With almost of the tallies now in and several first counts completed we can now get a more accurate picture of first preference support across the country, and can adjust expectations about seat distributions based on the exit poll.
The big picture remains the same - the further dramatic erosion of the old pillars and the extraordinary fragmentation of the party system, writes Michael Marsh, Emeritus Professor, Trinity College Dublin.
With this unprecedented level of fragmentation seat projection remains a guesstimate.
But based on the typical link between seats and votes, Fine Gael can be expected to win 47 seats and Fianna Fáil 44 - a very small gap - with Labour on eight seats.
Between them they would have 99 of the 158 seats in the new Dáil. This is up from the projections from the exit poll as both Fine Gael and even more so Fianna Fáil seem to have been underestimated in that poll.
Eyes will be on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil who with a bare majority between them appear to be the only option for a government, even if that historic marriage is supplemented by the support of some of the smaller parties.
Exit Poll analysis: FG and FF poll less than 50% combined
Fianna Fáil, at 44 seats, sees a big increase in Dáil strength with its vote now significantly up on 2011 - if still very low in historical terms.
Similarly, Sinn Fein should win more seats, but a vote of just 14% is a long way below what might have been hoped for several months ago. It may finish up leading the opposition, but remains very much the third placed party.
These predictions may well be too favourable to some of the small parties whose votes may be spread too thinly, or concentrate on existing incumbents to capitalise on their votes to the extent expected.
If so, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil and perhaps Sinn Fein could each pick up a few more seats and with the gap just three between the first two, it could still close altogether.
These predictions are made on the basis of the typical votes/seats link at national level.
A second basis for prediction is the probability that a party will win seats in a constituency based on the proportion of the vote in wins, the number of candidates who contribute to that and the pattern of transfers.
On the basis of the exit poll, now weighted to take into account the support pattern in the tallies, below is a second set of predictions.
In past elections these have most often been closer to the outcome than the national pattern.
These predictions give fewer seats to smaller parties, which is closer to what looking at results constituency by constituency would suggest at the moment, and more to the biggest two, giving them 100/158 seats.
This is a much less proportional result, but with Ireland's small constituencies that is the price that has to be paid.
