Updated at 2:45pm on 7 April, following the release of official Government delivery forecasts.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin set out the aims of the vaccine roll-out during one of those pandemic-era national addresses we've become all too familiar with. It was 23 February, and he needed to garner public support for extending Level 5 restrictions. 

By the end of June, he said, at least 55% of adults should be fully vaccinated. Some 82% should have received their first jab.

He also said that 1.25 million doses would have been administered by 31 March. 

If it wasn’t clear before he spoke, it certainly was after: the Government views vaccination as the way out of the pandemic.

But the roll-out has been plagued by issues, from delayed AstraZeneca shipments to the Beacon Hospital debacle. 

Where are we now? And can we still meet the Taoiseach’s aims for June?

Prime Time has been running the numbers. Here’s what we’ve found.

Off track, but how far?

Let’s start by looking at the aim for 31 March. The Taoiseach said he expected 1.25 million doses to be in people’s arms by then, but that didn’t happen. Some 865,460 had been completed - meaning we missed the target by more than 380,000 doses.

If you take the current pace of the roll-out and simply project it forward in time, we’re set to hit 1.25m doses around 18 April, two-and-a-half weeks behind schedule.

However, the pace of the roll-out has been accelerating week-on-week, and the HSE says that the trend is set to continue.

Currently, about 130,000 doses are being administered every seven days. That’s up from around 85,000 in early March. 

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Over the next week, it should hit 150,000. The long-awaited "ramp up" does appear to be materialising. A more optimistic estimate would put the delay at under two weeks.

But the pace needs to accelerate further if we are to meet the 30 June targets - and the scale and timing of the deliveries of the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine will be crucial. 

The first batch is expected around 19 April, and 600,000 doses are due to be delivered here before the end of June. 

Assuming they are delivered in full, that would mean Ireland will need to administer around 3.5 million doses between 1 April and 30 June to meet the Taoiseach’s June target - and bring the roll-out fully back on schedule.

There are many factors at play, but, on the face of it, this appears possible.

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What’s needed to hit the targets?

In recent weeks, Government ministers have regularly referred to the roll-out "averaging one million doses a month for April, May and June". That’s 250,000 doses a week. 

But to hit the 3.5 million target, the average number of doses administered each week will actually need to be 271,000 in April, May and June.

Already, it’s clear that we will miss this by around 100,000 doses each week in the first half of this month.

That puts the roll-out in arrears: the worse we do in the earlier weeks, the more doses we will need to administer later on. 

If we managed 180,000 doses a week in April, we could still meet the June target if we administered 300,000 in May, and 410,000 in June.

And an average of 180,000 doses a week does appear to be possible for April: at a recent technical briefing, Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly told Prime Time he expects the country to administer 250,000 doses a week by the end of the month. 

That’s a number worth watching. If we do it by late April, then the roll-out would appear to be broadly on track. 

According to the head of the vaccine task force, Prof Brian MacCraith, it will also be possible to administer 410,000 doses in June. 

In a recent interview with The Business Post, he indicated that as many as 560,000 doses a week were doable under the implementation plan. 

What about supply?

Senior Government figures have spoken about the number of doses we expect to receive each month.

But, arguing that the projections are too volatile to publish, they refused to release data about what’s expected from which vaccine manufacturer in a given month. That made it hard to assess the reliability of Ireland’s supply.

However, following the broadcast of this analysis on Prime Time on 6 April, and publication of this piece, Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly published official forecasts on 7 April.

Prime Time had used data from Sweden's public health authority, calibrated to Ireland's population size, to estimate vaccine deliveries over the coming months. The official release of the forecasts of deliveries confirms the country can expect between 900,000 and one million doses this month, around 1.2 million doses next month, and 1.8 million in June.

Ireland’s vaccine delivery expectations

Here’s how they break down by manufacturer:

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The Minister and other Government figures have noted that delivery forecasts change regularly, sometimes at less than 12 hours notice.

Johnson & Johnson delivery hopes

The breakdown published by the minister confirms that a huge number of Johnson & Johnson doses are expected to arrive in the weeks running up to the 30 June target date.

Of the approximately 600,000 due over the next three months, more than two thirds are expected in June alone.

While they’re only 600,000 doses from about four million, if the bulk of the Johnson & Johnson delivery gets pushed back into July, the June targets will be very tricky to meet. 

This is almost entirely because every dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine that doesn’t arrive on time would have to be covered by two doses of another vaccine. 

But those two doses must be separated by a period of between four and twelve weeks. That pushes the point at which people move into the "fully vaccinated" column back by up to three months, which would make meeting the June target difficult.

The maths works like this: 55% of the adult population being fully vaccinated is approximately two million people. 

So far, 250,000 people have been fully protected. That leaves 1.75 million to do before the end of June. 

We’re relying on Johnson & Johnson to cover one third of that. If the large June deliveries materialise, the percentage of the population moving into the fully vaccinated column will go into overdrive that month.

It’s hard to tell how reliable Johnson & Johnson will be with their deliveries. It was only authorised for use by the European Medicines Agency in March, and the first batch hasn’t arrived yet.

For now, health officials say there’s been nothing to indicate that we could run into AstraZeneca-like supply issues with Johnson & Johnson. Let’s hope it stays that way.

Reliability of AstraZeneca

Pfizer will clearly remain the backbone of our supply for some time to come, but when examined by percentage breakdown, it's clear AstraZeneca will also be key to the equation.

Given how often that company has recently disappointed with deliveries, you’d be forgiven for worrying about it being responsible for almost a quarter of all doses over the three month period.

As it stands, the European Commission is expecting approximately 100 million doses from AstraZeneca before 30 June. Originally, 300 million doses were due.

Regular downward revisions of the projections have resulted in an enormous row between the company and the Commission.

European leaders recently stepped in, demanding AstraZeneca do more to meet the original expectation. However, at the same time, ministers here are expressing caution about how reliable even the current projections are.

If you look at their record, you’d expect AstraZeneca to disappoint on deliveries. But if you look at their plans and the political demands from Europe, you could actually see more than the currently projected number arriving. 

A recent approval for the use of a manufacturing plant in the Netherlands may unlock more doses for use in Europe, but they also could be overpromising again. It’s hard to know what will happen, but if they deliver as currently projected, the June targets are certainly possible.

Other deliveries

Even if AstraZeneca can’t be relied upon, there may still be hope. The aim of 82% of adults having had one dose and 55% fully vaccinated is based on only the use of the four currently authorised vaccines. In the coming weeks, it’s possible others will become available.

For more than a month, the European Medicines Agency has been conducting rolling reviews of the Curevac, Novavax and Sputnik V vaccines, from Germany, the US, and Russia, respectively. 

Some may well be available for use soon.

The Swedish health authority is even projecting Curevac will begin deliveries in June. While that vaccine is not included in this analysis, if the Swedes are correct, 65,000 Curevac doses would also arrive in Ireland that month.

Assuming the supply comes on stream as projected, and the system operates as officials have promised, the targets seem viable.

However, the system has not yet come under much strain. What this breakdown tells us is that the big test is coming in June.