Politics is a funny old business. One day Enda Kenny looks as though a gentle stroll will see him back in Government Buildings. Now he is giving everything he has to maintain his lead over the rest of the field, writes Brian Dowling of RTÉ's Political Staff.
While the Taoiseach is still pretty much in position to head the largest party – the big question now is: Will he have enough to form the government that opens the door to a second term?
Last September, I wrote a piece on this website that finished with the line:
"All things considered, Enda Kenny is still well placed to achieve a historic second term but he wouldn’t want to sleep too easy on it."
His dream of a renewed coalition with Labour now looks forlorn. And there might well be a few restless nights over the next few days.
Back in September, I was looking at a scenario – that was highly unlikely – but one that was not beyond the potential electoral outcomes.
The scenario was this: Fianna Fáil being in a position to lead an alternative Government with what seemed a politically impossible mix. That mix was Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, the Labour Party and some others. Several polls at that time suggested the three-party combination could get into the mid-70s in seat numbers.
On Professor Michael Marsh's latest poll of polls, taking account of yesterday's Red C, Behaviour & Attitudes and Millward Brown polls, he estimates the following seat numbers:
Fine Gael (55) and Labour (13) get to just 68 seats – a long, long way from the 80 needed.
Fianna Fáil (33), Labour (13) and Sinn Féin (29) get to 75 seats – touching distance to form a government. A few Independents or smaller parties would be needed.
Of course, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil would have enough seats (88) to form a stable government. If the numbers fall this way on election day, there will be huge pressure on the two parties to do just that.
But they have insisted forming a government together is out. Asked about this prospect on the RTÉ seven-way leaders' debate, the Taoiseach said: "Certainly not." Couldn't be much clearer than that, could it?
Equally, Micheál Martin has vehemently ruled out Fine Gael. His message is Fianna Fáil wants to lead an alternative government to "get this crowd out", as he puts it.
Both leaders have ruled out Sinn Féin and that party has also ruled out playing second fiddle to either of them.
That is the zero-sum game of the election. When the votes are counted, watch how fast the politicians move from zero-sum politics to the politics of addition and subtraction.
We have a few days to go and things might change. One party might strike out ahead of the field. Or it might remain pretty much as it is.
It is still Fine Gael's election to lose.
But how unlikely now is the prospect that Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil could face the following negotiating choice: Tánaiste in a coalition with Fine Gael or Taoiseach in a coalition headed by Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, the Labour Party and perhaps others?
How about sleeping on that for a few days!
