A new opinion poll suggests a lead for Fine Gael's Sean Kyne in the forthcoming Galway West Dáil bye-election.
The Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A poll suggests the former government chief whip is the early front-runner on 17% of the vote, followed closely by Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas on 16%.
The poll indicates a strong showing by Labour Galway City Councillor Helen Ogbu on 12% of the vote - well ahead of her party's national poll standing.
When second preferences are factored in, the poll still predicts a victory for Mr Kyne.
The Labour Party has written to RTÉ Director General Kevin Bakhurst seeking a place for Ms Ogbu in upcoming TV debates on Six One News and The Week in Politics from Galway West.
Labour director of elections George Lawlor wrote that based on the TG4 Irish Times poll Ms Ogbu is now the leading candidate on the left in the constituency.
As such, he said, she should be included on live debate panels in both programmes over the coming days.
The poll was carried out via telephone interviews between 1 and 5 May, among a random sample of 530 eligible voters. The estimated margin of error is around plus or minus 4%.
According to the poll, the three front runners are ahead of a group of six candidates who are separated by just three percentage points. In a field of 17 candidates, this suggests a lot is still to play for over two weeks out from polling.
The chasing group of six includes Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats (9%), Fianna Fáil's Cillian Keane (8%), Independent Mike Cubbard (7%), Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan (7%), Niall Murphy of the Green Party (6%) and Independent Thomas Welby (6%).
The bye-election is being held to fill the seat vacated by President Catherine Connolly. Her former campaign manager Sheila Garrity is on just 3% in this poll - suggesting the President's former vote may have scattered in different directions, including to her former party of Labour.
Second preferences break down as Mr Kyne 15%, Mr Welby 14%, Ms Ogbu 11%, Mr Keane 9%, Mr Lohan 9%, Ms Nic Fhionnlaoich 9%, Mr Thomas 7%, Cubbard 6%.
Pobalbhreith TG4 / The Irish Times ar thoghcheantar Ghaillimh Thiar: na príomhpointí ag Eibhlín Ní Choistealbha pic.twitter.com/Ta3134XOwy
— Nuacht TG4 (@NuachtTG4) May 7, 2026
In an overall sense, if Mr Kyne's 17% were to be replicated on polling day, it would be below the average winning first preference in all bye-elections held since the 1990s of 30%.
However, this bye-election appears noteworthy for the fragmented nature of the field compared to others. Fine Gael was also the most popular party in Galway West in the 2024 General Election and Mr Kyne benefits from name recognition.
Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas has seen his vote increase since the 2024 general election by 6.6 percentage pionts.
However like his general election campaign, Mr Thomas is relatively weaker in Galway city, on 10% and trailing Mr Kyne (16%) and Ms Ogbu (15%). A strong performance in Galway city is almost essential to winning Galway West. He will still hope his role in the recent fuel protests will have an impact at the ballot boxes.
The poll also indicates a halving of the Fianna Fáil vote in Galway West since the last general election - from 16.8% to 8%.
Labour will be bouyed by the showing of their candidate in this poll and will hope it will give Ms Ogbu momentum to reclaim a seat long held by former president Michael D Higgins.
However, several other left-leaning candidates will also feel they are in the mix, based on the indications in this poll, which will test the Vote Left Transfer Left pact in the final two weeks of campaigning in Galway West.
A third of voters said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who spoke Irish.
When asked of the influence of the recent fuel protests on their vote, 35% of voters said it had "a lot" of influence, 32% said somewhat, and 32% not at all. 67% of those polled said they were dissatisfied with the Government's handling of the fuel protests.
When asked for their most important issue in this bye-election, 27% said roads/Galway by-pass, 26% said housing, 11% cost of living and 5% said fuel prices.
