Professor Philip Nolan has said that Covid-19 is "predominantly a disease of young, unvaccinated adults".
The chair of NPHET's Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group said that there are very high incidences of the disease in adults and adolescents aged 16-29, and they have dominated case counts over the last period of time.
Today, the department was notified of 1,571 further coronavirus cases.
There are 307 people with the virus being treated in hospital, which is down 11 from yesterday. The number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care stands at 55, down five.
Prof Nolan told a Department of Health briefing that there is a large force of infection in the young, unvaccinated adult population, which is pushing out in two directions. Firstly in those older vaccinated adults - aged 65 and older - which he said is "a concern".
He also told the briefing that equally, it is forcing infection into the younger unvaccinated children.
Over 70% of the cases reported today are unvaccinated or partly vaccinated, he said.
#Covid19 is now 'predominantly a disease of young unvaccinated adults' Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, says. Over 70% of cases reported today are in unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people | https://t.co/SjjVx0oTz0 pic.twitter.com/B1fVBcoOCn
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) August 24, 2021
Prof Nolan said that NPHET is seeing an excess of 10,000 cases per week on a persistent basis which he said was "a very significant burden of disease".
He said the numbers in intensive care have risen quite sharply over the last two weeks.
Prof Nolan told the briefing that the incidence rate in children is similar to middle-aged vaccinated adults.
He said it appears from data that children under 12 are less susceptible to infection than older adolescents and adults.
Prof Nolan said data from when schools opened and closed showed little or no change in incidence rates of the disease.
He said what is interesting is that when secondary schools closed, the incidence rate in primary schools fell and immediately after the Leaving Cert exams, the incidence in those aged 16-18-years-old rose rapidly.
The briefing heard that there is a "significant and slowly increasing burden of disease in the population".
Prof Nolan said that the burden of the disease is currently and going to present a challenge to the health service for "some weeks to come".
#Covid19 incidence is 'high across all counties', Professor Philip Nolan says, with rates especially high in border counties | https://t.co/SjjVx0oTz0 pic.twitter.com/fxuoy8ax8U
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) August 24, 2021
He said the good news is that vaccination is offering very high levels of protection and that 90% of the population or more have had their first vaccine dose.
However, Prof Nolan said that when you look at the number of people who are one or two weeks beyond their second dose, "therefore with immune protection, it is 75% of the adult population".
He said it is less than 50% in those aged 16-29 who have that maximum protection.
"In that context we need to be concerned that we keep the disease under control over the coming weeks."
Incidences of the disease are high across all counties, with the 14-day cumulative incidence greater than a thousand per 100,000 in three counties - Monaghan, Donegal and Cavan.
The Director of the UCD National Virus Reference Laboratory has said that in relation to new variants, they are continuing to monitor what is in circulation and "there's nothing at this point that is causing undue concern".
Dr Cillian De Gascun told the briefing that the Delta variant of Covid-19 seems to have a signficant transmissibility advantage over anything else they have seen to date.
He said that at the moment, Delta is very transmissible but the vaccines are very effective against it.
Dr De Gascun said that the risk of a new variant emerging is greater the longer we leave large swathes of the global population without a vaccine.
The key is that as many people worldwide get vaccinated as soon as possible, he said.
On other variants of #Covid19, @CillianDeGascun says 'There's nothing in particular at this point that is causing undue concern. Delta seems to have a significant transmissibility advantage over pretty much everything else that we've seen to date' | https://t.co/SjjVx0oTz0 pic.twitter.com/24lGcUsuqS
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) August 24, 2021
'Extremely high incidence' of virus circulating
The Chief Medical Officer has said that there is a "extremely high incidence" of the coronavirus circulating in communities.
Dr Tony Holohan that on average 1,814 confirmed Covid-19 cases have been reported per day for the last five days, and that the 14-day incidence rate is now 526 per 100,000 population.
He has appealed for people to continue wearing face coverings in indoor settings.
The Department of Health briefing heard that there was a sharp increase in the incidence of the virus at the beginning of July, followed by a period of stability. Prof Nolan said that the same happened in August and we are now in "what appears to be a period of renewed stability".
The figures show "a dynamic between very significant levels of social mixing and a very successful vaccination programme," he said.
Prof Nolan said they expect to see over the coming weeks, case counts slowly plateau towards a peak sometime in September. He also said that getting case numbers and the number of patients in hospitals under control afterwards depends on the height of the peak.
He said that there is a dynamic difference between this wave of the virus and previous waves, during which there was a rapid exponential rise and a rapid exponential decline, brought about by stringent public health restrictions.
He told the briefing that we are now dealing with "a long slow wave of disease, which is going to last some considerable number of weeks".
NIAC finalising advice over vaccine boosters
In relation to vaccine boosters, Dr Holohan said that the National Immunisation Advisory Committee is still finalising its advice.
He said that some preliminary adivce has been received, and that it will not come as a surprise if those who are immunocompromised need a third dose.
Dr Holohan said that NIAC is giving ongoing consideration on boosting other groups.
He was asked at the briefing if he shares the same optimism as the Minister for Health who said that he expects all restrictions to be eased by Christmas.
The Chief Medical Officer said it is going to be well into September before the vaccination programme is completed.
He said that over the course of the last week and month, NPHET expressed hope and optimism that the disease critieria would fit in with that time period. However, he said that unfortunately Ireland has one of the highest disease rate incidences in the EU.
The National Public Health Emergency Team will meet tomorrow to consider what advice it will give to the Government ahead of the publication of a road map next week on the next phase of reopening.
