In the Brexit heartlands of eastern and north eastern England, Jeremy Corbyn is toxic. He is seen as a London elitist with odd ideas.
That should make it easier for the Conservatives, or even the Brexit party, to win one of the seats in Hull, the industrial centre.
But the polls show the Labour candidates - all of whom support remaining in the EU - romping home. 'Hang on, I thought this was meant to be the Brexit election?', I hear you say?
Well, it is. But Brexit is not the only issue that British people care about - and many feel it would take a political earthquake even bigger than the Brexit referendum to unseat Labour in parts of the north.
And then there’s the Midlands. In Newcastle-under-Lyme, in the Potteries, Corbyn is also toxic to many and there is a long-standing tradition of voting for Labour, all the way back to 1919 when Josiah Wedgewood (he of the Delph family) defected from the Liberals to Labour.
So far, so like Hull. But the expectation now is that Labour may lose Newcastle-under-Lyme. The latest poll predicts this to be a relatively comfortable Conservative seat. How? Why?
Newcastle-under-Lyme has become even more 'Brexity’ since the referendum and their Labour MP was strongly Remain. That appears to have really annoyed people. I lost count of the number of people who told me it was time to get out of the EU.
The decline of manufacturing and the rise of the 'warehousing' industry may have something to do with it. Think zero hours contracts and low pay. Instead of blaming the government for all of this, people in the Potteries are punishing their incumbent MPs. Go figure.
And then there’s the candidate for Labour, Carl Greatbatch. He has a great personal story but he is very much on the Corbynista wing of the party.
Many people I spoke to in the city just find all of the promises and pledges of Labour too fanciful. Nationalise the railways, water companies, confiscate shares in companies, abolish universal credit...the list goes on. Many former Labour voters we met thought it completely unrealistic.
Down south the fight is different. Many of these constituencies are the mirror image of their northern cousins. While they are poor, London is rich. While they voted for Brexit, London voted to Remain.
In the City of Westminister/City of London constituency, the fight is on the Remain side of the argument. This is the richest place in Europe. Here incomes are over €150,000 on average and they believe they have much to lose from exiting the EU.
The Conservative appeal here is to traditional Tory values, the small state, low taxation and, of course, the Brexit mantra 'get it done'. But Chuka Umunna, the Liberal Democrat candidate, is on hand to make a different offer.
To disillusioned Tories, disgusted by the nationalist tone in that party, he says: "Lend me your vote and I'll prevent Brexit". To Labour voters he says: "Corbyn is an extremist you can’t trust. Rely on me."
It’s a strategy that may work for the Lib Dems in certain constituencies, but the polling evidence is that it is not working across the country so far.
The evidence of the election campaign so far is that this is less like a national vote than ever before. Scotland is different. The North-East is different, as is the midlands and London is a world onto itself.
Financial Times columnist and deputy editor, Miranda Green, believes this election is very difficult to predict. Traditional loyalties to party have been upended because of Brexit and this makes previously safe Tory seats (like Westminster/London) and old-school Labour ones (like Newcastle-under-Lyme) competitive.
Which brings us back to the question at the beginning of this piece: who do I think will win? Well it could be a strong Conservative majority or another hung parliament. In other words...I haven’t got the foggiest, but I’ll be watching this election unfold with enormous interest.