You'll be hearing a lot about polls in the weeks ahead. Opinion polls, the poll of polls, exit polls and the only poll that matters on voting day.
So in advance of the campaign proper, here's one academic’s look at some insights from elections past.
The race is heating up as the next general election draws near. Regular talking points around the campaign focus on voting behaviour and candidate characteristics:
- When do Irish voters make up their minds?
- Are candidates more important than party labels?
- Do voters no longer feel close to parties?
- How much do incumbency, local government experience, and family ties matter?
Let's dive into these questions by looking at data and cross-national evidence.
When do voters make up their minds?
Without a doubt, the campaign will be critical.
According to the 2020 RTÉ Exit Poll, 8% of voters made the final choice about their first-preference vote on election day. Another 44% of voters decided during the campaign. Only half of the respondents knew their first preference vote before the election was called.
Last-minute decision-making was even stronger in this year’s local and European Parliament elections.
According to the National Election and Democracy Study, 20% of respondents had decided on their preferred candidate during the last 24 hours for the local elections. An even higher figure emerged for the European Parliament elections, with 28% of voters deciding on election day or the day before.
Late decision-making is a phenomenon that has been around for a while. The graph below divides up respondents to Exit Polls from 1997 to 2020 into voters who decided during (left-hand side) or before the campaign (right-hand side of the graph).
In 1997, 52% made up their mind during the campaign, which is virtually identical to the patterns observed in 2020.
In 2011, the first election after the financial crash, over six in ten respondents made their voting decisions during the campaign period. These numbers indicate that parties and candidates can still keep, sway, or lose voters in the coming weeks.
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Candidates play a vital role
Do voters cast their ballots for candidates or parties? It’s often a mix of both.
The single transferable vote electoral system facilitates strong ties between voters and their local representatives. Candidate-centred voting is widespread. In Election Studies conducted between 2002 and 2016, around one in three Irish voters stated they would have supported the same candidate regardless of their party affiliation.
The 2020 Election Study suggests that purely candidate-centred voting has decreased, and party-centred voting has become more important. However, the popularity of Independents shows that candidate characteristics still matter a great deal.
As we would expect, those who value the candidate over parties are much more likely to give their first preference to an Independent.
Party identification is below the European average
Classic theories of voting behaviour assume that party identification, positions on issues and campaign promises, and voters’ socio-economic backgrounds predict political preferences.
Yet, we frequently hear that party identification has declined and is no longer a major driver of voting decisions.
Let’s investigate these developments and put Ireland in comparative perspective. Until the 1980s, more than half of Irish voters felt close to a political party. The most recent European Social Survey suggests that only 28% of Irish respondents felt close to a party.
Party identification in Ireland is lower than the European average. The graph below reports numbers from the latest iteration of the European Social Survey released this year. Across the 13 countries included in the dataset, 33% of respondents felt close or very close to a political party.
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The level of party identification in Ireland exceeds central and eastern European countries, but is lower than in most western and northern European countries.
For example, almost half of respondents in Norway and Finland feel close or very close to a party. Even in the Netherlands, a country with 15 parties represented in parliament, over 40% of survey respondents hold a party affiliation.
The low levels of party attachment in Ireland are not a recent development.
According to the first European Social Survey from 2003, only 23% held an affiliation to a party. For the past two decades, candidates have had to engage with voters who are detached from any specific party. Campaigns and door-to-door canvassing will again be crucial to sway the voters without strong party attachments.
Incumbency matters
The so-called incumbency advantage has been discussed extensively, especially after Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael performed better than expected in this year’s local elections.
How much does incumbency boost re-election chances?
We can answer this question by comparing the number of TDs who run again with those who get re-elected. In 2020, 75% of TDs who stood again defended their seats. The average re-election rate of incumbents since 1937 exceeds 80%. In other words, eight of ten TDs who ran also got re-elected, placing Ireland among the countries with the highest re-election rates worldwide.
Incumbency will be a major influence in the upcoming election, which could be a challenge for Fine Gael.
With 18 of its 35 TDs retiring, the party must field more newcomers, most of them councillors. In comparison, 19 of all TDs retired in 2020 and 20 in 2016.
The number of Fine Gael retirees is nearly as high as the total number of retired TDs after the last two legislative cycles. This unusual level of turnover within a single party could pose a challenge for Fine Gael in many constituencies.
Other routes to the Dáil
Name recognition is another key factor to electoral success, and being a local councillor makes it easier to establish links to the community. According to Michael Gallagher, Emeritus Professor at Trinity College Dublin, 82% of sitting TDs have served in local councils previously. Only five of the 48 new TDs elected in 2020 had no experience as councillors.
Family ties are a third crucial factor for electoral success besides incumbency and experience in local politics. Being a current or former TD's relative improves the changes of being recognised and winning a seat. In fact, Ireland is one of the most "dynastic democracies" in the world.
From 1944 to 2016, 25% of TDs were members of a political dynasty. 16% of TDs elected in 2020 followed the footsteps of a relative.
While there has been a decline in candidates with family ties, dynasties remain influential.
With the election approaching, understanding voter behaviour is crucial. Late decisions and low levels of party loyalty highlight the need for canvassing and effective campaigns. Experiences from past elections suggest that more than half of the electorate may still be undecided. Candidates have much to gain or lose.
Stefan Müller is an Associate Professor at the School of Politics and International Relations in University College Dublin.
In the weeks ahead, he will be looking at insights and trends from the various opinion polls in his Poll of Polls analysis.
