Turnout at the 2020 General Election was historically low, and concerns have been raised about the possibility of turnout dropping below 60% this Friday.
Turnout is vital to democracy, but what factors contribute to high turnout? How does turnout in Ireland compare internationally? And which groups are more likely to vote?
The state of the parties
Before analysing voter turnout based on election data and surveys, we will briefly examine the state of political parties and Independents.
Today, the Sunday Independent released an Ireland Thinks poll, conducted online amongst a sample of 1,420 respondents, suggesting that the gap between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin has narrowed considerably since the start of the campaign.
The Irish Polling Indicator considers political parties included in the 152 opinion polls released since the 2020 election. These surveys asked people which party they would choose as their first preference, rather than assessing first-preference votes for candidates in their own constituencies.
New parties, such as Independent Ireland, have appeared in only a few polls and are merged into the 'Independents/Other' category.
The figure below displays the latest Irish Polling Indicator estimates with 95% uncertainty margins, indicating the likely range of current support in terms of first-preference vote intentions.
Fine Gael is estimated to stand at 21% to 24.5%. The four polls published during the campaign placed the party between 22% and 25%. Support for Fianna Fáil is predicted to range between 19% and 22.5%. Independents and other parties are estimated to have support of 18% to 22%, closely followed by Sinn Féin at 18.5% to 20.5%.
The Social Democrats are estimated to range from 4% to 5.5%, Labour from 3.5% to 5%, and the Green Party from 3% to 4.5%. Support for Aontú is estimated to be between 2% and 3.5%, while predicted support for People Before Profit-Solidarity ranges from 1.5% to 2%.
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Trends in voter turnout
Turnout is typically measured as the proportion of registered voters who cast a ballot. The chart below shows turnout in all Irish local and general elections since 1965.
Two trends stand out. First, turnout has been steadily declining. In the 1960s and 1970s, nearly 80% of registered voters participated in elections. By 2020, this figure had dropped to its lowest point since 1927, with turnout recorded at 62.9%.
Second, turnout in local and European Parliament elections is generally 10 to 15 percentage points lower than in general elections.
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How does Ireland compare internationally? The second graph shows turnout in the most recent parliamentary elections across the EU-27 member states.
Belgium and Luxembourg have the highest turnout rates. These countries also have compulsory voting, even though non-voting is not legally enforced. Turnout also exceeds 80% in Sweden and Denmark.
Eastern and southern European countries have the lowest levels of voter turnout. Ireland's turnout of 62.9% in the 2020 General Election is below the European average of 67%.
Research shows that turnout tends to be higher in smaller countries and those that use a form of proportional representation as their electoral system. Ireland meets both conditions, yet turnout levels are comparatively low.
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Inaccuracies in measuring turnout
Measuring turnout is relatively straightforward in most countries due to reliable electoral registers. These registers list individuals eligible to vote.
Art O'Leary, Chief Executive of the Electoral Commission, acknowledged "longstanding issues of some concern" with Irish the electoral register. Currently, the register includes some duplicates, deceased individuals, and emigrants.
While there has been no evidence of widespread abuse of the system, these duplicates could skew turnout figures. As some citizens are included in the register multiple times, the official turnout calculations based on the register generally understate voter participation.
For example, it may appear that individuals did not turn up to vote when they voted in another constituency.
The Electoral Commission has been tasked with streamlining Ireland's fragmented system of 28 separate electoral registers. The harmonisation of the register is urgently needed, but will not begin until after the general election.
Census-based data as an alternative measure of voter turnout
An alternative measure of turnout relies on the voting-age population (VAP) derived from the census rather than the electoral register.
A report from the Oireachtas Library and Research Service in 2016 estimated that using the VAP would increase turnout rates by 3 to 5 percentage points.
Based on these numbers, we could perhaps assume that turnout among the voting-age population in the 2020 General Election was not 63% (based on the electoral register), but closer to 68%.
Which factors affect turnout?
Abstention from voting can be categorised as either 'circumstantial' or 'voluntary'. Circumstantial abstention occurs when individuals are unable to vote due to external factors, such as illness or logistical challenges. Voluntary abstention refers to a deliberate choice not to vote, often driven by apathy or dissatisfaction with the available options.
Low voter turnout threatens the legitimacy of the democratic system, making it crucial to identify the groups that are less likely to participate in elections. Adrian Kavanagh at Maynooth University has studied variation in turnout across constituencies and regions.
Mr Kavanagh found that one significant predictor of turnout is homeownership. Areas with higher levels of homeownership generally see higher turnout, while renters tend to be less likely to vote. This finding is particularly important in the current climate, where renters are disproportionately affected by the housing crisis. Yet, if renters fail to turn out to vote, housing policies may favour homeowners.
More generally, turnout is lower in urban constituencies and working-class areas. This imbalance may lead to skewed policy outcomes that do not reflect the interests of economically disadvantaged groups.
Rainy days reduce turnout
Weather conditions on election day can also influence voter participation. Research by Abian Garcia-Rodriguez and Paul Redmond from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) shows that rainfall in a constituency on election day tends to decrease turnout by 2-3 percentage points.
Their analysis of all general elections from 1989 to 2016 also shows that rural areas, where voters tend to travel by car, are less affected by rain than urban areas, where people are more likely to walk or cycle.
Read more: The Poll of Polls and transfer patterns
The popularity and effects of postal voting
Even though the evidence is mixed, several studies suggest that postal voting can increase turnout.
