Away from the big focus on the money questions the Taosieach has struggled to answer for two days now, I’m sensing worry from some Fine Gael backbenchers, writes Mícheál Lehane.
Enda Kenny not nailing the lines on the country’s finances is troubling them a little.
The latest support wobble in an opinion poll has them concerned that they just won’t make the 45-50% needed to get near two quotas in the three seaters and the 35-40% in the four seaters
Underpinning that fear is the view that the recovery has not spread to many rural areas. So the line about keeping the recovery going there does not hold up in the way it does in Dublin, Cork and Galway.
There’s also the realisation that on count day Labour eliminations outside the cities may not result in large transfers to Fine Gael.
That is because the Labour vote outside Dublin is a distinctive, slowly cultivated one that does not easily flow to Fine Gael.
Fianna Fáil and Independent gains in the local elections are also sparking fears.
Look at the challenge of holding two seats in: Cork South-West, Limerick, Longford-Westmeath, Meath West, Kerry, Galway East, Cavan-Monaghan and Tipperary.
This is even true in Limerick City where, if Kieran O’Donnell holds on, it will most likely be at the expense of Labour’s Jan O’Sullivan.
Some stark realities are beginning to emerge in Fine Gael minds right now, though they will never utter them.
These include the belief that it’s almost impossible for FG to win three in Mayo, there’s no chance of two in the five-seat Donegal and it’s a long shot in five-seat Dublin Fingal (constituency of the deputy leader).
Also the fact that the Taoiseach is unlikely to visit every constituency means that he will neither be on a grand tour or facing the media all the time.
That leads to the conclusion that much will rest on the TV and radio performances of the party’s heavy hitters.
The plus for Fine Gael is that they have more experienced ministers and media performers than the opposition parties.
This of course all comes with the warning that a shift in support as the campaign intensifies would radically alter this picture.
By Mícheál Lehane of RTÉ’s Political Staff
