Last time around: In 2011, Fianna Fáil won 20 Dáil seats with a 17.45% share of the vote.
Last local elections: The party became the largest party in local government when it won 267 council seats with a 25.3% share of the vote, in the 2014 local elections.
Best case scenario: The party's Director of Elections, Billy Kelleher, has set a target of between 35 and 40 seats as a good result. Forty seats would basically mean winning one in every constituency, with few exceptions such as Cork South-Central where the party has two seats. To win one in most of the 11 Dublin constituencies would be a phenomenal result for the party that was decimated in the capital five years ago. This scenario is also highly unlikely.
Worst case scenario: The party picks up seats across the country but fails to make a significant impact in Dublin where only a handful of seats are won. Fianna Fáil finds itself squeezed from the left by Sinn Féin and others. Floating voters and the as yet "undecided" voters opt for Fine Gael (again) and Fianna Fáil remains at around 20 seats. The worst case scenario would be for the party to come in with less seats than Sinn Féin. Using the 2014 local elections as a gauge this looks extremely unlikely.
Expected outcome: Party leader Micheál Martin has ruled out coalition with Sinn Féin or Fine Gael. This makes for an unprecedented dynamic for Fianna Fáil entering a General Election campaign. The party that has towered over the rest for much of the State's history says it will not go into coalition with either Sinn Féin or Fine Gael on one hand. Yet it has set a target in the region of 40 seats – which would still be 39 seats shy of a government – on the other. If the party can get over 20% in the election it should secure around 35 Dáil seats.
Leader profile: This will be another "defining" election for Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, and while only a return to the party's past glories would make him, this test could have the potential to break him as party leader. Read the full profile here.
