RTÉ Europe Correspondent Tony Connelly reports from Brussels on calls for the Lisbon Treaty to be reopened
Just over a year after Irish voters approved the Lisbon Treaty, the question of it being re-opened will haunt the summit of EU leaders in Brussels.
Ostensibly they will endorse the report of Herman Van Rompuy on how economic governance across the eurozone needs to be strengthened in order to avoid a repeat of the Greek debt crisis.
As President of the European Council, Mr Van Rompuy, has been working since May with a taskforce comprised of the European Central Bank and eurozone finance ministers (in parallel with the European Commission) on how to avoid a Greek-style crisis ever happening again.
The measures include greater scrutiny of member states’ finances, early dissuasive warnings and tough sanctions against offenders.
But it is Germany’s views on the €750bn EU/IMF bailout fund, and whether or not member states’ voting rights could be suspended in the event of repeated breaches of the rules, which has brought the Lisbon Treaty back in to the frame, to the horror of some governments.
The bailout fund (European Financial Stabilisation Fund) was agreed at the 11th hour in May at the height of the Greek debt crisis. It was a temporary measure to save the euro from collapse and to reassure the markets about the single currency’s political support. It is due to expire in 2013.
Berlin is now insistent that the bailout fund needs to be put on a permanent and sound legal footing, partly because it fears the German constitutional court will rule that the fund breaches article 125 of the Lisbon Treaty, namely the no bailout clause.
Germany also wants the EU to be able to suspend a country’s voting rights if it repeatedly breaches deficit and debt rules. If that option and the bailout fund both require a re-opening of the Lisbon Treaty, says Berlin, then so be it.
Crucially, at a meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel at the French city of Deauville, President Nicolas Sarkozy agreed with the possibility of treaty change.
In exchange, France won a concession from Germany that would soften the impact of any new sanctions against deficit and debt offenders.
The Deauville deal between Paris and Berlin triggered a noisy reaction. The German press was angered at an apparent climb down by Merkel on the question of sanctions. The deal envisaged a six-month grace period for deficit offenders to get their house in order before sanctions apply. Germany - and the ECB - had argued all along for sanctions to be quasi-automatic.
The European Parliament, too, was up in arms at the deal. Post-Lisbon, it has a greater say on how economic affairs are dealt with at EU level, although there is no guarantee that the parliament will speak with one voice on sanctions or on the bailout fund.
Among member states there is widespread scepticism about treaty change and/or any suspension of voting rights. Portugal, for a start, has declared itself downright opposed to the latter.
For its part, the Irish Government is prepared to listen to Germany’s concerns on the bailout fund and on how to discourage damaging breaches of the rules which govern the euro, and to see how far Germany and France are prepared to go.
But Ireland wants any treaty change – if it comes to it – to be limited in scope.
The reality is that any alteration which changes the competence of the EU, or which changes the balance between the Lisbon Treaty and the Irish constitution, will require a referendum.
There may be options to strengthen the rules to Germany’s satisfaction through a future accession treaty, say that of Croatia, for example. Any changes to the treaty, too, could be subtle or nuanced (the European Council’s lawyers are expected to be working intensely to see what options are available).
But any substantive reopening of Lisbon will be a Pandora’s box for many member states. Even though the bailout fund and the new economic governance regime will only apply to the 16-member eurozone, British Prime Minister David Cameron has vowed that any change which transfers competences to Brussels will trigger a UK referendum (a withdrawal of voting rights could, legally, do just that).
In advance of the summit member states appear prepared to listen to German concerns - anything agreed on treaty change will require unanimity - but many feel this is the worst possible time to be putting big issues before an electorate through referenda, or even before parliaments.
With street demonstrations, anti-immigrant sentiment and populist political parties on the rise, amid draconian and unpopular austerity measures, opening up the year-old treaty could be politically very fraught indeed.
Tony Connelly
