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Russia made no territorial gains in Ukraine in March - analysis

Ukraine - GETTY
Ukrainian rescuers work to extinguish a fire in a damaged residential building following a drone attack in Kharkiv

Russia's army recorded no territorial gains on the front line in Ukraine in March for the first time in two-and-a- half years, AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showed.

Ukrainian forces managed to recapture nine square kilometres in March as Moscow's forces slowed down across the entire front line, according to the analysis.

This figure excludes infiltration operations conducted by Russian forces beyond the front line, as well as advances claimed by the Russian side but neither confirmed nor denied by the ISW.

The ISW worked with the Critical Threats Project (part of the American Enterprise Institute, or AEI), another US think-tank specialising in conflict.

The Russian army has been slowing its advance since late 2025 due to counter-offensives in the southeast of the country, with 319 square kilometres of gains in January and 123 square kilometres in February, the smallest advances since April 2024.

The ISW attributed the slowdown of the Russian army in recent months to Ukrainian counter-offensives, but also to "Russia's ban on using Starlink terminals in Ukraine" and "the Kremlin's efforts to restrict access to Telegram".

The messaging app, very popular among Russians including those fighting on the front line, has been barely usable in recent months due to blocks imposed by the authorities.

As in February, Russia has lost ground on the southern section of the front line, between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where it occupied more than 400sq/km at the end of January.

This area shrank to 200sq/km in February and to 144sq/km in March. The situation was, however, unfavourable for Kyiv further north in the Donetsk region, towards the two major regional cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

In 2025, the Russian army made more progress in Ukraine than in the preceding 24 months.

But in the first three months of 2026, Russian territorial gains were half those of the same period in 2025.

Four years after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow occupies just over 19% of the country, the majority of which was seized during the first weeks of the conflict.

Approximately 7%, including Crimea and areas in the Donbas region, was already under Russian or pro-Russian separatist control before the invasion.

Russian strikes kill 2 in Ukraine, wound dozens

Russian strikes across Ukraine have killed at least two people and wounded dozens, officials said, as Moscow stepped up its deadly attacks amid stalled peace talks.

In the southeastern Kherson region, Russia attacked "with artillery, mortars and UAVs," the regional prosecutor's office said on social media.

A 42-year-old man was killed when a drone hit a civilian car, and 16 other people - including a teenage boy and three police officers - were wounded in air attacks and artillery shelling, it added.

In the Chernigiv region, north of the capital Kyiv, Russia attacked with a ballistic missile, head of Chernigiv City Military Administration Dmytro Bryzhynsky said on Telegram.

"As a result of the attack, the premises of an enterprise were damaged. According to preliminary reports, one person was killed," Mr Bryzhynsky said.

At least nine people have been wounded in strikes on Druzhkivka in the embattled Donetsk region in Ukraine's east, regional official Vadym Filashkin wrote on social media.

"The city is under constant enemy fire - today is no exception," Mr Filashkin said, adding that Russia attacked Druzhkivka with aerial bombs, damaging two administrative buildings and a private house.

Russia fired more drones at Ukraine in March than in any month since it launched its 2022 invasion, an AFP analysis showed.

The analysis, which used daily reports published by Ukraine's air force, showed Russia fired at least 6,462 long-range drones into Ukraine last month - up nearly 28% over February and the second straight monthly increase.