Polish opposition parties are tipped to win a parliamentary majority in Sunday's election that would end eight years of rule by the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, according to exit polls.
Former EU chief Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition could win 163 seats in the 460-seat parliament and two smaller parties, Third Way and Left, were set for 55 and 30 seats respectively, according to the exit poll.
That would give the three a majority of 248, while PiS is predicted to win 200 seats and the far-right Confederation, its potential coalition partner, was given only 12 seats by the Ipsos exit poll.
"Poland has won, democracy has won," a jubilant Tusk said after the exit poll was released, adding: "It is the end of this grim period. PiS's reign is over."
The 66-year-old Tusk served as Poland's prime minister between 2007 and 2014 and as European Council president between 2014 and 2019.
He has promised to restore good relations with the European Union and unblock EU funds frozen because of disputes under the past eight years of PiS government.
Tusk has also promised to legalise abortion - a major point of contention against the government which has emphasised traditional Catholic values.
Exit poll for Poland's parliamentary election (historically quite accurate): Law and Justice (PiS) remain the largest party, but 30 seats short of a majority. Civic Coalition (KO) more likely to form a majority with Left and centre-right Third Way. Clearer picture by morning pic.twitter.com/4mhH8apm6H
— Liam Nolan (@liamnolanRTE) October 15, 2023
PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, a 74-year-old political veteran whose late brother Lech was the president killed in a 2010 crash, said he still had "hope" that his party could form the next government.
But he added: "We will do everything possible to ensure that our programme continues to be implemented despite the coalition that is against us. This is not a closed road for the moment."
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Stanislaw Mocek, a political analyst at Collegium Civitas, said there was now "a chance for an opposition government to emerge.
"I think that this is actually the end of the PiS government... It is a chance for us to rebuild our position, first and foremost, in Europe," he added.
'Time for a change'
Turnout was high - with the exit poll estimating the national level at 72.9% - and AFP reporters saw crowded polling stations.
Many voters had expressed frustration with the government.
"It's time for a change," said Ewa Bankowska, a 43-year-old working in finance, told AFP as she voted in Halinow, a town just outside the capital Warsaw.
"I'm concerned about the economy. I would like us to develop and for the government to stop spending money it does not have," she said.
But Dorota Zbig, a 57-year-old nurse, said the last few years of PiS government "have been very good for me and my family and I hope everyone including young people votes reasonably".
PiS had vowed to press ahead with controversial reforms of the judiciary. It says they are aimed at rooting out corruption, but the EU argues they undermine democracy.
The row has blocked billions of euros in EU funding.
The most likely coalition partner for PiS was Confederation, a far-right party that has called for an end to Poland's large-scale assistance for Ukraine and has campaigned on a strongly anti-migrant platform.
But Confederation had publicly ruled out such an alliance and some analysts said it was unlikely to happen because of simmering tensions between the two parties.
The elections were for the lower and upper houses of parliament. The PiS also organised a referendum on the same day with leading questions on migrants and the economy, which the opposition called on people to boycott.
The campaign was characterised by personal attacks on Tusk by the ruling party, which has accused him of working in the interests of Germany, Russia and the EU.
PiS also ramped up anti-migrant rhetoric, with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki saying the country should be protected against illegal immigrants "who have no respect for our culture".
Ukraine and its Western supporters have also been watching the Polish elections closely.
Poland has been a leading cheerleader for Ukraine in the EU and NATO and has taken in a million Ukrainian refugees, but there is growing fatigue among many Poles.
The government has also fallen out with Ukraine over a grain import ban aimed at protecting Polish farmers.
