Last time around: In 2011, Fine Gael won 76 Dáil seats with a 36% share of the vote.
Last local elections: In the 2014 local elections, the party won 235 council seats with a 24% share of the vote.
Best case scenario: Election 2016 in Ireland mirrors Election 2015 in the UK. Everyone expected a tight battle but the Conservatives exceeded most people's (and the opinion polls') expectations. Fine Gael's message that it is responsible for the economic recovery resonates with a workforce that is enjoying a little more money in their pockets. Enough people are impressed with the litany of positive economic indicators, good news (and well-timed spin).
Enda Kenny is the first Fine Gael leader to be returned as Taoiseach for a second consecutive term. Fine Gael wins an overall majority as the surge in party support over 12 months continues throughout the campaign. The party's Director of Elections, Brian Hayes, has already said Fine Gael "haven't a chance in hell" of getting an overall majority. Over 60 seats would be a very good election for Fine Gael.
Worst case scenario: The electorate rejects the simplistic "stability versus chaos" narrative. The (other) Troika - the housing crisis, ongoing strains in the health sector and the Irish Water debacle –- haven't gone away. These three issues continue to raise their heads during a lacklustre campaign for a Government that is perceived as arrogant and out of touch as the recovery is seen as "two-tier" and not reaching enough people (particularly outside the M50 and the major cities) quickly enough.
Fine Gael drops back down below the all-important 30% watershed in opinion polls during the campaign, ceding ground to the opposition parties. As 2016 started with loose talk of an overall majority, Fine Gael ends up with below 50 seats.
Expected outcome: Party insiders believe it is possible to win around 35% of the vote in this election. This would give a seat bonus of about 5%, meaning the party could win 40% of the 158 seats – 63-64 seats. This would leave Fine Gael 15 TDs short of the 79 seats needed to form a government. The reality is that most polls have not put Fine Gael above 30% in recent years, so the party is more likely to win 55-60 seats in that scenario.
Leader profile: Enda Kenny, the lucky general, is seeking to confound the critics again. Few watching his early career as a backbencher would have predicted that Enda Kenny could become the first Fine Gael Taoiseach to retain power. Read the full profile here.
By Conor McMorrow, RTÉ's Political Staff
