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Bye-elections: 5 takeaways as Soc Dems and FG take seats

Seán Kyne celebrating his victory in Galway West with supporters
Celebrations at the Galway West count centre after Seán Kyne was deemed elected

The votes have been counted and the dust is settling on the bye-election campaigns in Dublin Central and Galway West.

The Social Democrats' Daniel Ennis and Fine Gael's Seán Kyne will head to Leinster House to officially become TDs.

But what are the takeaways from the count weekend?


1: Soaring Soc Dems

Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns has hailed the bye-election results as a "monumental day" for her party after Daniel Ennis' stunning victory.

While his win was tipped by many pundits, few expected him to the top the poll in the backyard of Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald.

What was striking throughout the Dublin Central count was the number of transfers the Social Democrats attracted from all over.

The former League of Ireland footballer started off 555 votes ahead of his nearest challenger, Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan, on the first count.

By the end of play, his lead over Ms Boylan stood at 4,263 votes as he proved a sponge for transfers.

He accrued around a third of Labour Party candidate Ruth O'Dea’s votes upon her exclusion but also roughly the same number from the Government candidate, Fine Gael's Ray McAdam.

Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns, Dublin Central by-election candidate Daniel Ennis and sitting Dublin Central TD Gary Gannon
Daniel Ennis (C) topped the poll in Dublin Central

On the final count, the Green Party's Janet Horner gave the Social Democrats a whopping 68.7% of her vote.

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich also proved attractive for transfers in Galway West for the Social Democrats.

The party’s win moves them onto 12 Dáil seats - one ahead of The Labour Party.

This means the party will get a more prominent speaking slot in the Dáil - including during Leaders' Questions.

2: Kyne bucks the trends

Government parties don't win bye-elections.

The poll topper always wins.

Maigh Cuillin's Seán Kyne didn't read the script, as he delivered Fine Gael just the fourth win for a government party in a bye-election since 1982, and a first since 2014.

The former government chief whip reeled in Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas before overtaking him on the final count.

Interestingly, he took a 50% transfer from Fianna Fáil - with the civil war parties now firm electoral friends.

It's a dramatic reversal of fortune for Mr Kyne, who had announced his intention to retire from national politics after the 2024 general election.

Overall, it was a good weekend's work for Fine Gael.

The party received the highest first preference vote of any political party when the two constituencies are combined.

Fine Gael candidate Sean Kyne celebrates with Peter Burke (left) and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris
Seán Kyne's victory was a rare win for a government party in a bye-election

Ray McAdam seems in a relatively good position to regain Pascal Donohoe's old seat at the next general election.

Fine Gael Party leader Simon Harris said the results represent a mandate for him to do better and do more.

However, it's unclear as to the deeper meaning of this victory for Fine Gael as Mr Kyne benefited from his 22-year record as a public representative while the left vote in the constituency was split in too many directions.

Still, it is a substantial fillip for Mr Harris and firmly puts the turbulent ending of the 2024 general election in the rearview mirror.

Mr Harris spoke at the count centre of the strength of the Fine Gael organisation, who will be enthused by this success.

The win also adds to the political CV of Mr Kyne's Director of Elections, Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke, who spent every second day in the constituency during the campaign.

Interestingly, Fine Gael also won the last bye-election before this weekend to be held following the election of a president, when Smithborough's Brendan Toal won the seat vacated by Fianna Fáil's Erskine Childers in 1973.

3: Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil struggles

It was not a good weekend for Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil.

Sinn Féin failed to win a seat in Mary Lou McDonald's home constituency while Mark Lohan's vote in Galway West was lower than expected at 6%.

The party has faced tough electoral days in the past - such as the 2024 local elections - and recovered.

However, this might sting differently as it comes off the back of the party's consistent criticism of the Coalition on how to deal with the rising cost of living, the very issue opinion polls suggest is the one that matters most to voters.

Wicklow-Wexford TD Fionntán Ó Súilleabháin acknowledged his party was disappointed with its performance.

Taoiseach Micheal Martin at the Galway West count centre.
Fianna Fáil received its lowest vote in Dublin Central

Prominent frontbench member Louise O'Reilly insisted Mary Lou McDonald is here to stay - despite previous murmurings around her leadership prior to the party's Ard Fheis earlier this month.

It will be interesting to see how the party reacts.

Fianna Fáil Minister of State Timmy Dooley was doing his best to put a positive spin on the party's bye-election results, commending the candidature of 24-year-old Cillian Keane.

However, some TDs believe the results represent a "dark day" for Fianna Fáil after the party slumped from winning 44% of the vote in Dublin Central in 2007 to just 4% yesterday - a historic low.

The party's vote in Galway West dipped below 9% - a constituency where it won three seats out of five in 1981 and 1982.

Arch Micheál Martin critic James O'Connor has said any talk around the leadership now on the cusp of the EU Presidency would be corrosive.

But that doesn't mean there won't be some unhappy Fianna Fáil TDs in Leinster House this coming week.

None of the party's votes dipped as low as Independent John O'Leary in Dublin Central.

His 13 first preferences is the lowest vote ever recorded in a Dáil bye-election.

4: Vote Left-Transfer Left

A United Left platform helped propel Catherine Connolly to Áras an Uachtaráin.

But the same platform seemed to unravel somewhat in the race to fill President Connolly's seat.

The combined votes of Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats, the Labour Party, People Before Profit, the Green Party and left leaning Independents came in at 36% in the 2024 general election.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald at the RDS.
Sinn Féin polled 6% first preference votes in Galway West, while its candidate in Dublin Central failed to top the poll

But this dropped to 31% in the bye-election.

Interestingly, Sinn Féin's votes didn't fully remain with the left with 18.6% of Mark Lohan's votes going to Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas.

Both the Labour Party and the Social Democrats will eye up taking back Catherine Connolly's seat for the left at the next general election.

But a more disciplined approach might be needed when it comes to voting strategy.

5: One more go?

There was no success again this time for Independent Gerard Hutch.

The man described in the Special Criminal Court as the leader of the Hutch Organised Crime Group saw his vote share go up yesterday compared to 2024.

However, his number of first preferences was down.

His attempt at going one better than last time ultimately fizzled out as the count reached its business end - depriving political watchers of the drama of the 2024 count.

Although on yesterday's figures, the man known as 'The Monk' could take a seat at the next general election.

His 11.3% of the vote combined with the 9% accrued by Independent Malachy Steenson suggests a candidate outspoken on immigration could prosper next time.

Mr Hutch has indicated he will run in the next general election.

But if that is in 2029, one wonders will he have the same political momentum he has managed to generate since the winter of 2024.