After weeks of campaigning, today we will find out who Ireland's newest TD will be.
Here are five things to look out for as the Dublin Bay South by-election count takes place.
Humphreys' Hunch
This constituency is known for the precision of its tallies, with well-established and well organised co-operation between the main parties. Because of Covid restrictions, just around 45 tally people are being allowed in to the count centre – a quarter of what would usually be there. There will be more vote counters than usual - 70 of them working in pods of two. They will start counting boxes from the 26 polling centres from 9am.
This means that where there would normally be two tally watchers per counter, this time there will be just one. So instead of the usual pinch of salt that's handy when assessing tallies, take a larger dollop.
That being said, the tallies will start coming in not long after counting begins. Former TD for the constituency, and now Labour's National Organiser, Kevin Humphreys, is usually the man to watch. His knowledge of the constituency and skills of psephology have earned him legendary status among political nerds in the RDS, and he has been known to call it as early as 9.30am.
But with additional rules around the count centre and fewer eyes and ears on the floor, will Covid put paid to even this count day tradition?
The North-Clondalkin Strategy
There's a long way between Ronanstown and Ranelagh. But a big talking point among canvassers in the final week of this campaign has been on whether Sinn Féin could pull off its strategy from the 2019 Dublin Mid-West by-election, in Dublin Bay South.
Back then, Mark Ward was the surprise winner in a contest that had been billed as a battle between the favourite, Fine Gael's Emer Higgins and the Independent candidate Paul Gogarty.
A major campaign on the ground got the Sinn Féin votes out in working class parts of the constituency with traditionally low turnout. Sinn Féin canvassers flooded the area of North Clondalkin for the 11 days before polling. With an overall low turnout of 26.6% on the day, a higher turnout where it was needed tipped the balance in favour of Ward.
The mastermind of that strategy was none other than Eoin Ó Broin – whose partner, Lynn Boylan is contesting Dublin Bay South. Sinn Féin has certainly had a big presence in the working class pockets of Dublin Bay South, even reportedly making a donation towards the sound system for the regular bingo sessions in the Pearse Flats. Could a repeat of the North Clondalkin Strategy put Boylan in contention to hit the jackpot?
No such thing as bad press
Conversely, a higher turnout in the more affluent areas will be good news for Fine Gael. Their worry all along was that, in an election of low consequence and particularly with Sinn Féin not posing as big a challenge as initially appeared to be the case, their supporters may not be all too motivated to make their way to the local polling station.
Until, that is, an opinion piece appeared in the Irish Times about their candidate, James Geoghegan, with the headline: "You couldn't make him up". Not since Kate O'Connell confessed to Claire Byrne on RTÉ Radio that someone had threatened to present her with a sod of turf at a Fine Gael meeting, has there been such a talking point around the campaign.
The piece made reference to Geoghegan's "intense privilege" and "clichéd" South-side accent – much to the chagrin of the party grassroots. The reaction, along with a counterbalancing piece from Minister Simon Harris the following day, and former taoiseach John Bruton rowing in on the letters pages of the Irish Times might have provided the motivation the party were looking for.
In fact, it's Labour who felt it had most to lose from the newspaper article, with some strategists bemoaning that they would have been happier heading into today had it never appeared.
Transfers between Government parties
If it does come down to a battle between Labour and Fine Gael, then the outcome of this by-election might well depend on the pattern of transfers. Geoghegan would need to top the poll on the first count with a few percentage points to spare, if he is to take the seat.
Fine Gael has called for voters to transfer to Fianna Fáil and the Greens in the hope of generating some transfers for its own candidate. Such a pact between coalition partners is not being reciprocated, publicly at least. But Fine Gael hopes (and says it's picking this up on the doors) that there will be transfers from its coalition partners.
Either way, there might be slim enough pickings in Fianna Fáil transfers. Those of the Green Party candidate, Claire Byrne, will be ones to watch. Geoghegan's camp believes it can do well here, with one canvasser quipping that Greens in this constituency tend to be "blue shirts on bikes".
But Labour is also staking claim to Byrne's transfers. If more than half go Bacik's way then she could be the one pedalling home victorious.
An early finish or late evening?
Speaking of which, the expectation is that it will all be done and dusted by 7pm or 8pm in the evening – although turnout, transfers and the unprecedented nature of a count taking place under Covid rules make the timing hard to predict.
What then for the hundreds of volunteers who have been putting in the hard yards for their respective parties or candidates, particularly during Tuesday's monsoon rain? They won't even get their day out in the RDS, as numbers will be severely restricted.
But not to worry. Updates of the count will be provided on RTÉ Radio, online and news bulletins throughout the day. And for those who will really miss the thrill of the count centre, it will be livestreamed throughout the day on dublincityreturningofficer.com.
Just think of it as a warm-up for the Euro 2020 Final on Sunday night.
