsos late exit poll from the first round yesterday showed Mr Trzaskowski placed first with 31.2% of the vote, ahead of Mr Nawrocki, who had 29.7%.
The gap was much narrower than the 4-7 percentage points seen in opinion polls before the vote.
"We are going for victory. I said that it would be close and it is close," Mr Trzaskowski told supporters. "There is a lot, a lot, of work ahead of us and we need determination."
Mr Nawrocki also told supporters he was confident of victory in the second round and called on the far-right to get behind him and "save Poland."
"We have to win these elections so that there is no monopoly of power of one political group, so that there is no monolithic power in Poland," he said.
An Opinia24 poll for private broadcaster TVN published after the first round gave Mr Trzaskowski 46% in the run-off and Mr Nawrocki 44%, with 10% of voters either undecided or refusing to say.
Far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun scored more than 21% combined, a historically high score.
Mr Braun, who in 2023 used a fire extinguisher to put out Hanukkah candles in the country's parliament, an incident that caused international outrage, won 6.3% of the vote according to the late poll.
Mr Mentzen stopped short of immediately endorsing Mr Nawrocki.
"Voters... are not sacks of potatoes, they are not thrown from one place to another," he said.
"Each of our voters is a conscious, intelligent person and will make their own decision."
Stanley Bill, Professor of Polish Studies at the University of Cambridge, said the combined strong showing of nationalist and far-right parties meant the results were "a disappointment for the Trzaskowski camp and put wind in the sails of Nawrocki."
"I would add to this that the results are a significant blow to Donald Tusk's ruling coalition," Mr Bill added.
Turnout was 66.8% according to the late poll.
Presidential veto
In Poland, the president has the power to veto laws.
A victory for Mr Trzaskowski in the second round would enable Mr Tusk's government to implement an agenda that includes rolling back judicial reforms introduced by PiS that critics say undermined the independence of the courts.
However, if Mr Nawrocki wins, the impasse that has existed since Mr Tusk became prime minister in 2023 would be set to continue.
Until now, PiS-ally President Andrzej Duda has stymied Mr Tusk's efforts.
If the late poll is confirmed, the other candidates in the first round, including Mr Mentzen from the far-right Confederation Party, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of the centre-right Poland 2050 and Magdalena Biejat from the Left, will be eliminated.
One more updated poll that takes into account partial official results will be published later during the night.
Role in Europe
Mr Trzaskowski has pledged to cement Poland's role as a major player at the heart of European policymaking and work with the government to roll back PiS's judicial changes.
Mr Nawrocki's campaign was rocked by allegations, which he denies, that he deceived an elderly man into selling him a flat in return for a promise of care he did not provide.
But Mr Trump showed support by meeting Mr Nawrocki in the White House.
Mr Nawrocki casts the election as a chance to stop Mr Tusk achieving unchecked power and push back against liberal values represented by Mr Trzaskowski, who as Warsaw mayor was a patron of LGBT marches and took down Christian crosses from public buildings.
Unlike some other eurosceptics in central Europe, Mr Nawrocki supports military aid to help Ukraine fend off Russia.
However, he has tapped into anti-Ukrainian sentiment among some Poles weary of an influx of refugees from their neighbour.
He has said Polish citizens should get priority in public services and criticised Ukraine's attitude to exhumations of the remains of Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II.
