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6 things we learned from today's Covid-19 briefing

Updated / Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 18:24
'If we were at the EU average at the moment, we would be reporting over 1,800 cases a day,' Dr Ronan Glynn said this evening (Pic: Rolling News)
'If we were at the EU average at the moment, we would be reporting over 1,800 cases a day,' Dr Ronan Glynn said this evening (Pic: Rolling News)

'Substantial increase' in number of social visits to households

Professor Pete Lunn of the ESRI's Behavioral Research Unit told today’s briefing that there has been "a substantial increase" in the number of people engaging in social visits to people’s houses.

Figures from the ESRI’s Social Activity Measure survey showed that the number of adults engaging in such visits jumped from 5% to 11.5% from the end of January to the second week of March.

He said while this was a minority of the population, it "translates to an increase every single day of between 150,000 and 250,000 adults".

Prof Lunn said that this coincides very closely with the stalling in the decline in the number of case numbers.

Marginal rise in R number from 5 April could mean 1,000 cases a day in late June

The Chair of the National Public Health Emergency Team's Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group outlined a number of modelling scenarios, as the reproductive number of the virus drifts towards 1.3.

Professor Philip Nolan said from 5 April, if the R number increased marginally from its current point, the country would see cases increasing slowly to about 1,000 cases a day into late June and early July.

Prof Nolan said if a slow or medium increase in close social contact happened from 5 April, it would be highly likely to lead to a "very significant" surge in disease.

He said even an increase to 1.5 would, between 5 April and the end of September, lead to Ireland seeing around 200,000 additional cases.

Appeal for those who decide to meet up against advice to do so outside

Dr Glynn told the briefing he is aware that people who are not vaccinated are visiting households at the moment and are not wearing masks.

He appealed to people who are set on doing this to meet up outdoors, to keep their distance, and wear masks in places where physical distancing was not possible.

He said he was not surprised that it was happening, as people have been coping with measures for over a year, and appealed for people who are intent on meeting others to do so outdoors

"Now more than ever, it would be such a shame over the coming days, for families or households that meet up, and vulnerable people in those households were to get infected with this virus, when these are the very same people who will be offered a vaccine over the next four to six weeks," he said.

Dim hope for normal summer for continental Europe without change in trajectory

Dr Glynn said that if people can stick with the measures for another few weeks, then the prospect of a fourth wave could be eliminated.

That best-case scenario would allow for more options to reopen in the months ahead, and give people in Ireland a chance for a "normal summer".

Countries across Europe, however, could prove different, with Dr Glynn saying if they continue on their current path, they would not have a normal summer.

"The last thing we want is to follow that pattern," he said.

He added: "We suffered much more than many other countries in January, and we need to do all we can to avoid that in the coming weeks, and in doing so, the impact of vaccination will have a more profound effect here more quickly than many other countries, because they'll be coming down off a much higher level of disease.

"If we were at the EU average at the moment, we would be reporting over 1,800 cases a day."

Hospital situation remains static

The Chair of the National Public Health Emergency Team's Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group told the briefing that the country is in a "stable but precarious" situation, with no significant change in the last ten days.

Prof Philip Nolan described the situation as "static", adding that while the situation was not getting any worse, it also was not getting any better.

He said case numbers have been between 500-600 for the entirety of March, which is translating into steady admissions of between 20-25 people per day to hospital.

Variant sees risk with any contact up 30-80% compared to October

Prof Nolan said if the country did not have to deal with the B117 variant, and maintained current restrictions, the reproduction number would currently stand at 0.8.

He told the briefing that the risk associated with any contact today is 30-80% higher than the risk associated with the same contact in October, because B117 is a more transmissible variant.

He also said he believes people understand they are dealing with a new variant and so the rules have changed.

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