When it's greeted as good news that our bond rates are below 9% then you know you're in trouble. Right now it's hard to find a mainstream economist who doesn't believe - even though they may not say it publicly - that the country is headed for an EU/IMF bailout. It's interesting how the tone has changed, A few weeks ago the suggestion that Ireland would need a bailout was portrayed by officialdom as utterly unthinkable. Now - while the official line is still that it's not going to happen - the tone has moved towards suggesting that it wouldn't be such a big deal really even if it did happen.
Prof Morgan Kelly scared everyone last Monday with his view that we wouldn't be able to meet even the lower borrowing costs demanded by the EU/IMF (although no one else has gone that far in public). The Taoiseach himself added to the drama in the Dail by declaring that if the budget is not passed then the country could run out of money by July and leave us having to spend no more than our total tax intake of around 31bn euro - with the implication that we wouldn't be able to borrow from anyone.
We really are in uncharted territory and we'll be trying to make sense of it all with a panel that includes Megan Greene who follows Ireland for the Economist Intelligence Unit, TCD's Constantin Gurdgiev and Sean Murphy of Chambers Ireland who urges us not to exaggerate the country's difficulties and to recognise that there is still a great deal of business being done and quite a few healthy economic indicators to point to.
We'll also have all six candidates in the Donegal South West by election live in studio. It's been said that this is one of the most crucial by-elections ever and with the Dail arithmetic so tight and a crucial budget breathing down our necks there's quite a bit of justification in saying that. TDs are elected as national legislators and not local councillors so we'll be trying to get their answers to the big national issues given that their vote on the budget and the four-year plan could have a crucial bearing on the country's future.
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