Then British prime minister Tony Blair's chief of staff Jonathan Powell told Irish officials he believed the "top man" involved in the £26.5m Northern Bank robbery would be "clever enough to avoid getting arrested" weeks after the raid took place.
The correspondence is outlined in new files from January 2005 released as part of the annual transfer of State Papers from government departments to the National Archives of Ireland, which also show Mr Powell feared the DUP "would go on the rampage" when they were told who was believed to be involved.
In December 2004, a gang widely believed to have involved the Provisional IRA took part in a raid on the Northern Bank in Donegall Square West in Belfast, making away with just over £26.5m.
The robbery was one of the biggest in the history of the UK, with its fallout leading to direct rule being temporarily re-imposed in Northern Ireland and serious concerns the peace process could be derailed.
In a 5 January 2005 meeting in Downing Street between senior British and Irish officials weeks after the raid, files show Mr Blair's chief of staff Jonathan Powell said London was "pretty certain it was the IRA".
He said London believed the robbery was undertaken by people "very close to the Sinn Féin leadership", a claim rejected at the time by Sinn Féin, and that while the PSNI hoped to make arrests, Mr Powell said he "feared the 'top man' involved would be clever enough to avoid being arrested".
In response to the remarks, Irish civil servant at the Department of Foreign Affairs, Michael Collins, said Dublin "shared the deep anxiety about the bank robbery" and that it was "almost incomprehensible" planning was taking place while Sinn Féin was involved in power-sharing talks with the DUP.
In the same file, Mr Collins said "the assessment on the Irish side was that the IRA remains a unified organisation; the Northern Bank was not a solo run".
Meanwhile, related files (2025/120/37 and 2025/120/34) also show that during the same period Department of Justice officials privately warned there was "no evidence" the Provisional IRA was "winding down".
The view was outlined in a January 2005 overview note before meetings with Sinn Féin, which said there were "no signs the PIRA [is] winding down its capacity", instead saying "it continued to recruit, though in small numbers; to gather intelligence; and to engage in some relatively low-level training".
It also said the Provisional IRA "continued to engage in significant amounts of smuggling"; continued "to commit paramilitary shootings and assaults although at a lower number than before and without committing murder"; and "continued ... to control republican areas".
It further said there was at the time "no evidence of PIRA agreeing that those it has exiled should be free to return to Northern Ireland", and that there was "no fundamental change in its capacity or its maintenance of a state of preparedness".
The file continued by referencing a large number of violent and criminal incidents to have occurred in the previous months, including one murder and several suspected punishment beatings where young men - including one aged 19 - were shot in both ankles, both hands or had their jaws broken.
The same file also included a series of speaking points for then taoiseach Bertie Ahern before his meeting with senior members of Sinn Féin.
Those notes included references to the Northern Bank robbery, and included a speaking note for Mr Ahern which read: "I would be less than honest if I didn't say that I feel let down and the government feel let down by what has happened in the last few weeks...
"I'm not going to go into all I know about the Northern Bank robbery. [The chief constable of the PSNI] Hugh Orde has attributed the bank robbery to the PIRA and, on the basis of the information I have available to me, I have no reason to dispute that assessment.
"The government doesn't believe for one moment the claims that Hugh Orde is blaming the PIRA because he has some political agenda or he is being got at by 'securoucrats'. That just doesn't make sense.
"I'm not going to go beyond what I said publicly about people knowing about the robbery when the talks were going on."
A separate note in the same file for Mr Ahern also read: "I'm not trying to criminalise the IRA. The fact that the IRA continue to commit crime is what criminalises them."
Among other files (2025/125/161) made public today, as part of the State Papers releases to the National Archives of Ireland, are concerns raised by Irish officials in 2005 that British plans to introduce national ID cards could discriminate against Irish citizens in Northern Ireland and the UK.
The plan, which has now been revived by British Prime Minister Kier Starmer, was officially meant to address concerns over terrorism, illegal migration, identity fraud and to ease public administration decisions.
However, they were never fully rolled out due in part to social justice groups' concerns over how exactly the information would be used.
The release of the files include other references to Northern Ireland, including the clear reluctance from US officials for then US president Bill Clinton to shake Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams's hand at a cross-party function at Queen's University Belfast in late 1995, with that handshake instead taking place on the side of the Falls Road (2025/115/827).
And they also include a previously unknown diplomatic incident after musician Christy Moore was locked in a room and questioned for a number of hours while travelling by boat between Ireland and England (2025/127/1).
Meanwhile, non-Northern Ireland files made public today include the somewhat panicked response to NASA's decision to "ask" Ireland to designate Shannon Airport as an emergency crash landing zone for the space shuttle (2025/124/266) in early 1995.
The correspondence from the US had let Ireland know it was being "asked" to allow the west of Ireland travel hub to become an emergency site, if the space shuttle needed to abort a take-off.
After being told the shuttle "sometimes carried a pay-load" and would have less than 20 seconds to decide whether to aim for Shannon or Zaragoza in Spain in such an eventuality, officials understandably drew up plans for what actions would need to be taken.
Among today's other files are claims from a genealogist in communication with the Irish government that repeated claims visiting US president Bill Clinton had Irish roots were "a fantasy", (2025/166/11; 2025/124/3; 2025/124/5; 2025/124/391), and a belief Princess Diana might try to "upstage" Prince Charles visit to Ireland with one of her own later in the year (2025/124/160).
[Main story based on document 2025/127/90]
