A trade deal between the European Union and the US could see certain Irish exporters "at the same position" as they are now, an economist has said.
The transatlantic deal, that includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US and significant EU purchases of US energy and military equipment, is seen as bringing welcome clarity for European companies.
However, the baseline tariff of 15% has been criticised by others as a poor outcome compared to the initial European ambition of a zero-for-zero tariff deal.
The deal came after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Scotland for talks with US President Donald Trump to push the hard-fought agreement over the line.
Read more: Is the EU-US trade deal good for Ireland?
Deloitte Ireland Chief Economist Kate English told RTÉ's Behind the Story podcast that a zero-for-zero deal was unlikely to happen.
"I think a zero-for-zero tariff deal was a pipe dream for the EU – we weren't going to get that," she told Fran McNulty and Evelyn O’Rourke.
"What was the alternative if a deal wasn’t reached by August 1st?
"It was tariffs of 30% or more coming from the US - and at that stage, the EU would have had to retaliate".
Ms English said she believes retaliatory tariffs by the EU would have been "catastrophic" for the Irish economy and consumers.
"We would have had a lot more pain from this", she said.
Ms English said while 15% is not where we want to be, there needed to be some form of agreement that allowed businesses to plan.
The Kerrygold example
Ms English said there is also scope to expand the zero-for-zero tariff list, which currently includes things like aircraft, semiconductor equipment and certain agricultural products.
"That [list] is not nailed down, so that is still being discussed," she explained.
"It is also important to remember that we entered into where the average tariff rate between the EU and the US was 4.8% but different sectors would have been experiencing it quite differently.
"I know the common example over the last few days and today is that example of Kerrygold – in place already was a tariff of 16% into the United States."
Ms English said the new 15% rate is not on top of any existing rates.
"What we were understanding from two weeks ago, on July 9th, was if that 10% was agreed it would have been in addition to… whatever rate was your sector," she said.
"So, we’ve kind of ended up - in one respect - at the same position potentially today than what we were looking at two weeks [ago].
"And if some of those negotiations around those zero-for-zero goods that have been picked out as strategic areas for both the US and Europe play true, is it as negative as what we’re saying?"
You can listen to Behind the Story which is available on the RTÉ Radio Player.
You can also find episodes on Apple here, or on Spotify here.
