Ireland's ageing population means there will be a sharp rise in demand for both home support hours and long-term residential care beds up to 2040.
That is based on new projections that are being presented at the Nursing Homes Ireland (NHI) annual conference in Kilkenny by the Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI).
It finds that Ireland will require at least an extra 15,000 new nursing home care beds by 2040.
With higher population growth and more nursing homes closing, the number of beds needed could be much higher.
Nursing Homes Ireland has said that unless decisive action is taken, the shortfall will become unmanageable for older people requiring residential care.
Chief Executive of Nursing Homes Ireland Tadhg Daly said that it means that over 1,000 new nursing home beds will be needed each year, every year.
He also said that where the beds are provided is important, because if the new capacity is concentrated only in urban areas, many communities will be left behind.
The Health Service Executive (HSE) said that this year, under its Service Plan, it will open 160 new nursing home beds, plus 455 replacement beds, giving a total of 615 beds.
NHI also said that meeting rising care needs will require a national workforce plan for long-term care.
The organisation is the national representative body for the private and voluntary nursing homes sector, which delivers care to around 27,000 residents, representing more than 84% of all long-term care beds in the country.
The total number of beds in HSE publicly managed and Section 38 health facilities is 6,377.
The Programme for Government promises to build more public nursing home beds and to increase home care hours.
It also commits to introducing a statutory home care scheme, to allow people stay in their own homes for as long as possible.
Minister of State for Older People Kieran O'Donnell told the conference that a long term care capacity plan is being prepared and should be published by the end of the year.
He added that the rates for the Fair Deal scheme will also be increased.
He said that an independent Commission on Older People is due to produce a report soon, including on long term residential care.
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