Voters go to the polls on Friday in the biggest test for parties ahead of the General Election. Politicians from all sides will be battling to win seats in Dublin Mid-West, Dublin Fingal, Cork North-Central and Wexford to fill vacancies following the departure of Frances Fitzgerald (FG), Clare Daly (Independents4Change), Billy Kelleher (FF) and Mick Wallace (Independents4Change). The four big names won seats in the European Parliament in May. Conor Kane looks at the lie of the land in Wexford and assesses who is likely to come out ahead.
Wexford
There are nine candidates contesting this by-election:
Cinnamon Blackmore Solidarity/People Before Profit; Malcolm Byrne Fianna Fáil; Jim Codd Aontú; Karin Dubsky Green Party, Charlie Keddy Independent; George Lawlor Labour Party; Verona Murphy Fine Gael; Johnny Mythen Sinn Féin; Melissa O'Neill Irish Freedom Party.
Reason for by-election
The election of independent Mick Wallace to the European Parliament last May in the Ireland South constituency. A by-election must take place within six months of a TD vacating a Dáil seat.
Interesting because....
Just like next year's General Election on a national basis, this has been seen as a head-to-head between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, while the recent travails and apologies of Fine Gael's Verona "local and vocal" Murphy have added an edge to the race.
Lie of the land
A lot of Co Wexford is becoming commuter territory for the capital, particularly with the transformation of the roads network in recent years and the constituency stretches from Gorey and Bunclody to the north down to Rosslare Harbour in the very southeast, over to Hook Head at the mouth of Waterford Harbour. The electorate is about 109,000.
Election issues
They are universal: housing, jobs, transport, healthcare. The supply of housing, particularly in the rental market, is a hot topic in the towns while homelessness is a creeping reality, albeit Wexford County Council are proactively taking steps to alleviate that problem. Healthcare, including the availability of mental health services, is a running sore in Wexford just like many counties, while a better rail link to Dublin with a faster and more frequent service along the east coast is also on the wish-list.
Electoral certainties (insofar as they exist)
Verona Murphy's vote will be seized on by all sides as a measure of the voters' opinions on immigration, even if voters' reasons for voting are more subtle than being based on one issue.
Likely to be elected
The pace-setters have long been seen as Malcolm Byrne of Fianna Fáil and Verona Murphy of Fine Gael, with Byrne the favourite at this point, although Labour's George Lawlor should poll well.
Electoral battle
At the local elections earlier this year, Fianna Fáil won just over 29% of the vote with Fine Gael on 26% and if that's replicated on Friday it could be a close-run thing when the counting starts.
Independents took a 26.7% share in May but, technically, there's only one independent in this race and that's serial candidate Charlie Keddy who has a history of standing in different constituencies and is unlikely to survive the first count. Cinnamon Blackmore fared okay in the local elections without taking a seat while Melissa O'Neill shouldn't trouble the later counts on Saturday.
Karin Dubsky has a fine record of environmental campaigning and is well-known for her long-standing Coastwatch work but it will hardly be enough to put her in contention.
The same could be said for Aontú's Jim Codd - "give Codd the nod" as his posters say - who has been a teacher and activist for years but may not have the profile to make a big impact and was elected to Wexford County Council on the eighth count in May. Sinn Féin's Johnny Mythen came within 16 votes of a Dáil seat in the 2016 general election but then lost his council seat six months ago. So, go figure.
George Lawlor of the Labour Party is the current mayor of Wexford Borough District and took nearly two quotas in the May locals, so he's sure to do well around the county town. His profile elsewhere in the constituency may scupper his chances, however, although Wexford has returned Brendan Howlin to the Dáil at eight successive elections so the party has a solid core vote.
That leaves the perceived big guns: Malcolm Byrne also won almost two quotas in May in the Gorey electoral district and has been building his political base for years, as head of communications with the Higher Education Authority and also a former youth and student leader along with his local electoral profile. He received 6,115 first-preferences in the 2016 general election and hung on until count 12 but James Browne ultimately took the only Fianna Fáil seat. With the party fully behind him this time he'll hope to improve on that score.
Verona Murphy is a first-time political candidate, chosen by party HQ as a successful lobbyist with the Irish Road Haulage Association. Baptism of fire wouldn't begin to describe the last week and a half in terms of repeated controversies which have kept her in the headlines, but the canvassing has continued on the doorsteps and she remains popular and cannot be discounted. She was probably second coming into the campaign and when it all shakes down that may well be her finishing position.
