With just two weeks to go until the UK general election, opinions polls suggest the Conservative Party could be at risk of losing the vast majority of its seats - including in its heartlands in southern England - the so-called 'blue wall'.
One of those is Welwyn Hatfield, a constituency about 30km north of London.
For almost two decades, the seat has been held by high-profile Tory MP Grant Shapps, the current UK Defence Secretary.
Despite a majority of 10,955 votes in 2019, this constituency is a key target for Labour, with candidate Andrew Lewin hoping he can pull off a major electoral shock.
'Time for change'
For many voters in Welwyn Garden City, it is time for change.
"We're going to get rid of the Conservatives," 60-year-old Mary said confidently. "It’s not healthy for one party to be in power that long."
First-time voter Olivia, 18, believes Labour presents the best option for her, as she is "not very happy with the Conservatives at the moment".
On Mr Shapps, she said: "I think people think he's done a pretty good job as a local MP, but if he lost his seat it'd probably be more because of the national picture than about here."
That view is shared by several of the town’s residents, who spoke to RTÉ’s Morning Ireland.
"He’s a lovely MP, but I can’t stand the Conservative government," said one woman in her 60s, who did not want to be identified.
Tony, who has lived in the town for 35 years, said the Tories have "made a mess of it".
"I think everybody is looking for change", hair salon operator Jane Taylor said.
But she is more circumspect when it comes to where she feels the Conservatives went wrong.
"I feel with the Tory government, they had to get through Brexit - which was their own doing - then they had to get through Covid, and then there are wars going on at the moment.
"So economically, I don't think we're run by our own country anymore. I think we're run by the world," Ms Taylor said.
However, Mr Shapps is still the clear favourite for local shop owner, Sachin Patel.
He acknowledges the problems facing the Conservatives on a national scale, but said Mr Shapps "helped me get the licence for the post office in my shop. A good local MP."
Despite that, being a "good local MP" is unlikely to stem a crumbling "blue wall".
Across the south of England, senior Tories are at risk in traditional Conservative strongholds.
The Liberal Democrats are another party hoping to make gains in Tory heartlands.
'True blue'
Chief among their targets are Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s seat in Surrey and former prime minister Boris Johnson’s old constituency in Henley.
These are areas which - until recently - would have been considered "true blue".
"It's not looking great for the Conservatives," said Dr Ben Nutt, a lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the University of Hertfordshire.
"They're not going to be completely annihilated in terms of losing every seat, but they're going to lose seats that they have historically held easily."
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He pointed to recent by-elections as an indicator of how drastically some seats may swing.
Dr Nutt said the loss of a seat like Welwyn Hatfield would likely further contribute to the identity crisis within the Conservative party.
"It would indicate that potentially the populist turn we've seen within the Conservative Party, the likes of (Jacob) Rees-Mogg and Suella Braverman isn't having the impact that they would hope it would have in these kind of areas."
"(The party) needs those much more moderate conservatives in the centre-right ground to hold things together."
He added that Reform UK "wouldn't split the party" but it will "take more MPs (from the Conservatives) - certainly if they start to win seats at the election".
'Protest vote'
However, while political analysts said that Reform UK is unlikely to be a contender in the seat of Welwyn Hatfield, there is no doubt the party is cutting through for some people.
Frank, a 69-year-old semi-retired landscaper, has already cast his postal vote for Reform UK.
"People will probably say it’s a wasted vote because they won’t get in at all. But I think the country's actually gone really downhill."
When asked what has caused the UK to decline, he cited immigration and prices.
"It's just endless. People are struggling. All they want is your votes. They promise this, promise that. I’ve been listening to this for 50 years. I’m just fed up."
Susan McDonald, whose parents hailed from Mayo and Limerick, is also considering voting for Reform.
"I don't feel like voting for Labour, I don't feel like voting Conservative. So I’m actually thinking of voting Reform, more as a protest vote than anything else."
