The Climate Change Advisory Council has said it is an absolute imperative that fossil fuel usage in Ireland must be phased out in 15 years or people and the economy will face profound costs.
It said that by 2040, Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions must be down to one third of the amount emitted in 2018.
For this to happen, emissions will need to be cut by at least 6.3% every year out to 2040.
Publishing its final carbon budget proposals for the period from 2031 to 2035, the Climate Change Advisory Council said Ireland has not risen to meet its climate change challenges and is currently set to miss its agreed carbon budget to 2030.
It said an urgent response to the crisis is now needed, which will entail a 67% cut to carbon emissions by 2040, and the most significant changes since the foundation of the State.
It will require changing how we heat our homes, how we move around, how we produce food and how we operate our businesses.
It warned this will be highly disruptive and initially expensive and that the burden will not be shared equally.
However, it urged the government to carefully manage the transition in an inclusive manner to ensure the potential impacts on people, communities and nature are properly addressed.
The Climate Change Advisory Council has called for strong political leadership to make the necessary investment, taxation and policy decisions to help Ireland capitalise on the transformational opportunity that a climate neutral society presents.
That transformation, it said, would deliver a more sustainable society, a cleaner environment, improvements to people’s health and well-being, and an opportunity to deliver energy independence and energy price stability for Ireland.
Yesterday, in a separate analysis, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland revealed that emissions from the transport sector would need to be permanently cut by 35% next year alone for that sector to stay within its existing 2025 carbon budget.
That would be more than twice the reduction in transport emissions achieved at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 when the entire country was under lockdown and people were confined to home.
The CCAC insists that the profound transformation it is now proposing out to 2040 is feasible with today's technologies.
However, it accepts that it poses a significant political and social challenge for the country.
Its stark warnings come as the impact of climate change throughout Ireland continues to rise with increased flooding, droughts and coastal damage, which is already having significant and costly consequences for people, communities and nature.
Carbon budgets set out a pathway for Ireland to achieve a climate-neutral and biodiversity-rich society before 2050, in which it no longer contributes to the increase in global temperatures.
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The Chair of the CCAC, Marie Donnelly, said: "A crucial step to help achieve this is for Government to prioritise investment and resources now, by phasing out harmful fossil fuels as early as 2039 and saving people and businesses money.
"This will help Ireland avoid future fines and compliance costs, provide the opportunity to deliver energy independence, reduce costs and help to maintain our competitive economy in a low carbon world, while building greater resilience to the impacts of climate change," she added.
Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Ms Donnelly said that "every single heating boiler in Ireland will have to be changed in the next 15 years because their lifespan is 15 years, so we're all looking at that decision.
"What we're saying is start thinking about it. Prepare for it. Plan for the expenditure to make the change to a transition at that stage.
"Likewise, the average car is on the road in Ireland for 15 years. We've one cycle left, now is the time to think about it, to plan for it and to prepare for the expenditure and the transition into an EV."
