Voters go to the polls next Friday in the biggest test for parties ahead of the General Election. Politicians from all sides will be battling to win seats in Dublin Mid-West, Dublin Fingal, Cork North-Central and Wexford to fill vacancies following the departure of Frances Fitzgerald (FG), Clare Daly (Independents4Change), Billy Kelleher (FF) and Mick Wallace (Independents4Change). The four big names won seats in the European Parliament in May. Here, in the first of our analysis pieces, Mícheál Lehane looks at the lie of the land in Dublin Fingal and assesses who is likely to come out ahead.
Dublin Fingal
There are 12 candidates contesting this by-election:
Glenn Brady IND, Tracey Carey Social Democrats, Lorraine Clifford-Lee Fianna Fáil, Ann Graves Sinn Féin, Charlie Keddy Independent, Cormac McKay Independent, Joe O'Brien Green Party, Gemma O'Doherty Independent, Dean Mulligan Independents 4 Change, James Reilly Fine Gael, Peadar O'Kelly Independent, Duncan Smith Labour Party.
Reason for by-election
The election of the high-profile Independents 4 Change TD Clare Daly to the European Parliament last May. The law states that by-elections must take place within six months of a TD vacating their Dáil seat.
Interesting because...
There is a strong possibility of either a Labour or a Green Party win here. Fianna Fáil's chances of taking a second seat in this constituency could have been dented following the highlighting of historic derogatory remarks on social media by the party's candidate.
Lie of the land
This is geographically the largest of the Dublin constituencies encompassing both large urban and rural areas. It runs from Portmarnock to just north of Balbriggan. The electorate is close to 100,000 voters.
Election issues
There is a focus on the need for more housing and extra schools in this area, which has one of the fastest growing populations in the country. It's a similar story when it comes to public transport and health facilities. The most unusual issue relates to seagulls, with Independent candidate Peadar O'Kelly campaigning on the need to reduce their soaring numbers in Balbriggan.
Electoral certainties (insofar as they exist)
No certainty but given the detectable reaction from voters on the canvass trail, turnout may be low and could be some way off the 65% mark recorded in the general election of 2016.
Electoral Battle
Fianna Fáil was the most popular party in this five-seat constituency in 2016 when it won 24% of the vote. That suggests Lorraine Clifford Lee is well placed to top the poll. However, getting over the line and winning the seat is a different matter because there is unlikely to be sufficient Fianna Fáil support to reach the quota on the first count.
The question then arises as to whether those pejorative comments on social media, dating from 2011, will impact on the Fianna Fáil Senator's ability to win preferences from other parties and independents? The verdict is that this may well be the case.
Then the placing of the Greens' Joe O'Brien and Labour's Duncan Smith after the first count could be very telling. Whichever one of these candidates is in the lead at this point will have the early advantage as the lengthy process of distributing the transfers begins.
Labour might have deeper roots here given their showing in the local elections and the fact that it is one of just one seven constituencies where the party won a Dáil seat in 2016. But the Greens have a rich tradition in this area too with former party leader Trevor Sargent wining a Dáil seat at every election from 1992 to 2007.
Labour has councillors across this constituency, however, the Greens, according to a series of opinion polls, look to have maintained the momentum generated in last May's local and European elections.
Another factor that could be influential is the tendency among voters in by-elections to be a little less bound by party loyalty when they cast their ballot in these contests.
It's noteworthy too that back in 2011 Fine Gael's James Reilly topped the poll here. This time it looks as if his elimination and the transfer of his votes will be the decisive factor in this count.
Likely to be elected?
The front runners are Councillor Joe O'Brien of the Green Party, Labour Councillor Duncan Smith and Fianna Fáil Senator Lorraine Clifford Lee.
