There are a lot of numbers going around about the vaccine roll-out. But there's one to keep in mind: 4.5 million.
That’s the number of doses that need to be administered in Ireland by the end of June if the Government’s vaccine targets are to be met.
The targets were set on the assumption that the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine was available for use for all, and the 4.5 million number is based on the same assumption.
If the Johnson & Johnson advice changes, the Government may be forced to provide two-dose vaccines instead, pushing up the total doses needed to achieve the targets.
But, for now, the 4.5 million number is the one to keep in mind.
Rounded to the decimal point, 4.5 million doses would give 82% of adults one dose of a vaccine, and see 55% of adults fully vaccinated. Nearly every person over 30 years old would be at least partially protected.
So is the Government on track to reach those goals? If not, is there any realistic chance we could get back on track?
Here are the numbers.
The current situation
So far, 1.25 million doses have been administered. Some 9.7% of adults are fully vaccinated, and 23.4% have received one dose. About 140,000 doses are being administered every week. On average, 20,000 doses are being given each day.
These numbers, up to and including 20 April, are based on the Government’s official data dashboard. Other data is published daily by the HSE in PDF form.
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There are 71 days between 20 April and 30 June. To achieve the 4.5 million dose target, the roll-out needs to average 46,500 doses daily. That’s 325,000 doses weekly.
To put it another way, the current pace needs to double, and then accelerate again.
It’s undoubtedly a big challenge, but within the numbers there remains some cause for optimism.
Two weeks ago, analysis by Prime Time estimated that the roll-out was two-and-a-half weeks behind schedule, but that it was possible for it to quickly get back on track if it ramped up, as everyone expected it to.
Things certainly didn’t go as planned in the meantime. NIAC advice limiting the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine triggered a re-organisation of the roll-out plan, and then a similar issue arose with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
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That unquestionably had an impact on the roll-out, but it appears it’ll be a short-term one.
The AstraZeneca advice, which restricted the vaccine to over-60s, was issued on 12 April. Immediately following this, the roll-out slowed considerably. But it has since picked up again.
Ten days on, the numbers are back to where they were, and maybe even slightly higher than, before the limits were placed on AstraZeneca.
To use a motoring metaphor, the roll-out was due to go up a gear. It didn’t, but it hasn’t massively slowed down either, despite the complications.
It appears we are still two-and-a-half weeks behind where we should be.
Can we catch up?
If the roll-out were on track, we would be hoping to see around 250,000 doses administered in a single seven-day period by the end of this month. Prime Time’s analysis indicates it will happen before 14 May, assuming no other significant short-term problems arise.
Based on current projections and expected deliveries, there should be more than enough supply to achieve it.
A delivery of 191,000 Pfizer doses is due in the seven days after 26 April. Some 165,000 AstraZeneca doses are set to arrive on 3 May. Around the same date, Pfizer is due to send a further 182,000 doses.
Allowing time for the HSE to distribute and administer these doses, the 250,000 number should be achieved – assuming the largely untested system is as prepared as we were promised – before 16 May.
If deliveries of the vaccine occur on schedule, and they don’t hit the 250,000 number within two weeks, it’ll raise questions about the efficiency of the roll-out.
For months, politicians and officials have consistently said that the system was capable of administering a quarter of a million doses a week, once the supply allowed. There should be sufficient supply for it very soon, so let’s hope they’re right.
In May, the weekly supply of vaccines is projected to consistently exceed 350,000. Two million doses are expected in June.
Though the time available to catch up is narrowing, on the numbers alone, the Government’s targets are still viable.
But we’re still behind schedule. To catch up, three key things need to happen.
Three things needed to meet the targets
Firstly, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine has to remain available for the vast majority of people within the cohorts for which it was intended. It was due to be administered in large part to people whose lifestyle meant they were less likely to attend for a second dose, including homeless people.
Whether age or gender limitations are put on the use of this vaccine will depend largely on NIAC.
If it can’t be used as intended, two doses of another vaccine will be needed to fill the gap. That would shift the number of doses needed to reach the Government target from 4.5 million up to potentially 5.1 million. Significant limitations on J&J would make achieving the June targets almost impossible.
Secondly, deliveries need to occur in line with expectations. Neither the Government nor the HSE has much control over that.
Remember the 4.5 million dose number? In the wake of an earlier Prime Time analysis of the vaccine roll-out, Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly published expected deliveries from each vaccine manufacturer across April, May and June. They allow us to make a good estimate for when the 4.5 millionth dose will land in the country.
If the projected deliveries arrive evenly across the weeks of June, it would land in the second or third week of the month. That would leave time for the HSE to administer it before the end of the month, thus achieving the targets.
However, if the scheduled June deliveries are heavily backloaded to the last week of the month, there may not be time to administer the 4.5 millionth dose before 30 June, meaning the Government would miss the target by about a week.
If deliveries scheduled for June are delayed, that’s a bigger problem.
Thirdly, and most crucially, the roll-out needs to keep pace with deliveries. Recently, HSE Chief Executive Paul Reid has been at pains to emphasise how around 95% of the available doses that arrive in the country are administered within seven days.
At the moment, based on European Centre for Disease Control delivery numbers, 94% of Pfizer doses that have been delivered have been administered, but the overall number is being pulled down to 80%, since only 64% of AstraZeneca doses have been used.
As the roll-out is moving through the 60-69 age cohort, which is all AstraZeneca, this number should increase quickly. It needs to.
Once it gets back on course, we would need to be consistently administering 90% of the available doses, even as 450,000 doses a week land in the country in June.
The roll-out task force has said the system has the capacity to administer more than 500,000 doses a week. It’s looking more and more likely that at some point, they’re going to need to prove it.
