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Omicron less severe than Delta with fewer hospitalisations, two studies suggest

South African scientists said the new data tells a 'positive story'
South African scientists said the new data tells a 'positive story'

A new study from South Africa suggests that those infected with Omicron were much less likely to end up in hospital than those with Delta.

A separate study in Scotland has also suggested that people who catch the mutant coronavirus variant are less likely to be sent to hospital when compared with the Delta strain.

Meanwhile, Covid-19 cases appear to have peaked in South Africa's Gauteng province, which is its commercial hub and the region of the country where Omicron first emerged.

Scientists from the country's National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) said that while more research was needed, the new data told a "positive story" about the variant's severity.

Gauteng, home to one of Africa's busiest airports, is now seeing a fall in daily cases and the percentage of positive tests, the NICD's Michelle Groome told a news briefing.

"Really we feel that this has persisted for over a week and that we are past the peak in Gauteng," she said.

There had been a "levelling off" in three other provinces - Limpopo, North West and Mpumalanga, she added, though cases were still increasing elsewhere.

NICD data showed that the seven-day moving average of daily cases - which the scientists say is more reliable than daily confirmed cases - was on a downward trajectory in Gauteng.

A graph showed a steep rise in cases from close to zero in mid-November to an average of 10,000 daily cases early in December. That had since fallen sharply to around 5,000 per day on average.

Ms Groome cautioned that some of the lower case numbers could be due to lower levels of testing during the holiday period.

South Africa, now maintaining the lowest level of a five-tier system of restrictions despite a rapid surge in infections, is monitoring hospitalisation levels very closely.

While these have also risen, they have so far remained far below the levels seen during previous waves of the pandemic.

Deaths are also lower than seen in the past and people are staying in hospital for shorter periods, the NICD's Waasila Jassat said - warning, however, that relevant data tended to lag.

Infections in the first four weeks of the fourth coronavirus wave, driven by Omicron, rose well above those seen in the previous three waves, NICD data showed.

But the proportion of people admitted to hospital stood at 5.7%, compared to above 13% in the other waves.

The proportion of people admitted to hospital who later died meanwhile dropped to 5.6%, compared with 19% or above in the first, second or third waves.

A separate study in Scotland has also suggested that people who catch the mutant coronavirus variant are less likely to be sent to hospital when compared with the Delta strain.

In a pre-print study published today, scientists in the Scotland-wide Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of Covid-19 said that the early data suggested that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in risk of hospitalisation compared with Delta.

Dr Jim McMenamin, the national Covid-19 incident director for Public Health Scotland, labelled the findings a "qualified good news story", but said that it was "important we don't get ahead of ourselves".

"The potentially serious impact of Omicron on a population cannot be underestimated.

"And a smaller proportion of a much greater number of cases that might ultimately require treatment can still mean a substantial number of people who may experience severe Covid infections that could lead to potential hospitalisation," he warned.