An opinion poll suggests that the far-right National Rally (RN) could win a snap election in France and claim a third of the vote, roughly equal to its performance in European elections over the weekend.
The first opinion poll published after President Emmanuel Macron's surprise decision to dissolve parliament indicates that Marine Le Pen's anti-immigration, Eurosceptic party could win up to 265 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament.
That would be a threefold increase of its current 88 deputies.
The survey was carried out by research agency Toluna Harris Interactive, and was commissioned by the media firms Challenges, M6 and RTL.
It indicates that Mr Macron's party could be relegated to third place with just 19% of the vote, behind France's left-wing bloc, which is forecast to take 22%.
The French president called the snap elections after his Renaissance party was hammered in yesterday's election.
The first round will take place on 30 June, less than three weeks away, and the run-off will be on 7 July.
Today's poll showed Mr Macron's centrist alliance losing around half its seats, falling from 250 to 125, with left-wing parties taking up to 145 seats.
This evening he expressed confidence that French voters would make the "right choice".
"I am confident in the capacity of the French people to make the right choice for themselves and for future generations," Mr Macron wrote on X.
'Playing with fire'
The election will be France's most fateful legislative vote in decades, its Minister for Finance Bruno Le Maire has warned.
Mr Macron's shock decision amounts to a roll of the dice on his political future and that of France. It immediately sent the euro down, also hitting French stocks and government bonds.
Regardless of the outcome, Emmanuel Macron would remain president for three more years and continue to be in charge of defence and foreign policy.
But if he loses control of the lower house he would lose the power to set the domestic agenda, ranging from economic policy to security and immigration.
"By playing with fire, the head of state could end up by burning himself and dragging the entire country into the fire," French newspaper Le Monde wrote in an editorial.
The early election will also come shortly before the 26 July start of the Paris Olympics, when all eyes will be on France.
A source close to Mr Macron said that the president hopes to mobilise voters who abstained on Sunday.
"We're going for the win," the source insisted. "There's audacity in this decision, risk-taking, which has always been part of our political DNA."
But another source close to Mr Macron said: "I knew this option was on the table, but when it becomes reality it's something else. I didn't sleep last night."
The euro fell 0.5% in early European trade, while Paris blue-chip stocks dropped 2%, led by steep losses in banks BNP Paribas and Societe Generale.
Immigration, cost-of-living, and hauteur
Helmed by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, the RN won about 32% of Sunday's European vote, over double the Macron ticket's 15%, exit polls show, in part thanks to voter anger with Mr Macron's perceived hauteur, and concerns over immigration and the cost of living. The Socialists came within a whisker of Mr Macron with 14%.
Mr Macron's decision arguably aims to make the best of his weak position, reclaiming the initiative and forcing the RN into election mode faster than it would have liked.
"We didn't think it would be immediately after the European elections, even if we wanted it to be," RN deputy chairman Sebastien Chenu said on RTL Radio. "Elections are rarely a gift and in this context, they aren't."
Mr Bardella will be the party's candidate for prime minister, he added.
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Hung parliament?
The result is hard to predict. It is likely to depend on how committed leftist and centre-right voters are to the idea of blocking the far-right from power. Voter turnout on Sunday was about 52%, the interior ministry said.
A widely leaked unofficial poll from the end of last year, the only recent one on snap elections, showed the RN on track to double or triple its score and possibly obtaining a majority, but it dates from December and more recent ones would be needed to have a clear picture.
Mr Macron's Renaissance party currently has 169 lower house politicians out of a total of 577. The RN has 88.
Eurasia Group said the RN was no shoo-in for a majority, predicting a hung parliament as the most likely scenario.
"Faced with another hung parliament, (Macron) will try to form a wider alliance with the centre-right or centre-left, possibly by appointing a prime minister from one of those camps," the think-tank said in a note.
"We foresee a losing struggle for serious domestic reform or strict deficit reduction in the remaining three years of Macron's term," it said, adding: "Emmanuel Macron has taken an enormous gamble, with his own reputation and legacy and the future of France."
The dismal performance by Renaissance also hit the liberal shard at the EU level, with the Renew group it belongs to falling from 102 MEPs to 80.
This will all weaken Mr Macron's hand in wider, European Union policymaking, several diplomats told Reuters. "He is weakened in France, and in Europe even more," one diplomat said.
On the Olympics front, however, the International Olympics Committee was quick to say the snap election would have no impact.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin said today that it would closely watch the snap election in France given what it called the French leadership's "openly hostile" attitude towards Russia over the war in Ukraine.
