Poll of Polls Update: Labour and Fine Gael falling short

Saturday 06 February 2016 19.33
The Poll of Polls puts Labour and Fine Gael at 64 seats combined, well short of the key figure of 79 needed for a majority
The Poll of Polls puts Labour and Fine Gael at 64 seats combined, well short of the key figure of 79 needed for a majority

Two more polls to be published tomorrow from B&A for the Sunday Times and RED C for the Sunday Business Post gives us (with Thursday’s IPSOS MRBI Irish Times poll) three this week, with fieldwork all taking place on Monday and Tuesday, extending to Wednesday in the case of RED C.

These polls differ most with respect to the Fine Gael vote, with two polls putting Fine Gael at 28%, and RED C putting them at 31%, up on last week’s RED C figure.

However, this new set leaves the Poll of Polls figures essentially unchanged, with just marginal changes to the expected seats.

Labour and Fine Gael are at 64 combined, well short of the key figure of 79 needed for a majority.

The table below shows the current standing and seat estimates based on these vote shares.

However, as I have said before, the 40 seats for Others is probably an overestimate because this group comprises so many individuals and parties who are less likely to see their support transfer internally than will be the case for the main parties.

We can disaggregate this figure of 25% for Others as most recent polls have estimates for the various parties and groups making up this category.

On average, we have Greens 3, Renua 1, AAA-PBP 3, Social Democrats 2 and Independents Alliance 3, leaving Others at 13.

In the next Poll of Polls, I will take more account of these and produce a new estimate of seats for these parties and for the remaining group of Others.

By Michael Marsh, Emeritus Professor, Trinity College Dublin