Voters go to the polls on Friday in the biggest test for parties ahead of the General Election. Politicians from all sides will be battling to win seats in Dublin Mid-West, Dublin Fingal, Cork North-Central and Wexford to fill vacancies following the departure of Frances Fitzgerald (FG), Clare Daly (Independents4Change), Billy Kelleher (FF) and Mick Wallace (Independents4Change). The four big names won seats in the European Parliament in May. Here, Mary Regan looks at the lie of the land in Cork North-Central and assesses who is likely to come out ahead.
Cork North-Central
There are 12 candidates contesting this by-election:
Colm Burke Fine Gael, Martin Condon Independent, James Coughlan Workers' Party, Thomas Gould Sinn Féin, Sinéad Halpin Social Democrats, Charlie Keddy Independent, Thomas Kiely Independent, John Maher Labour Party, Oliver Moran Green Party, Pádraig O'Sullivan Fianna Fáil, Fiona Ryan Solidarity/People-Before-Profit, Finian Toomey Aontú.
Reason for by-election
To fill the seat vacated by Fianna Fáil's Billy Kelleher who was elected to the European Parliament in May. The law states that by-elections must take place within six months of a vacancy arising unless, of course, there is a general election called in the meantime.
Interesting because....
Unlike other constituencies, this one has not witnessed any clangers or uncovered past tweets. It has largely been free of controversy and has not had a game changing moment. It is however, something of a bellwether that could give a good indication of what way the political wind is blowing ahead of the general election expected in a few months' time.
Lie of the land
This is a constituency of contradictions, where the Young Offenders meets the merchant princes. It includes working class communities of the city's north side from Knocknaheeny to Blackpool to Mayfield. It is home to the more affluent suburbs of Sunday's Well and Montenotte and takes in towns and villages from Blackpool to Whitechurch to Glanmire. Split between rural and urban, its geographical and demographical diversity makes it a good microcosm of the country. It also means that turnout on the day and which parts show up in greatest numbers, could have a bearing on the final outcome.
Election issues
With housing, healthcare and anti-social behaviour top of the list of voter concerns, this is as much about the national pictureas it is about the local.
Yes there are local issues. Among them, delays in developing the long-promised northern ring road and upgrading the notorious traffic black spot of the Dunkettle interchange. There are also calls for a promised hospital for Cork city to be built on the north side. These concerns are part of a sense that north of the Lee has been the poor relation when it comes to infrastructural investment.
Complaints about a shortage of gardaí in the city are commonly heard on the campaign trail. Politicians have said that sometimes if they knock on doors after dark, people are afraid to answer such is the degree of trepidation over anti social behaviour. These concerns were exacerbated following a recent gathering of 100 teenagers on St Patrick's Street in the city.
With Cork city witnessing the biggest rise in numbers on the housing waiting list from 4,000 in April to 5,500 in June largely as a result of boundary changes, people here are fearful that they could lose their place on the housing list. Added to this, rents have risen by 10% in the city in the past year, higher than the increase nationally, making housing a huge issue.
Election certainties (insofar as they exist)
Low turnout is widely expected. Parties are not detecting a huge level of engagement. Candidates and their teams fear that those who are aware they are entitled to vote might wonder what's the point when it's likely that whoever is elected will merely be keeping a Dáil seat warm for a few months until the general election.
Likely to be elected
This is widely considered to be Fianna Fáil's to lose. Not holding onto the seat would be a major blow to the party and it's not something that its activists are contemplating. But others are confident that it's not as cut and dry as it might appear. Fine Gael has been putting on a big show while Sinn Féin and Labour are confident that they're in with a shout.
Electoral battle
The home place of Jack Lynch, this constituency and its previous guises of Cork Borough, Cork City and Cork City North West, has been dominated by Fianna Fáil through the ages. Since becoming Cork North-Central in 1981, it had two and at times three Fianna Fáil TDs until 2011, when Billy Kelleher managed to hold onto one seat here. He topped the poll in 2016 and, with 4,000 votes to spare, could have taken in a running mate.
But it also has had bad experiences with by-elections. The loss of a by-election here in 1979 and another one on the same day in neighbouring Cork North East hastened the departure of Lynch as leader of Fianna Fáil.
As a history teacher, this mixed legacy will not be lost on its candidate Pádraig O'Sullivan. If he is feeling the pressure he isn't letting it show. His team are confident, but not taking anything for granted.
Competing against him is Fine Gael's Colm Burke. As former Lord Mayor of Cork and a former MEP, he has name recognition and is expected to perform strongly in the rural part of the constituency.
The Taoiseach joined him on the campaign trail last week and many of the party's big names in the area, like Bernard Allen, have been knocking on doors alongside him. His team believes that a drop in unemployment in the constituency as well as recent school, health centres and housing projects under way give him a good story to tell.
Opponents point to his chequered electoral history. He first ran unsuccessfully here in 1982 and in the by-election of 1994. He was co-opted onto the European Parliament to take Simon Coveney's seat when he was elected to the Dáil but failed to hold on to it when the election came around.
Sinn Féin's Thomas Gould has name recognition in this constituency and has been a passionate advocate of social housing long before it became a big topic. Given that this is a big issue, he could be well placed to reverse some of the party's poor showing in the local and European elections.
His party has rolled out the big names and both Mary Lou McDonald and Pearse Doherty have joined him in shopping centres, public meetings and door-to-door canvasses in the past week. Gould believes it's a two horse race between him and Fianna Fáil. But the party will have to mobilise its working class base if it's to have a good day next week.
There's a strong Labour tradition in Cork North-Central and Kathleen Lynch narrowly lost her seat here in what was a bad election for the party in 2016. But she also knows how to win by-elections having done so in 1994 and has been a constant feature at the side of John Maher. The scout leader who represents a generation change for Labour, has run an energetic and enthusiastic campaign and party figures believe that if he gets ahead of the Green candidate on the first count, transfers could make him an outside possibility. It is an optimistic view but there is certainly a buzz in the party around him and this by-election could leave him well positioned for the general election.
For the Green Party, the local elections were a success story in Cork as with elsewhere in the country. It won 10.3% of first preference votes in the city and went from having no councillors to four. One of those elected was Oliver Moran who is hoping to make the leap to national politics. With a large part of the electorate living in rural areas, it might be a step too far. But he believes the results will show that support for the party has consolidated since May.
Fiona Ryan of Solidarity PBP has been a vocal campaigner on many issues in the area. She was co-opted on to the council to replace Mick Barry when he was elected to the Dáil in 2016 and managed to retain her seat in this year's local elections. She said she wants her campaign to be focused on a number of key issues including housing and in particular mental health services.
Other candidates include Sinéad Halpin of the Social Democrats who picked up 2.3% of first preference votes in the locals and failed to get elected. Similarly with Aontú's Finian Toomey. The Workers' Party candidate James Coughlan last ran in 2016 and is known as vice chairman of the Cork local authority branch of SIPTU.
There are three independents, Charlie Keddy - who is running in all four by-elections, Martin Condon - a father of two and campaigner for drug policy reform, and Thomas Kielty - a stay-at-home dad of three boys who said he wants to look them in the eye some day and tell them that he didn't just sit at the sidelines giving out, he tried to change things.
