The General Election campaign is coming to an end, and the three polls published since Sunday suggest a neck-and-neck race between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin for the largest party in the next Dáil.
We can assess the state of the parties and Independents in two ways.
The first option is to compare the latest poll from each survey institute. Research from over 350 elections in 45 countries has confirmed that polls tend to become more accurate as an election approaches. If the polls closest to the election date are most likely to reflect the outcome, it is reasonable to focus on the most recent poll from each survey company.
The second approach is to consider longer-term trends and aggregate polls using a statistical model.
Comparing the most recent polls
Three pollsters conducted their surveys online (Red C/Business Post, Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent, and Opinions/The Sunday Times), while Ipsos B&A (Irish Times) relied on face-to-face interviews. All polls were conducted since the start of the campaign. While the Opinions poll was carried out when the election was called, the Ireland Thinks, Ipsos B&A, and Red C polls were conducted and released within the last week.
The first graph displays the most recent polling results. Each dot represents the standing of a party or Independents in one of the four surveys.
Clicking on a dot reveals the survey company, the level of support, and the start and end dates of each survey.
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The graph reveals similar patterns across polls, with the spread of estimated support within each group remaining relatively small.
Polls are not always entirely accurate and can vary due to random chance, as they rely on a sample of voters. While pollsters use sophisticated methods to match the sample to the characteristics of the electorate as a whole, a gap of two to three percentage points between two surveys might simply fall within the expected margin of error, rather than indicating a real difference or change in opinion.
Estimated support for Fine Gael ranges from 19% (Ipsos B&A) to 23% (Opinions). The three polls released since Sunday indicate a drop in support of two to six percentage points compared to the same pollsters' previous surveys.
The polls suggest Fianna Fáil is at a very similar level, as all four polls point to support of 20% or 21%. Independents and other parties are also placed between 19% and 21%. While the Opinions/The Sunday Times poll from the start of the campaign estimates Sinn Féin at 18%, the three recent polls suggest support of 20%.
Estimated support for the smaller parties appears relatively stable across pollsters.
The Social Democrats are estimated at 5% or 6%. All four polls place Labour at 4%, while three of the four also have the Green Party at 4%.
Aontú is the only party with a slightly larger range. Estimated support ranges from 2% (Opinions) to 5% (Ireland Thinks). People Before Profit-Solidarity is placed at 2% or 3%. Only Red C polls explicitly list Independent Ireland, which their most recent survey estimates at 4%.
Aggregating opinion polls
In addition to comparing the most recent polls, we can aggregate them into a range of likely support.
Communicating uncertainty associated with polls is crucial, particularly in the lead-up to an election. Recent research by political scientists Werner Krause and Christina Gahn highlights that displaying uncertainty in polling estimates can shape voters' perceptions of potential election outcomes and may, in turn, influence voting behaviour.
The chart below is based on an aggregation of the 154 opinion polls conducted since the 2020 election, using the Irish Polling Indicator's statistical model. This model places greater weight on more recent polls and seeks to adjust for systematic differences between polling companies. Newly formed parties are grouped under the 'Independents/Other' category. The lines show the likely range of current support for first-preference vote intentions.
The aggregated estimates align with the distribution of polling results reported above. Estimated support for Fianna Fáil ranges from 20% to 23%, and for Fine Gael from 19.5% to 22.5%. Sinn Féin follows closely at 18.5%-20.5%, while Independents and other parties are estimated at 18%-21%.
The Social Democrats are projected to have support between 4.5% and 6%, similar to Labour at 3.5%-5% and the Green Party at 3.5%-4.5%. Support for Aontú is estimated between 2.5% and 4%, and People Before Profit–Solidarity is placed in the range of 1.5% to 2.5%.
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The influence of undecided voters
Even though recent polls and aggregated estimates present a fairly consistent picture, the election result could still differ from these numbers. Turnout is somewhat unpredictable, and many voters make their decisions in the final week.
For instance, the Ireland Thinks poll released on Sunday indicated that 31% of respondents might still change their first-preference vote intention before election day.
Similarly, the Ipsos B&A poll published on Monday found that 19% of voters remained undecided, while the latest Red C poll, released on Wednesday, reported that 7% of respondents had not yet made up their minds.
These findings align with evidence from the 2020 Exit Polls, which showed that 8% of voters made their decision on the day of the election. While the most recent polls suggest similar trends, late deciders could still impact the final outcome.
Further information
The Irish Polling Indicator website contains more interactive graphs and details on the statistical model.
Jennings, W., & Wlezien, C. (2018). Election polling errors across time and space. Nature Human Behaviour, 2(4), 276-283.
Krause, W., & Gahn, C. (2024). Should we include margins of error in public opinion polls? European Journal of Political Research, 63(3), 1082-1107.
Louwerse, T. (2016). Improving opinion poll reporting: The Irish Polling Indicator. Irish Political Studies, 31(4), 541-566.
Stefan Müller is an Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at University College Dublin.
During the campaign, he has presented insights and trends from the various opinion polls in his Poll of Polls analysis.
