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South Belfast and Mid Down - SDLP set to hold safe seat

The SDLP's Claire Hanna took this seat in 2019
The SDLP's Claire Hanna took this seat in 2019

South Belfast and Mid Down has seen the most significant boundary changes.

Around 10% of its electorate has been lost to East Belfast, but it has gained parts of the former Strangford and Lagan Valley constituencies.

The changes may dent the SDLP vote, although in the circumstances, it will not affect the outcome.

The SDLP's Claire Hanna took this seat in 2019 in the teeth of the Brexit controversy.

She won it with a more than 15,000 majority over her DUP rival Emma Little-Pengelly, who is the current Stormont Deputy First Minister.

It was the second biggest majority in all 18 constituencies after that of her party leader Colum Eastwood.

She was the main nationalist candidate as Sinn Féin stood aside.

Ms Hanna also benefited from a similar decision by the Green Party.

The SDLP has decent support in the constituency and probably suffered electorally in subsequent elections.

It is back in the field this time. Sinn Féin has again announced it will not be standing in the 4 July poll, virtually guaranteeing the SDLP retention of the seat.

It has not asked its supporters to back Ms Hanna, but it has suggested they vote for "progressive parties who will reject Tory cuts," which is as good as saying vote SDLP.

The DUP's Tracy Kelly faces a challenge from the right of unionism with a TUV candidate in the field

The DUP candidate this time is Belfast Councillor Tracy Kelly.

She will struggle to post the same vote share as Ms Little-Pengelly in 2019.

Ms Kelly is a lower profile candidate and faces a challenge from the right of unionism with a TUV candidate in the field.

The TUV’s Dan Boucher is a former director of policy for the DUP.

His party is out to draw support from the DUP over what it claims is backsliding on opposition to the Irish Sea border and its checks on goods coming in from Britain.

That could allow Alliance to somersault the DUP into second place.

Its candidate is energetic former Belfast Mayor Kate Nicholl, who is a Stormont MLA.


2019 General Election

Valid votes: 47,352

Turnout: 67.91%

SDLP: 27,079

DUP: 11,678

Alliance: 6,786

UUP: 1,259

Aontú: 550


2024 Candidates

Dan Boucher - TUV

Áine Groogan - Green Party Northern Ireland

Claire Hanna - SDLP

Michael Henderson - UUP

Tracy Kelly - DUP

Kate Nicholl - Alliance