Postal voting is highly restricted in Ireland, but has become very common in other countries. For instance, in the 2021 German federal election, 47% of voters chose postal voting over voting in person on election day, compared to just 21% in 2009.
Expanding postal voting would make the process more inclusive, supporting voters unable to participate on election day.
Theresa Reidy, a senior lecturer at University College Cork, recently proposed that postal voting in Ireland would be a practical measure to facilitate voter participation. However, it also presents logistical challenges due to late candidate nomination deadlines and short campaign periods.
Self-reported turnout in surveys
Surveys provide another source for studying turnout, but this method is not without its challenges. One issue is selection bias, as non-voters are less likely to participate in surveys in the first place. Another problem is social desirability bias, which means that individuals often seek to present themselves in a favourable light by providing socially acceptable but inaccurate responses. This bias may lead certain survey respondents to falsely claim they voted in the last election to conform to societal expectations.
Selection and social desirability bias are widespread when it comes to turnout. The latest wave of the European Social Survey, a cross-national survey conducted through face-to-face interviews every two years across Europe, reports self-reported turnout at 83% among Irish respondents, considerably higher than the 63% turnout observed in the 2020 general election.
We therefore need to keep in mind that turnout, according to surveys, does not reflect actual turnout at elections. That said, surveys still allow us to assess relative differences in turnout based on political views or personal backgrounds.
Satisfaction with democracy and turnout
A key factor frequently cited as affecting turnout is satisfaction with democracy. Respondents dissatisfied with the way democracy works in their country may lose interest in politics and choose not to vote.
The latest release of the European Social Survey covers 13 European countries. The Irish survey relies on 2,000 face-to-face interviews conducted between June 2023 and January 2024.
Respondents in all countries were asked to rate their satisfaction with democracy on a scale from 0 to 10, where higher scores indicate greater satisfaction. Satisfaction with democracy is highest in Scandinavian countries and Switzerland and lowest in the UK and central and eastern European countries. Ireland ranks somewhere in the middle of this spectrum.
In all 13 countries surveyed, respondents who did not vote in the most recent election reported lower levels of satisfaction with democracy than those who did vote.
The average Irish voter rated their satisfaction with democracy at 5.9 out of 10, compared to an average score of only 5.2 among non-voters. The gap in satisfaction between voters and non-voters is most pronounced in Germany, Finland, and Hungary.
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Age-based differences in turnout
Age is often considered a key factor affecting turnout. Older voters might have a stronger sense of 'civic duty' to vote, may have been socialised to vote, and are more likely to feel a connection to a political party or candidate.
The figure below shows the differences in self-reported turnout rates among respondents to the European Social Survey aged 18-34, relative to voters older than 60 years.
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Ireland is a striking example of an age-based turnout gap. Nine out of ten voters over the age of 60 reported that they voted in the last election (green circles), while only slightly more than half of respondents under the age of 35 claimed to have voted (blue circles).
Looking back at all ESS surveys conducted in Ireland since 2002, it is clear that the age gap in voting is not a new phenomenon. Over the past 20 years, self-reported turnout among voters over 60 has consistently surpassed that of 18-34-year-olds by approximately 30-40 percentage points.
The large age gap is problematic, as comparative research shows that people who vote for the first time when eligible tend to continue voting in future elections. In turn, young non-voters are much more likely to remain disengaged.
Consequences and conclusion
The evidence based on geographic differences and surveys shows that socio-economic factors, such as income and education, correlate with voter turnout.
When certain groups, particularly those from lower socio-economic backgrounds, are less likely to vote, their interests might be systematically overlooked in policymaking.
The age gap in turnout can pose additional problems. Many policy areas, such as housing, environmental protection, and pension reforms, require long-term solutions and disproportionately affect younger voters. If younger voters abstain, parties and candidates may prioritise the preferences of older voters, potentially to the detriment of younger generations.
Ultimately, high voter turnout reflects a thriving democracy, and we have observed encouraging developments. The Electoral Commission confirmed that over 115,000 new voters have registered since the start of November, and an additional 50,500 people updated their existing registrations.
The question remains: will the 2024 General Election mark a historic low in voter turnout, or will efforts to engage the electorate result in stronger participation?
Further information
The Irish Polling Indicator website contains more interactive graphs and details on the statistical model.
Gallego, A. (2007). Unequal political participation in Europe. International Journal of Sociology, 37(4), 10–25.
Garcia-Rodriguez, A., & Redmond, P. (2020). Rainfall, population density and voter turnout. Electoral Studies, 64, 102128.
Gerba, G. (2024). Unequal democracies. Who does (not) vote in Ireland? Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.
Kavanagh, A. & Durkan, W. (2020). Getting out the vote: what influences voter turnout? RTÉ Brainstorm. https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0114/1005247-voter-turnout-elections-ireland/
Marsh, M. Sinnott, R., Garry, J, & Kennedy, F. (2008). The Irish voter: The nature of electoral competition in the Republic of Ireland. Manchester University Press.
Ryan-Christensen, A. (2024). Should Ireland introduce early and postal voting? RTÉ Brainstorm. https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2024/1121/1480458-postal-voting-ireland-early-voting-european-countries-general-election-2024/
Skibba, R. (2024). Which is the fairest electoral system? Nature, 632, 280–283.
Stefan Müller is an Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at University College Dublin.
During the campaign, he will be looking at insights and trends from the various opinion polls in his Poll of Polls analysis.
